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#1
06-13-2007, 07:07 AM
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6/13: Belmont (Late P4)
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES 6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T (P4, DD) 1. #3 SCRATCHED SUB: #6 Good Looking Out 15-1 WON 2. #8 Riz Sauvage 3-1: Regally-bred Mott runner drops in from MSW's.. 8th A. #7 Reknown 5-1: Dynaformer 4yo on way to being professional maiden.. 3rd B. #4 Caught Stealing 9-2: Serpe going well and DepMin 3yo keeps Edgar.. 5th 7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, Super) 1. #8 FRENCH TRANSITION 5-2: Moves to Pancho and surface of best try.. WON 2. #6 Love Abroad 4-1: Consistant board-hitter threat with repeat of last.. 5th A. #7 Wally World 8-1: In Supers last 8; Better going one turn.. 2nd B. #2 Stopbluffing 6-1: Carroll gelding had no answer 1st v. elders last out.. 3rd SUPER INCLUDE: #1 Raven H 7-2 6th $1 Daily Double 6-8 $122.25 $2 Exacta 8-7 $25.75 $2 Trifecta 8-7-2 $207.50 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-T (DD) 1. #2 LOCONIA 7-2: Motion Rahy bay never worse than 4th career; Gets set-up.. 6th 2. #1a SCRATCHED SUB: #3 Silver Timber 3-1 3rd 3. #6 Casey's Joy 5-1: KMc-West Pointer broke through with turf move last.. 5th 9th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Super) 1. #6 SCRATCHED SUB: AE #13 Dr. D. F. C. 7-2: Merits big shot drawing in.. 3rd (moved up on DQ) 2. #7 Triple Bogey Blues 4-1: Length ahead of choice last time.. 6th (DQ from 3rd) A. #2 Victory Assured 5-1: Has given empty assurance 6X before.. 2nd B. #10 SCRATCHED SUB: #5 Raptime 20-1 7th <$50 P4-P3 Plays: 6: 4-6-7-8 7: 6-7-8 8: 2 (P3 add 3) 9: 2-7-13 (P3 add 3-5) P4: 4x3x1x3 = $36 (or add 3 for $72 P4 play..) P3: 3x2x5 = $30 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-13-2007 at 07:06 PM. 
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#2
06-13-2007, 08:08 AM
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why is Dubliner back so soon?
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#3
06-13-2007, 09:25 AM
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Hey Steve, you ever think about putting out a Grand Slam bet? I know the payouts can range anywhere from $5 to $500. I've actually done pretty well pounding that bet.. I don't know how many times I've gotten a $20+ payout on a horse(in the last leg) that goes off at 4/5. In general, it's more of a grinder's bet I think.
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#4
06-13-2007, 11:56 AM
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I hate French Transition in today's 7th race. I think he's the biggest trap of the meet. Good luck to those that take 4:5 on him.
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#5
06-13-2007, 12:01 PM
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Several key scratches/changes today at BEL..
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
06-13-2007, 12:29 PM
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Steve
Is there anyway Gwedda #1 improves enough to get past both Rondo and Holy Canyon in the 3rd today. Seems like an odd place for Badgett Jr to get back in the game unless you look at the Woody Stevens as even worse. Seems like this race is a bear...
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#7
06-13-2007, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
What is your wagering strategy on it?
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#8
06-13-2007, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
I agree, there are many days it isn't worth playing.. i.e. when there are short fields in the legs leading up to the feature/anchor leg. When I do play, I usually go: single/single/single/(anywhere from 1 to 4 horses--usually just one or two in the last).. Obviously, the value of the bet only comes into play if you reach the final leg. As I mentioned earlier, there are many times I've gotten to that last leg where I singled a horse who went off at even money or less, and the Grand Slam payout is $15 or higher to that horse. Meaning, he went from odds-on to a 6-1 payout or higher. I usually only make $10 to $20 bets so I catch the payout 5-10 times. Of course, if I think the last leg is completely wide open, I may do the opposite and spread my way to the end.. But, if I'm spending more than $40, it's probably not worth it. For today, as an example, I'd probably play something like this: 5/4/6/2,3 =$20 x 2= $40 (exton)/(caught Stealing)/(Love Abroad)/(Loconia, Silver Timber) I'm playing against a few favorites (in early legs and the last) so the payout could be anywhere from $20-$60 per $2 bet. (assuming a favorite misses the board early in the sequence, and the favorite in the last goes down.) The most interesting thing I find when I handicap this bet is that I'll play horses I KNOW aren't going to win, but I am pretty confident they'll hit the board.(in the first three legs)
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#9
06-13-2007, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
I had a thought on how to improve the wager, and possibly make it more fun. Make it a real "Grand Slam": Leg 1: Runner must finish EXACTLY 4th Leg 2: Runner must finish EXACTLY 3rd Leg 3: Runner must finish EXACTLY 2nd Leg 4: Runner must Win
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#10
06-13-2007, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Wallstreetcorredor is coming out of a race that's produced 2 winners (and a 2nd by a nose at MTH).
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