5/5 Churchill Downs picks

[AeWingnut]

I'm sure these picks won't carry any weight (nor should they) This post is for reference later on. I wanna puke

on this day May 5th, 17 yrs ago, the #7 horse trained by Carl Nafzger won The Kentucky Derby. Will history repeat?

I believe it is going to be an off track. The turf should be soft at best.

Race 1 (looks chalky to me - no bet maybe #6 Primetime Princess 4/1 can wire?)

#2 Ginger Punch 1st
#1 Hayden Valley 3rd
#5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd

Race 2 2 yr olds = Dale Romans?

#6 Beautiful You 4th
#5 Woodway 3rd
#4 Little Nick 1st

Race 3 Maidens $$

#4 Sarah Supreme 3rd
#1 Marina Ballerina 2nd
#8 Cute Cakes 4th

Race 4 I was warned this longshot is a sucker bet. I'm a sucker for 30-1

#9 Sentry
#1 All Luck
#8 Next Adventure 3rd
#12 Cya Later Bert 2nd

Race 5 No Wandering Boy or Half Ours? got slop? ignoring Junior College advice (so bet him with both fists)

#4 Ah Day 2nd
#3 Will He Shine 3rd
#8 Moon's Halo
#7 Saint Anddan 1st

Race 6 "Lady of Venice is always supposed to win"

#2 Rich Fantasy 3rd
#7 Take The Ribbon 1st
#4 Price Tagg

Race 7 Sumwonlovesyou G3 in numerical order

#1 Upcoming Story 3rd
#3 Silverinyourpocket 1st
#5 Appealing Zophie
#8 Tensas Yucatan

Race 8 if you like Hard Spun you have to like Wildcat Bettie B

#3 Carriage Trail 3rd
#4 Leah's Secret
#9 Sweet Fervor
#1 Pussycat Doll 2nd

Race 9 playing 4 horses

#4 Danzon 3rd
#5 Better Talk Now 4th
#6 Einstein
#7 Sky Conqueror 1st

Race 10 Kentucky Derby All/All/All <--teasing

#7 Street Sense 1st
#12 Nobiz Like Shobiz
#6 Cowtown Cat
#3 Zanjero

[saucon17]

Absolutely love Ah Day in the CD Handicap and will love him twice as much if it track comes up very messy.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by saucon17

Absolutely love Ah Day in the CD Handicap and will love him twice as much if it track comes up very messy.

This race really seems to set up for Ah Day.

[golfer]

Today is the day we've all been waiting for . Obviously handicapping for wet track, also can't ignore potential rail/non-rail bias...will adjust if it changes,

Race 1: #2 Ginger Punch, this horse towers over this field, has a great wet fig, ML stinks, but should not lose...#5 Leo's Pegasus is next fastest, has good CD wet fig 2 back...#6 Primetime Princess, circle back pattern, last was a good wet race at OP..#4 Presidential Date, only wet race stunk, but that was her 3rd career start, may hit board at a price.

Race 2: 2 year old maidens, nothing but breeding to go on (not my specialty), will tread very lightly.. #5 Woodway, Pletcher 1ster?

Race 3: #8 Cute Cakes, debut was sneaky fast on poly, may handle wet track...#9 Royal Diva, ran OK debut closing at OP, can improve...#1 Marina Ballerina and #2 Inside Passage, both coming off solid turf races, not wet dirt? #4 Sarah Supreme, ML favorite and giving weight, solid but not a stand out.

Race 4: #8 Next Adventure, solid forward moving line, nice wet race at FG...#2 Consecration, highweight for Shug, coming off big top on poly 2 weeks ago, may react...#5 Northern Duke, Pletcher, 1st 2 at three were solid, may continue improvement..
#7 Great Discovery, has both a good and horrible wet figure, which way today?..#6 Lumberjack Cat, #11 Mallabar and #12 Cya Later Bert, can all be used at a price.

Race 5: The Stakes races begin (also the pick 6).. different race with Half Ours and Wanderin Boy running yesterday...#4 Ah Day, loved him a month ago at Aqu, broke poorly and didn't do much running, at least that shouldn't have taken much out of him, also loves the wet track, sticking with him...#5 Cougar Cat has a big slop figure last year at Louisiana Downs, 2nd off the layoff today, big ML odds...#7 Saint Anddan is solid... look for both #6 Istan and #9 Junior College to react to big recent efforts.

Race 6: 1st Turf race of the day (handicapping for soft), very evenly matched race, #4 Price Tag, Frankel, making 3rd US start (2nd off the layoff), ran well on wet turf in Europe...#5 Quite a Bride, also 2nd off the layoff, figures fit here... #1 Lady of Venice, Biancone, comes back quickly, but wouldn't surprise..#6 Magnificent Song, Pletcher off 6 month layoff???

Race 7: wide open race, #3 Silverinyourpocket, ran 2 good ones at GP, then 2 not as good on poly, should improve back on dirt...#7 Total is classic "O-2-X", has 2 months since the X, can improve...#10 Tessa Blue, and #11 Suaveness both dangerous longshots...#4 Appealing Zophie, obviously dangerous, although last was big bounce, who knows here?

Race 8: another tough one, could go in many directions.. what to do with #1 Pussycat Doll, extremely spacey line, 2nd off the layoff (last year ran poorly 1st out, then well at CD, this year ran great 1st out, now 3 months later??). #8 Wildcat Bettie B, 2nd off the layoff, shows 2 solid wet track races..#4 Leah's Secret and #7 Hysterical Lady, both fast enough to win...#9 Sweet Fervor is coming off huge top, dangerous if she doesn't react..same for #2 Shaggy Mane, although I won't be betting this one.

Race 9: back to the turf, and possibly the BEST BET of the Day: #6 Einstein, last 2 have been HUGE, repeat runs away with this...#1 Brilliant, shows a big fig 3 back on soft turf, dangerous at a price...#4 Danzon, ran a good one 2 weeks ago for Biancone, should like it soft... favorites #2 Icy Atlantic, solid but unspectacular and #5 Better Talk Now, 1st start off the layoff at age 8, does like soft turf, and usually runs well fresh (but not putting him in top spot).#7 Sky Conqueror, has big soft turf fig last year at Woodbine, 2nd off the layoff today.

Race 10: KENTUCKY DERBY!! #12 NoBizLikeShoBiz, has been incredibly consistent (5 out of 6 lifetime races have been TG 2.5's)..has to either break thru or regress today. The Wood may have been better than it appeared! Hunch play.. #7 Street Sense is the logical choice, best if NoBiz doesn't run.. using #'s 3 Zanjero, #8 Hard Spun, #16 Circular Quay, #18 Any Given Saturday underneath... Don't like Cowtown Cat, Sam P or Dominican.. not so sure about Liquidity?

Race 11: yes, there is a race 11 (and 12)..whichever half of the Romans entry (#1 and #1A) runs should win, even better if both go! #7 Portobello Road may improve...

Race 12: hopefully we'll still be around for this, tough one to close the day...#8 Superb Ravi's last 2 stand out in here, unfortunately they were on the dirt, turf is a big ? the rest are extemely evenly matched, look for a price. Neither favorite, Praia di pipa or Beautiful Danielle stands out on figs, #1 Miss Laken, ran a big one on soft turf last year at AP, #3 Legislady ran 2 good ones on FG turf before his last 2 not as good on poly..#5 Louve Des Reves, Biancone's European layoff horse is dangerous.

As always, Great Luck to ALL!!