My Derby throw-outs

ceejay · #1 04-17-2007, 11:24 AM

No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:

Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
Did not start as a 2yo

By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

SniperSB23 · #2 04-17-2007, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:

Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
Did not start as a 2yo

By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 04-17-2007, 11:40 AM

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

smuthg · #4 04-17-2007, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

Mortimer · #5 04-17-2007, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg

Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

He thought he had tether ball figured out,too.

Java Gold · #6 04-17-2007, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

hockey2315 · #7 04-17-2007, 02:10 PM

I REALLY wanna toss Curlin. . . but. . . I am almost positive that he's the most talented horse in the race, and I think he MAY have the immense amount of talent it would take to overcome a severe lack of foundation/experience. . . 7/2 is making it easier for me to toss him though. . .

SentToStud · #8 04-17-2007, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

blackthroatedwind · #9 04-17-2007, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

When I read that post I couldn't help but think of the line from " Positively 4th Street "....

Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is
To see you

blackthroatedwind · #10 04-17-2007, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

I wish you booked all his bets.

JJP · #11 04-17-2007, 07:48 PM

Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #12 04-17-2007, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

call me crazy, and im sure alot of you will, but im hoping belgravia runs huge this weekend and then goes to the derby, because with his style i truly belive he could have a impact on the race.....by a impact i mean make the superfecta

brianwspencer · #13 04-17-2007, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're crazy

Well, since Storm in May is the Derby winner, we can just stop all of these discussion right here and now. Get with the program DH.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #14 04-17-2007, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're crazy

the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

Cajungator26 · #15 04-17-2007, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

Yep, you're crazy.

Danzig · #16 04-17-2007, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

who needs the three stooges?? laugh a minute around here.

JDank34 · #17 04-17-2007, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

That's what every GOOD horse needs on his resume...a win over Slotional

Danzig · #18 04-17-2007, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't even know if I have the energy to go here right now. He beat Notional at 7 furlongs, so what. He hasn't been out all year and his starts keep getting pushed back further and further. He has never been on dirt, never won around two turns and you expect him to win Saturday and then two weeks later crack the super in the 20 horse possible Derby? Besides Biancone saying they are not going to the Derby it just flat out makes no sense. This is almost as bad as the Time Squared thought. What is it with you and Biancone horses?

the cologne maybe?

ceejay · #19 04-17-2007, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

If Curlin beats me as a 7/2 or so favorite, so be it. I won't take those odds to break a 14+ or actually 125 year trend. I remember Bellamy Road.

I also think that the second choice, Street Sense will be underlaid at ~9/2.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #20 04-17-2007, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

If Curlin beats me as a 7/2 or so favorite, so be it. I won't take those odds to break a 14+ or actually 125 year trend. I remember Bellamy Road.
I also think that the second choice, Street Sense will be underlaid at ~9/2.

I couldn't agree more! If he's that good, I tip my hat to him...but less than 8-1...Forget It !!!!!!