Using Beyer Speed Figures

[Zippy Chippy]

I was listening to today's ATRAB broadcast, and Steve said that there is no such thing as a stupid question . . . hopefully I don't prove him wrong . . .

I just got done with reading Picking Winners, and of course Beyer tells all about how he came up with his speed figures and how he creates them. I understand the concept, and I guess half of the work is done because the figures are already calculated and printed in DRF. I'm a newb, and I have heard and read about people "misusing" the speed figures when handicapping. I guess my question is, what is the "right way" to use Beyer speed figures?

Again, I apologize for the newb question-- I just want to make sure that I understand them correctly. All respondents will win a free Santa Anita t-shirt

[philcski]

Zippy, the best use of Beyers (or speed figures in general) is to make a first cut and determine who "belongs" and their relative rank within the field.

To use an extreme example for the first part, if a horse has run 10 times at the distance and has run Beyers of 50-60 but it takes a 75 to win in this class today, he's a pretty easy exclusion to all wagers.
Realistically, the decisions are much more fine line. If a horse in a MSW at 6F has run 4 times with Beyers of 60, 65, 63, and 68- but par (and the favorite) is 75- does he have a chance? That is up to you to decide, but the short answer is if you're getting 20-1 you would take it but if you're getting 3-1 you might not. How much can you expect him to move up off of the last races? How were those figures earned? Has he worked well since then? Is he adding medication or equipment? A better jockey? A better pace scenario? A more favorable distance or track? A better post position? The answer, most likely, is yes to some and no to others. Projecting TODAY'S likely result (and speed figure) is much more important than what happened in the last race, or the race before that.

Betting on Beyers or speed figures blindly isn't a road to profitability but it's a good starting point to focus your study.

[Labeeb]

Never offer anything free to horseplayers...you're bound to run into spinners.

But in all seriousness, the advice offered above is sound for a foundation from which to understand figures, how to apply them, and learn about racing. As you progress in your education, you'll desire slightly more sophisticated tools. But the BSFs are probably an OK place to start.

[Dunbar]

Just to add a couple of things to philscki's very good response...

The Beyer's are your starting point. You know from reading the book that they don't take trip problems or bias into account. If you think a horse lost 3 lengths by being checked in its last race, then you can adjust the BSF for that race up by about 5 points if it was a route race, less if it was a sprint. If you think there was a good rail bias all day and the horse you are capping ran along the rail, you should adjust the BSF down. How much? That's the tough part.

I actually work in "beaten lengths". I take an average of the BSF's for each horse's last 2-3 races, weighing the most recent race more heavily, then convert the difference between those averages to "beaten lengths". (If the hightest horse has an 80 ave and another a 77 ave, I'd use 5 beaten lengths for the 2nd horse if it's a route race.). Once I am working in lengths, I can adjust the lengths according to trip factors from the previous races, again weighting the most recent race more heavily. I can also give lengths of credit for how the horse's running style fits today's race. If it is the lone speed, I will credit it with some lengths. If it is running from post 12, I will debit some lengths, depending on the horse's style and the particular oval. You get the idea. The BSF's give me a good starting point for making these adjustments.

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Zip,
These are all good answers.. A fairly new player needs to be able to identify reasonable contenders. Using speed figs -- whatever they are -- is a great starting point, especially in races for older horses with established form. Among the simplest ways to do this is to take each horse's last 3 figs from races run at similar distances/class. If a horse's worst figure isn't good enough to beat the average of the middle figures for the top 3-4 other horses in the field, he's probably not fast enough to win.

There's tons of ways to use speed figures. I don't advocate you betting based solely on what I described, but it's a decent sort of exercise for a fairly new bettor. The key is to get used to using figures in a somewhat disciplined manner and to try and see what happens when you vary your approach. You'll find your way.

Good luck.

[pmacdaddy]

I would also add that I think the Speed Figs can be very helpful in reading form patterns a given horse exibits. If PP's show that a horse runs a lower speed figure off layoff, followed by an improved effort second or third off, it can be useful. Other horses may exibit a two good efforts, clunker, two good good efforts clunker, etc. For me the speed figs really bring this to the surface.

I also think they are very good to point out when a horse is ready to bounce, often 10+ point improvement between races IMO (especially in the young guys/gals).

There are usually lots of other factors to consider, but I think speed figs are a great place to start when looking at a race.

Best of luck. This site is a great resource.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Labeeb

Never offer anything free to horseplayers...you're bound to run into spinners.

Well done.