BSF 'Doldrums': Figure Dives

[Kasept]

Via Steve Haskin with me on ATRAB...

Beyer Associates has trimmed the Whirlaway figures, where Summer Doldrums earned a 106, down to a 94 a month after the race and in the wake of the Rick Violette trainees' 3rd place showing in the Gotham.

The rub here is that Violette had been specifically quoted after the Whirlaway as saying he was training up to the Gotham lightly with Summer Doldrums BECAUSE of the big Beyer figure he had earned in the prep...

Needless to say, Violette was rather animated upon learning of the revisions this afternoon...

[saucon17]

How do they screw something like the BSF that bad up for a horse.
It's bad they messed up by 12 pts., but it's worse to fix after the
horse runs another race after it and had weeks to fix it. You have to
wonder how man other horses have screwed Beyers.

Good show today Steve on ATRAB

[Thoroughbred Fan]

I 've said this before. A whole lot of BSFs are adjusted after the fact. It is just the way it is. The sad thing is there is a trainer out there basing his training of a horse on them. LOL! Way to go RV!

[the_fat_man]

Must suck being a trainer and having your horses' training schedule dictated by someone's NUMBERS.

That's funny.

[ArlJim78]

Its only one example of why you have to use those numbers with a little caution.

[cmorioles]

It is a little ridiculous to adjust it this late. In fairness, it was a tough number to make, but changing it based on what horses do next out is more than silly. The horse won on an ultra souped up rail unchallenged on the lead, so chances are he was going to run his best ever lifetime race. It also wasn't any surprise to those with any knowledge when he didn't come close to matching the number in the Gotham.

Now, he has the horse dropping from a 94 to an 83 or so. Seeing that he sat on the rail in the prior race, and was three wide on both turns in the Gotham, Beyer is saying the races were pretty much the same. Throw in that in the second that the pace was pretty slow, and one could argue (based on the current Beyers) that the horse ran just as well in the Gotham. No way in hell is that the case.

[Dunbar]

I'd like to hear what Beyer has to say about this. How can they have been wrong by 12 pts, which is something like 7 lengths!? I'm a bigger fan of the BSF's than most people here, but this is ridiculous. Revising a fig AFTER a subsequent race (and perhaps BECAUSE of the poor performance in the subsequent race) reminds me of the way dosage is back-fitted.

Did they actually say that they had re-evaluated the fig because of the Gotham? Either way, it's ludicrous.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Kasept

The rub here is that Violette had been specifically quoted after the Whirlaway as saying he was training up to the Gotham lightly with Summer Doldrums BECAUSE of the big Beyer figure he had earned in the prep...

Needless to say, Violette was rather animated upon learning of the revisions this afternoon...

If a trainer uses Beyer numbers (or any other numbers) other than timing in works, he is not doing his job because he is not around the horse enough WATCHING the animal. Im sorry, but any trainer worth his fee has got to know what he is dealing with. And if he cant figure a horse out, the humane thing to do is give the animal up to another trainer who can spend time with the horse and can read the animal's needs... Enough so that the trainer has enough guts to say to an owner, "In my opinion, this animal has no business running, I dont care how much money you spent on the horse..." and then explain the reasoning followed by suggestions on second opinions. But of course if the trainer asked the owner to purchase the animal then, well then, you have a bit of a quandry stating the above, which is a huge part of the problem.

The trainers who quote the Rags and all (and almost all of them do...) I would rather hear what the horse has done AS SEEN BY THE TRAINER IN PERSON in the past 1 or 2 months to warrant dropping out or entering a race. What the hell is wrong with "I have not a clue why the horse did not run well. We will watch a while, and give it another shot... or the animal does not have the inclination to run, and I dont know how to get the animal to run..."

WTH happened to horsemanship? This is supposed to be done by people that know the animals. Do you have to take a training course on reading thoros and Rags and such to get a trainers license...? I hope not.

Heck. A race might look like a walk in the park on video, but may have been hell on the horse, or vice versa. Trainers should not need numbers to tell them this.

Then again, I might be reading this all wrong because the press may just quote the numbers, not what the trainer has actually said about the condition of the horse as seen by the trainer. All the two preps v. 3 preps, the trainer should know the horse and adjust accordingly.

[PPerfectfan]

This whole, going back and changing numbers is stupid. If its your system, stick by it. And if we can all have "Do Overs", I want a "do over" in the Powerball tonight. I got the right numbers now. I promise I will act surprised.

[MisterB]

And you wonder why some people like me toss that Beyer crap in the circular files. They mean nothing at all.

[Kasept]

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's an inexact science.

This is close as I tend to agree, but I don't think science plays any part in future results.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

Steve dont get caught up in justifing both of them. ATF is one thing but why wait untill the next race? RV might be a great horseman but he sure said something dumb. Both sure lost some creditability. The more they try to explain it the dumber they look.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

I agree with you Steve. Speed figures are opinions that are based upon facts. The numbers that they assign are not exact and adjusting them is a good thing in the long run. I do find it a little troublesome when trainers are using speed figures to explain weak performances BEFORE the race actually occurs. Also it is not a great trend when trainers/owners are so insistent that a non-winning race in a derby prep is "exactly what we were looking for".

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

This is what I wanted to say, but of course you said it better. I agree they must make the corrections. It helps people to understand those particular performances better and it also helps people to understand how the figures are arrived at and therefore should improve their use of the figures.

I think the ammendments/corrections should be prominently published when they occur. No sense trying to sweep this under the carpet.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

This was WAY too long to wait to revisit a BSF. And, if it was truly based on Summer Doldrum's subsequent race in the Gotham, then the revision is completely indefensible. If Beyer is going to rely on future races to adjust his earlier figs, then the whole process becomes circular and meaningless. (If Summer Doldrums wins by open lengths against CQ, Ravel or some other major contender next time out, will Beyer be revising his figs up again?!)

Human error occurs, no doubt about it. I'm not demanding perfection. But future performance should not be an excuse to revisit earlier speed figs.

I don't understand why Beyer Assoc feels the need to get the figs out so quickly after a race. It's not like those horses are going to come back on 2 days rest. It would be better to take a little more time with it in the first place and cut down on the error rate.

--Dunbar