Final weekend handicapping angles

[lemoncrush]

With santa anita and gulfstream closing this weekend, does anyone know of any trends or angles to play regarding trainers?

There always seems to be a lot of suspicious class drops, with barns either trying to pick up a few extra paychecks and/or sneaking some horses through a race unclaimed at a lot lower level than normal. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With santa anita and gulfstream closing this weekend, does anyone know of any trends or angles to play regarding trainers?

There always seems to be a lot of suspicious class drops, with barns either trying to pick up a few extra paychecks and/or sneaking some horses through a race unclaimed at a lot lower level than normal. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

More so trying to get rid of sore stock after running them into the ground all meet, so they don't have to pay a shipping charge

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Scav

More so trying to get rid of sore stock after running them into the ground all meet, so they don't have to pay a shipping charge

Bulls-Heat.
Grudge match/Bragging rights.
Double/Nothing.

I expect Heat in 6.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Scav

More so trying to get rid of sore stock after running them into the ground all meet, so they don't have to pay a shipping charge

Absolutley, I know that happens too.
Another thought, in Tomorrow's 2nd race at Santa Anita, Headley has a maiden running in a MSW going 5-1/2 furlongs named Ace High Hand.
Just worked 3F in 33 flat (typical sizzler for Headley).
With his disdain for the cushion track, you know he wants this horse to break his maiden tomorrow at SA, otherwise he might be a maiden a long time.

[SentToStud]

Lemon,

I'm a fan all year and I dabble a bit at Tampa, but I only play one track hard and that's Calder.

If you're looking for help this weekend, I can't help but I can tell you how think Gulf (as well as Tampa) trainers affect my Calder play. If there's something useful you can take away or adapt for your own use, then good.

As Gulf winds down, the meet deteriorates. Same is true for Tampa, but not as steep a decline. I would significantly downgrade any non-claiming race at Gulf run after March 20th when these horses run back elsewhere.

The Calder races will be filled virtually totally by Tampa and Gulf runners plus Calder layoff returns. In the first month or 6 weeks at Calder, especially in the non-claiming races, I think it's important to have a firm sense of the quality of race(s) a horse is coming out of at GP or TBD. So, through the TBD and Gulf meets I "grade" each race.

I started looking at this 3 years ago in terms of methodology for grading, looked at it several ways and eventually landed on the easiest of premises that fortunately provided the most accurate measure. The premise is that the strength of the race is determined by the strength and ability of the trainers who entered to run.

For 2007 Gulf and Tampa, I assigned a trainer factor equal to that trainer's 2006 Total Earnings divided by 2006 Total starts = Earnings Per Starter. Every entrant in a race carries its trainer's EPS. To grade a race, I use the median of that race's EPS values.

It's only one tool and I certainly don't live and die with it but I do rely on it to gauge how tough/soft a race was going into it, especially with maidens, Allowance horses and turfers.

I find it really useful when Gulf/Tampa horses run back at Calder.

That's likely more than you were looking for but maybe it gives you an idea or two you can use in your trainer angles pursuit.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ask pg he will give you the knowalge..load up...lmfao