Another easy work for Curlin

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He breezed a half mile in 51....by the sounds of the reports, yet another very easy work where he was restrained throughout.

I was kind of hoping he'd finally be allowed to do something for a change...certainly something quick would get him back on his toes...and I believe, it would be to his benefit going into the Preakness.

I'm certainly not going to be holding my breath that he will be taken away from the pony in the pre-race, and having Robby give him a brisk warm-up and getting him on his toes.

When Asmussen got this horse a few months ago---he was getting a horse with a milers pedigree off a very fleet wire-to-wire win sprinting---through some ultra conservative handling...it appears as though he's doing a fine job of turning the horse into a stretch running router.

He seems more intent on trying to not ruin the horse--instead of doing what I believe will give him his best chance of a victory in a Classic race. I can understand it--but, from a betting standpoint, I wish he'd have done something more geared to sharpening speed than stamina and conditioning. I believe he has more than enough of the latter...he needs a return to his preferred stalking tactics in the Preakness, and the pace figures to be MUCH faster than it was in the slow-paced Arkansas Derby.

Hopefully he can real comfortably stalk a live Preakness pace...and has built enough seperation between himself and Street Sense....as Curlin is a very well made grinding kind of horse...who simply doesn't have the big turn-of-foot of Street Sense...if Street Sense doesn't have Curlin beat by the 1/8 pole...he's very likely not getting by.

[cmorioles]

A lot of people seem to like this horse Saturday. I honestly give him very little chance at all.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

A lot of people seem to like this horse Saturday. I honestly give him very little chance at all.

CJ..

Would love to have you expand on this a bit.. I imagine your thinking this way stems from a pace scenario/fig standpoint... ??

[zippyneedsawin]

I give Curlin a very good chance to win the Preakness, but it's hard to say since the field is not yet set.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ..

Would love to have you expand on this a bit.. I imagine your thinking this way stems from a pace scenario/fig standpoint... ??

I don't think he has ever shown enough to beat either Hard Spun or Street Sense. I am not real big on betting horses that need to improve to win without getting a paid for making that leap. I just don't think he is good enough, and 4 to 1 isn't near enough in my opinion.

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

[cmorioles]

If Steet Sense had Curlin's trip in the Derby, he still wins.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

I see math wasn't one of your stronger subjects.

Nothing like a horseplayer with an initially bad opinion allowing it to spiral into a plethora of even worse opinions. Seriously, you will find yourself with more time, and more money, if you would just admit you were wrong about Street Sense and try to focus on actually making money at the racetrack.

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong ( while also pretending he objectively analyzes races ).

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

Interesting thread...personally, I would hate to see any horse work fast between the Derby and the Preakness...and Curlin, with his lack of seasoning and the fact this will be his 5th race since 2/3/07, certainly wouldn't benefit from same imo. Curlin seems to do 6f in about 1:13 in his routes, I don't see him close to a swift pace. With SS's gears, he can afford to give Curlin first run I think. To me, only Hard Spun has the potential to stop SS and that depends on whether he can maintain his form off a two week rest.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Is SS gonna get the Moses trip again?

He just needs to settle just behind the pacesetters and get a clear run.

Shouldn't be too hard to do.

[cmorioles]

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

[herkhorse]

[quote=the_fat_man]It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Just how did HS have things his own way? He set honest fractions, and held on for a game 2nd, while all the other horses that tried to go with him backed up the track.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

A lot of people seem to like this horse Saturday. I honestly give him very little chance at all.

Price will dictate who my win bet will be on--it's either going to be on him or Hard Spun.

But yeah, I'd have been much more tempted had Curlin been finally allowed to do something in one of his works.

I don't mean something crazy-fast like Hard Spun did in his final work leading into the Derby (running a 10 and change 1st furlong, burying a Grade 1 winning sprinter, and getting 5 furlongs in 57 and change.) but I just wish he'd have done something to get him on his toes a little bit....it's about time I'd say.

[tycharles01]

Off Subject but how long was the race the Xchanger ran at Pimlico a few weeks ago?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Off Subject but how long was the race the Xchanger ran at Pimlico a few weeks ago?

9f

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

9f

A shockingly similar distance to how far he will finish behind the winner Saturday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Isn't a "maintenance work" sufficient between the Derby and the Preakness?

From a betting standpoint, I'd have liked Curlin's chances a little more on Saturday had it been a little more than just a maintenace work.