the saratoga handicapper 2006

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i see this on drf press...mike do you own a copy of this rag...or is it all upstairs in the ol mellon..lmfao

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i see this on drf press...mike do you own a copy of this rag...or is it all upstairs in the ol mellon..lmfao

No, its fine for cluelesss people but I think its a joke.
One of the biggest disasters people make is trying to use the previous years results at a meet. Its hysterical. I mean its ludicrous to think that because a trainer had a bad meet the year before or three years ago that he is going to definitely have one again. Trainers are dependent on their stock and stock varies from year to year. Obviously guys like Pletcher who maintain a strong string year in and year out are going to win races but do you need a book to tell you that?
Also the trainer jockey combos are a joke. Jocks switch agents a lot these days and its usually the agents that trainers work with when they want to put one over at a nice price, it just happens to be their jock that they ride.
All these books do is state the obvious. For example I bet they profile Chantal Sutherland as a "dangerous" spa grass jock because she won a few at long odds last year. Lets face it, she caught a few live mounts and won a few. That does not change the fact that she is a mediocre jockey at best and not someone you will look to bet just because she is on a horse.
Save the money for something else. You can always ask Steve, Joel, Blackthroat, or I about something on this site for free anyway so why the hell would you lay out the cash on some book thats going to state the VERY obvious and often state it in a horrible context?

Right you are.

I remember when Tom Voss had a good Saratoga meeting a few years back ... and everyone went gaga over his horses the next year ...

... and lost their shirts.

Saratoga is especially hard to replicate from year-to-year ... because it's a national meeting ... attracting horses from all over the country ... not just the usual local suspects.

Hard to handicap ... and even harder to dominate.

[Kasept]

I disagree. I think Mazur does a great job with his products.

There's tons of invaluable info annually in his stats and analysis which yield wiseguy plays several times a meet. I got Gyarmati the last Wednesday thanks to it 3-4 years ago (Goodtime Charlie? 33-1?).. MADE the entire meet a profitable one with just the single play. Well over $2K after being down $400-500 on Day 31.. Also changed my karma as I proceeded to clobber three big ones the next day.. Ended the meet up about $3,800-4,000.

Certainly worth the $25 Jim Mazur charges for the book.

[blackthroatedwind]

I could argue both sides of this issue, I think, very well.

I don't disagree that using the past can be a very slippery slope in a lot of cases and if you are familiar with a circuit, and the participants, I don't necessarily think the Mazur books are for you. I am certainly NOT a handicapper that relies on trainer patterns, as I think they lead you in the wrong direction more often than not, and prefer " simple " handicapping.

On the other hand, when I first went to Florida in the mid 90s to play, and was totally unfamiliar with the trainers, I used Jim's books quite a bit and feel they were a great help. They can teach the uninformed a solid outline, at least, on certain trainers as to who often comes out firing and who may well use one start....etc.

However, those are problematic concepts for Saratoga, where pretty much everyone would at least like to come out firing.

[SentToStud]

I use Mazur's stuff for Calder. I am to some extent a trainer pattern type of handicapper which I think is useful for a track with a very long season (Calder, Philly, etc). I don't think it's as good as it could be but it is somewhat helpful and $25 is not a ton of money. I find it more useful to spot bad chalk vs locating a long winner, but that's just as valuable. For the top short meets like keeneland, Saratoga, etc... I'm not sure I'd find it as useful. It's just another arrow in the quiver.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by oracle80

No, its fine for cluelesss people but I think its a joke.
One of the biggest disasters people make is trying to use the previous years results at a meet. Its hysterical. I mean its ludicrous to think that because a trainer had a bad meet the year before or three years ago that he is going to definitely have one again. Trainers are dependent on their stock and stock varies from year to year. Obviously guys like Pletcher who maintain a strong string year in and year out are going to win races but do you need a book to tell you that?
Also the trainer jockey combos are a joke. Jocks switch agents a lot these days and its usually the agents that trainers work with when they want to put one over at a nice price, it just happens to be their jock that they ride.
All these books do is state the obvious. For example I bet they profile Chantal Sutherland as a "dangerous" spa grass jock because she won a few at long odds last year. Lets face it, she caught a few live mounts and won a few. That does not change the fact that she is a mediocre jockey at best and not someone you will look to bet just because she is on a horse.
Save the money for something else. You can always ask Steve, Joel, Blackthroat, or I about something on this site for free anyway so why the hell would you lay out the cash on some book thats going to state the VERY obvious and often state it in a horrible context?

...gee mike your putting yourself on the same level as some that get payed to cap.....if steve says its worth checking out i would tend to take a look..im sure there are angles you may not know or have forgotten its always a good thing to refresh the memory and some things are cyclical..

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

...gee mike your putting yourself on the same level as some that get payed to cap.....if steve says its worth checking out i would tend to take a look..im sure there are angles you may not know or have forgotten its always a good thing to refresh the memory and some things are cyclical..

I can assure you there will be no new or forgotten angles in there, at least by me.
Hey what happened was that you asked me the question, so my response was to you Hooves. Someone less into the game might find it useful, but based on what I know of your level I thought you wouldn't need it.

[Five Star Derek]

Mazurs stuff can be helpful if your using it to play a curcuit you don't play on a regular basis. Sure it's filled with a lot of junk but there are some nuggets in there that will pay for the $25 price easily.