5/19: Pimlico (4th-12th)

[Kasept]

Struggled through the Black-Eyed Susan Day card Friday, with very little in the way of good opinion. Superfecta call in the feature helped make a dent in the beating on the day, but singling of Your Flame in Me and missing winner Time's Mistress was the difference in a P4 ($750+) that would have made the afternoon profitable.. Preakness Day card solid as always, and weather looks like it will cooperate after all..

PIMLICO RACE COURSE -- 4th-12th

Pre-Scratches/Changes.. Supers in all..

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P4, DD)

1. #10 Ten Across 8-1 8th
2. #7 Suave Jazz 8-5 WON
A. #9 Appealing Speed 12-1 7th
B. #4 Our Peak 20-1 6th


5th: Baltimore City, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

1. #2 Salute the Count 7-2 5th
2. #1e Leatherbury entry 10-1 3rd/4th
3. #8 Tacirring 6-1 6th

LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADDS: #7 Max West 12-1 7th; #4 Heros Reward 12-1 WON


6th: 32nd Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

1. #4 Finallymadeit 5-1 6th
2. #3 Heart Thobbin' 12-1 4th
A. #6 Hobbitontherocks 8-1 3rd
B. #5 Street Magician 8-5


7th: 56th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P6, P3, DD)

1. #3 Aunt Henny 4-1 5th
2. #5 Precious Kitten 8-5
A. #6 Trick's Pic 12-1 3rd
B. #4 Grigorieva 7-2 4th

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 High Moment 15-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 7-10
5: 1-2-7-8
6: 3-4-5-6
7: 3-5

2x4x4x2 = $64


8th: 21st MD BC Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

1. #2 Diabolical 3-2 WON
2. #7 Talent Search 3-1 2nd
A. #1 Semaphore Man 6-1 3rd
B. #6 Fleet Valid 4-1 ("Come on Pork Chop!) 6th


9th: 15th Barbaro, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, DD)

1. #6 Chelokee 1-1 WON
2. #1 SCR
A. #7 Zephyr Cat 10-1 3rd
B. #4 SCR


10th: 106th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

1. #9 Einstein 3-1 DNF
2. #3 Cosmonaut 9-2 2nd
A. #4 Dreadnaught 10-1 5th
B. #12 Remarkable News 7-2 WON

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #7 Stay Close 20-1 8th


11th: 21st W.D. Schaefer H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

1. #7 Hesanoldsalt 1-1 2nd
2. #1 Ryan's for Real 10-1 3rd
A. #3 Take the Bluff 10-1 4th
B. #9 Flashy Bull 7-2 WON


12th: 132nd Preakness Stakes (Gr. I), $1,000,000, 3yo, 9.75f (DD)

1. Mint Slewlep (Garcia/Bailes) 30-1: Connections that brought you Scrappy T try Crown Leg #2 with hard tryer that must have looked nice at OBS '06 to bring $200k; First foal from unraced dam by Juvy winning Gilded Time was somewhat distant 4th/5th in pair of earlier graded tries; A cut beneath currently, but on the improve and not impossible at bottom of superfecta..

2. Xchanger (Dominguez/Shuman) 15-1: Son of good young sire Exchange Rate, a distance plus, endured 5 race loss streak between juvy Sapling (MTH-Gr. III) score and Tesio wire job this oval; Set honest pace in that prep, wisely passed Derby, and could be set for top effort out of red hot Shuman barn (47% W's at meet, 32% W's overall last 90 days); Seems a fit with Ramon, who's good at doling out speed, and was 2nd this event '05; Another exotics saver candidate..

3. Circular Quay (Velasquez/Pletcher) 8-1: Son of show horse this race in '95 ran courageously at Louisville while wide and with trouble when 6th (<10L); Must have exited Downs fray sharp off 8 week break to change mind of trainer who rarely attends these proceedings with his rose runners (Impeachment '00 lone starter); Johnny V. jumped off barnmate 'Roxy' like rat of sinking ship, and while certain to get pace for his closing kick, doesn't really have right style for this strip; Forgive Derby melee and Risen Star marred trip, and he's never been out of an exacta; Merits enough for top tabs and likliest winner from outside Derby trifecta attendees..

