Early HOY predictions

I like Bernardini, but think Rathor has a shot. I am rooting for Barbaro though.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, JCGC (if he goes), BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

I think Rathor could beat him and am fairly certain Bernardini will be the horse to beat in the BC Classic.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

Yep - I agree 100%

Bellamy Road or Lava Man.

[miraja2]

So hard to tell right now.....but if I had to bet I'd go with Flower Alley. Too bad they don't do future wagers for HOY.
Barbaro? No way.

[Gander]

The ball is in Lava Man's court. If he wins 2-3 more races at the Grade 1 level this year and runs 1st or 2nd in the BC Classic he wins, unless Flower Alley wins the 3 grade 1's he is aiming towards- Whitney, Jockey Club and BC Classic. If Flower Alley is the horse to defeat Lava Man in the BC Classic and Lava Man runs 2nd, Lava Man still wins HOY.

I dont give any 3 year old any shot at HOY except for Showing Up. Not crazy about Bernardini winning anymore than 1 grade 1 and that wont be enough.

Now if Showing Up were to stay on grass and win 3 grade 1's including a BC race, he would be HOY.

Originally Posted by miraja2

So hard to tell right now.....but if I had to bet I'd go with Flower Alley. Too bad they don't do future wagers for HOY.
Barbaro? No way.

You can bet futures on the BC Classic in vegas.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Bellamy Road or Lava Man.

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

I'd say 50/50 is an overstatement. With only 2 works the EARLIEST he could return is late July, with mid-August being more likely. No horse SHOULD win the HOY with only 3 races, so I would think he's got no shot...

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

He will definitely 100% be back.

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

[Thunder Gulch]

Flower Alley if he stays healthy.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

I think Bernardini is going to the Jim Dandy. SM will fight it out with Brother Derek in the Haskell.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I think Bernardini is going to the Jim Dandy. SM will fight it out with Brother Derek in the Haskell.

Well, I think Darley's original plans had Discreet Cat going Dwyer then Haskell and Bernardini going Jim Dandy then Travers, obviously keeping them apart as long as possible...but, now that Discreet Cat has defected for the Dwyer and the Haskell looks much in doubt at this poin t for that colt, I seriously think that it would be hard for Darley to turn down the invite for the $1 million Grade I at the Shore over a Gr. II at the Spa....money is not of object with those people - obviously - but still, now that Discreet Cat is out they may take a second look at the Haskell for Bernardini....I would....BTW, Sweetnorthernsaint is Haskell bound too...

[Slewbopper]

Being a grandson of Slew, I love the Lava Man. It is true that he really hasn't beaten anyone, but who else has? Certainly not Flower Alley. Something went wrong with him in that insane Pac classic last summer. I don't think I agree with keeping him on the left coast to run in the HGC and Pac C, both races at 1 1/4 on the dirt. I would love to see him in the Arlington Million and then the Woodward before the Classic. LM, if he stays healthy will be around for a while. It is easy to root for a guy like him.

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.

I see Bernardini as the possible upsetter of these two. His Preakness was super impressive and Albertrani did the right thing skipping the Belmont, an obsolete race that is really only of great importance to a horse going for the TC. It has taken its toll in the last few years. Smarty never ran again. Birdstone ran once, and Alex never ran again. Empire Maker ran once, and Funny has won one meaningful race in the last three years.

[Gander]

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.


My sentiments exactly!

[Buffymommy]

This is a really tough thing to ask or predict right now in the middle of the year. Right now I would say Barbaro is HOY. THAT IS AS OF RIGHT NOW 6/27/06. Undefeated and much publicity, no doubt in my mind that he would get it.

Bernardini maybe IF he wins a few more against his elders this year because his Preakness was a very nice race. Flower Alley is one I would like to see more of before I cast him as HOY. As of right now I would put Lava Man above him ONLY IN THAT Lava Man has done more this year.

That is just my opinion though.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

I don't think Bernardini will run in the Haskell, but your point is well taken, Cunningham. To be honest, I'm getting very frustrated because it seems as if Barbaro has the 3 year old Eclipse wrapped up before even half the season is over. Writers like Steve Haskin (who loves Bernardini) are saying that Bernardini will have to win the Travers (agreed), a big fall race (Jockey Club?) AND the Classic in order to win the Eclipse. IMO, that's unfair and I don't get it. If Bernardini wins the Travers and a race against older horses and say, runs well in the Classic, how has his year not been better than Barbaro? Right now, Barbaro has won the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and KY Derby. Bernardini has won the Preakness and Withers. The Withers/Holy Bull cancel each other out, so Bernardini is one grade 1 behind Barbaro. The Travers is more prestigious by far than the Florida Derby, and races against older horses speak for themselves. I agree that Barbaro has the edge now (Bernardini still has to do it on the track, no matter how confident I am in his ability), but I think it would be a travesty for Bernardini (for example -but same applies to, say, Jazil) to lose the Eclipse because of sentiment. The voters are human, though, and they love Barbaro.

[2Hot4TV]

Gander, I recall someone saying he didn't care who was in the race that a Grade 1 is a Grade 1........................ So I guess that a Grade 1 really isn't the same if it's in California and the purse money doesn't mean squat. Well if they are really that good they can come and get the easy Lava Man as they prep for the BCC. Right now it's LAVA MAN. Flower Alley needs to come out running and winning, again and again and again to win HOY. If all goes well he will have some Lava Man along the way. May the best horse win.