How Bad is this Derby Betting Strategy?

[Late Fires]

Say I have $400 that I'm willing to lose on the Derby.

I have four horses that I've selected as the most likely winners (call them #1-#4) and four others that I think have the best chance to hit the board behind those winners (call them #5-#8). Do you think betting the race as follows makes sense:

$1 Exactas:
1/All; All/1
2/All; All/2
3/All; All/3
4/All; All/4

$1 Trifectas:
1/2-8/2-8
2/1,3-8/1,3-8
3/1,2,4-8/1,2,4-8
4/1-3,5-8/1-3,5-8

[hockey2315]

The exactas don't really make sense. . .

You could do something like

1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

That's only $28/$1. . . and you could reverse it too if you want. . .


I agree with alot of people on here that the best bet is to key a horse in all three tri spots with 8-10 others. . . It's a little expensive though

[tycharles01]

No reason to hit the ALL button in the Derby. There are gonna be 7-10 horses who will be throw out just based on POST and PACE

[theiman]

If your wager is $400 stick with tri's

Even if you hit a $600 exacta that isnt much profit.
You are almost certain with the pools to get a tri of over $1000 unless it chalks out.

Derby Day pools are when you can go for the gusto as the rewards are more often than not much better than all other races.

[Late Fires]

Appreciate everyone's feedback so far.

My thinking is that the trifectas are really the central part of the play. If I've handicapped the race correctly, I'll have the tri and the exacta, and given the size of the pools and the horses I like, I'm guaranteed a good payout.

I agree that I should be able to toss 10-12 horses, but given the field size and unpredictable nature of the race, anything can happen. The exacta wheels give me an out and a chance to make some money back if I've totally missed the boat.

Again, there could be smarter ways to play it, so I appreciate the input.

[slotdirt]

Well, if you take the average exacta the last few years, spending a couple hundsky to make a bunch more isn't an entirely bad strategy. But that's just me and I stink.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

No reason to hit the ALL button in the Derby. There are gonna be 7-10 horses who will be throw out just based on POST and PACE

I once thought this way and there may be something to it, but I wouldn't have put Giacomo or Closing Argument in my top 8-10. I argued til I was blue in the face with a guy about Bluegrass Cat last year about having him in a trifecta that was 6 deep in second. How about Invisible Ink running second? I had him, but unfortunately singled PG on top of everything I bet that day.

Back to the original question, if you total the numbers of the last 9, you would have a huge return with a simple all/all exacta. Now that is greatly inflated by Giacomo's $9600 bomb, but still you make money in 8 of 9 years. While this isn't the approved betting strategy, I sure wish I was loose enough to be so foolish.

[miraja2]

I agree with others that ALL is not a smart play in the Derby. There are always at least a couple horses that you can definitely toss because they have demonstrated that they have absolutely no desire to go 9 furlongs, let alone 10. Start by identifying and getting rid of those horses.
Each year's Derby is unique so make sure you are basing your betting strategy around your handicapping analysis, and not the other way around. Good luck.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

Say I have $400 that I'm willing to lose on the Derby.

I have four horses that I've selected as the most likely winners (call them #1-#4) and four others that I think have the best chance to hit the board behind those winners (call them #5-#8). Do you think betting the race as follows makes sense:

$1 Exactas:
1/All; All/1
2/All; All/2
3/All; All/3
4/All; All/4

$1 Trifectas:
1/2-8/2-8
2/1,3-8/1,3-8
3/1,2,4-8/1,2,4-8
4/1-3,5-8/1-3,5-8

You would be leaving yourself with a very big chance of hitting the exacta and not even covering your bet. As of now I am looking at doing something along the lines of a 4X10 exacta and a 4X4X10 trifecta. Ultimately I will probably decide to go 2X4X10 in the tri to increase my chances that by at least hitting the exacta I'll cover my bets.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

$1 Exactas:
1/All; All/1
2/All; All/2
3/All; All/3
4/All; All/4

IMO, the "all" button is just giving up. I'd rather play $38 Win 1,2,3,4. or $2 Ex 1234/12345678, and $1 5678/1234 depending on will pays for $72 and $20 Win bets.

[SOREHOOF]

5 horse exacta box for whatever you can afford. Then play small tris and supers for the big payoff. If you can't hit the Ex with 5 horses you're not going to win anyway so don't waste your $$.

[SOREHOOF]

The all button is for rich people and idiots.

[ateamstupid]

I agree with the masses that the exactas seem pretty wasteful. The trifecta tickets look like better bets, especially if you've got a few price horses.

The exactas kinda remind me of when Nick Lachey went to the Kentucky Derby and boxed all 20 horses in an exacta, apparently not realizing that the exacta had to pay $760 just for him to break even. Ended up being Smarty and Lion Heart, exacta paid $65. I was rollin'.

[SOREHOOF]

There's nothing wasteful about a 20$ investment for a 2 or 3 hundred $ return.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with the masses that the exactas seem pretty wasteful. The trifecta tickets look like better bets, especially if you've got a few price horses.

The exactas kinda remind me of when Nick Lachey went to the Kentucky Derby and boxed all 20 horses in an exacta, apparently not realizing that the exacta had to pay $760 just for him to break even. Ended up being Smarty and Lion Heart, exacta paid $65. I was rollin'.

lol, nothing like Nick Lachey to hold up as our gold standard.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with the masses that the exactas seem pretty wasteful. The trifecta tickets look like better bets, especially if you've got a few price horses.

The exactas kinda remind me of when Nick Lachey went to the Kentucky Derby and boxed all 20 horses in an exacta, apparently not realizing that the exacta had to pay $760 just for him to break even. Ended up being Smarty and Lion Heart, exacta paid $65. I was rollin'.

I was at the Borgata for the '04 Derby and some guy showed me the same ticket, and I had a laugh with him after- he said "don't worry, I'll do the same thing next year".

He got the last laugh on that one.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

5 horse exacta box for whatever you can afford. Then play small tris and supers for the big payoff. If you can't hit the Ex with 5 horses you're not going to win anyway so don't waste your $$.

Rule #1 of betting exotics: Boxing more than 2 horses is a waste of money.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

How about you give me the $400 - I'll kick you in the balls and you can just enjoy your saturday off?

people usually pay me for this but ok, sure.

-jonathan knoxville