4. Curlin (Albarado/Asmussen) 7-2: Received predictably poor ride from regular pilot at Churchill dooming any chance this real racehorse had a fortnight ago; Still quieted critics with late-running Derby third once clear, and a candidate for the susies if rigors of intense campaign don't visit this day; Has tractable qualities that should suit race shape well if dimwit in the irons, (2nd here in '03-Midway Road), can make most of talents; Will feel effects of 4 fast efforts at some point, but if still together here, impossible to keep out of top four slots..

5. King of the Roxy (Gomez/Pletcher) 12-1: Purchased for similar pocket change as Teufelsberg, but owns pair of Gr. II wins and Gr. I placement via savvy handling; Like Xchanger, eschewed Derby run for date at this oval known to be kind to speed; Plucky colt adds Gomez, though Migliore got most out of him to date when milking OH-bred to near SA Derby stunner when last seen; Own sprint fig from clutch Hutch (Gr. II) that will play well here if distance limitations don't impede; Will offer value, and though we'll pass, can't fault those taking a positive view..

6. Flying First Class (Guidry/Lukas) 20-1: Derby Trial hero from 5X winner of this classic likely the biggest enigma here; Is certain pacesetter capable of stretching out to classic distance after pair of questionable attempts at Ozarks? Has services of money jock Guidry who is considerable upgrade on Arkanasas Derby pilot who moved him a half mile early; May be circling back to monster fig performance that grabbed attention on Southwest undercard, and D. Wayne would love to spring the surprise; Not on our ducats, but those hoping for him to hang around long enough to boost exotic tix could get their wish..

7. Hard Spun (Pino/Jones) 5-2 Rose runner-up did everything required at CD but win, and appears to have exited KY in fine shape; Respect conditioner Jones immensely, and Team Porter 'comes home' to site of large percentage of rider's 5k wins; With more front end company expected, will again need to employ tactics that earned Lane's End laurels in final Derby prep while leaving juice in the lemon to hold off late chargers; Sire delivered '92 edition winner Pine Bluff, and could pad legendary shed history today; Playing against on win end, but appreciate this one's credentials for repeat of performance level set two week ago..

8. Street Sense (Borel/Nafzger) 7-5 Nafzger champion wrote own chapter in Derby bible 14 days ago in tandem with kooky Cajun astride, and can continue march toward immortality with similar effort today; May need to overcome dependence on inside voyages to do so, and doesn't have the luxury of game's longest stretch here; Vulnerable on enough fronts to take a stand against if so inclined, but also remains horse to beat no matter how you break down race; Borel got feel for Old Hilltop Friday with wins and has to be sure not to leave Street Cry son with too much to do, but appears supremely confident going in and retains our endorsement..

9. C P West (Prado/Zito) 20-1: Familiar team of Zito-LaPenta appear late on the Crown Trail with precocious Came Home colt that has yet to show best this annum; Withers runner-up, (to noticably abent Chuck Simon purchase Divine Park), needs fig boost to impact, but that was true of Nick's '06 Preakness show pony Hemingway's Key (29-1) as well; Sole two turn run came in BC Juvy 6th, but son of Dynaformer mare designed for route of ground; Retains Prado, who despite launching career in Baltimore, has yet to hit board this event; Figures a use on deepest exotics and by Zito fans..

SELECTIONS:

Hard pressed to take creative approach in these mutuels; Believing the Derby trifecta will all regress a hard pill to swallow, though those only in it to cash well have little option; Taking stand against three favorites, AND Circular Quay, logical in many quarters, but you still need another price to get into the black type, and that seems a reach.. May be one to play only as part of the multis..

1. #8 Street Sense 2nd
2. #3 Circular Quay
A. #7 Hard Spun 3rd
B. #4 Curlin WON


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 6-7
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8

2x3x2x4 = $48


<$100 .50 P6 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 2-7
9: 1-SCR-6
10: 3-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 3-4-7-8

2x2x1x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good Luck!
Steve

[golfer]

Steve, quick question about Talent Search in Pimlico's 8th. Do you think the last 2 huge efforts may take their toll today. Because if they don't, he is the fastest in the race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, quick question about Talent Search in Pimlico's 8th. Do you think the last 2 huge efforts may take their toll today. Because if they don't, he is the fastest in the race.

a VERY intersting horse right there. Shuman magic or just getting good? He improved 14 points from debut and has one of those maryland numbers that you tend to look at like 'holy crap'. I think Drugs was talking about it how Maryland puts up some inflated numbers (across the board) sometimes.

If Rolling Sea can win a graded stakes out there, anyone can win

[Scav]

I am surprised Byk left Can't Beat it off his analysis, I thought for sure he would be all over this horse.

I like Can't Beat It a bit, depending on the price. Espcially if the other Wolfson horse Mending Fences is softening them up early.

If Castro takes Can't Beat it, he is half the price. I think Cosmonaut sits right off Mending Fences, but if Cosmo can't get it done, then Beat it or Outperformance will be cruising.

[XIIPointStables]

10:30 FIRST POST...any idea when we'll get the scratches?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am surprised Byk left Can't Beat it off his analysis, I thought for sure he would be all over this horse.

I like Can't Beat It a bit, depending on the price. Espcially if the other Wolfson horse Mending Fences is softening them up early.

If Castro takes Can't Beat it, he is half the price. I think Cosmonaut sits right off Mending Fences, but if Cosmo can't get it done, then Beat it or Outperformance will be cruising.

It's a very good and deep race.. Can't Beat It's best asset here is a ground-saving trip, and Marty's stats 2nd off the break.. He can be used underneath, but he's slower than many others that will also be a square number, and he isn't facing the likes of Croton Road and Fancy Silver today.. Has also been drowned all three times he faced elders.. I could be very wrong, but I think he's up against it today.

Thanks for the selections, Steve.

I'm on the way to Churchill and it looks like it's going to be a picture perfect day.


Street Sense is my Preakness selection.


Good luck everyone!!

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am surprised Byk left Can't Beat it off his analysis, I thought for sure he would be all over this horse.

can't speak for steve, but i've seen this horse run in every one of his races. without looking at the pp's i am sure he has gotten beat pretty soundly each time he face 3y.o. and older conditions. I like this horse alot too and had him for a few nice scores, but he has to show me he can hang with older horses before he gets my support again.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by robfla

can't speak for steve, but i've seen this horse run in every one of his races. without looking at the pp's i am sure he has gotten beat pretty soundly each time he face 3y.o. and older conditions. I like this horse alot too and had him for a few nice scores, but he has to show me he can hang with older horses before he gets my support again.

Correct. He's 0-3 against older. His big fig win in October in the Calder Derby, he really beat nothing. In his other recent win, Axthelm 7.5F at Calder in Dec, he outfinished Fancy Silver and El Lobo (both at big numbers). Wolfson is unbelieveable when he ships but it's hard to like him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, quick question about Talent Search in Pimlico's 8th. Do you think the last 2 huge efforts may take their toll today. Because if they don't, he is the fastest in the race.

Always a bit of a concern, but he has serious speed and races are well-spaced.. PIM a faster surface generally than LRL which can account for a bit of an inflated number, but he clearly seems to be a horse on the come..

[Scav]

No simulcasting today for Scav as he is enjoying an endless sky and beverages on the patio at Arlington, we did sneak these wagers in though

05/19/07 PIM 10 $30 Pick-3 1,3,10 / 7 / 3 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $30 Pick-3 2 / 2,6 / 1,3,10 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $165 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 1,3,10 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $20 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 3 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $5 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 3 ------ Cancel

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

No simulcasting today for Scav as he is enjoying an endless sky and beverages on the patio at Arlington, we did sneak these wagers in though

05/19/07 PIM 10 $30 Pick-3 1,3,10 / 7 / 3 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $30 Pick-3 2 / 2,6 / 1,3,10 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $165 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 1,3,10 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $20 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 3 ------ Cancel
05/19/07 PIM 8 $5 Pick-3 2 / 6 / 3 ------ Cancel

STRAIGHT KICK in the balls with running 2nd and 3rd in the 10th race, because the 11 breaks down, the 12 avoids it and Cosmo doesn't.....unbelievable

[57rick]

$40 WP on King of the Roxy
$5 EX box 3-5-8-9