Lawyer Ron's Time

I went back and watched the Go For Wand and The Whitney on NYRA.com and timed each race with a stop watch. I know this isnt very accurate but I was very close to the Go For Wand time and way off for the Whitney. I started the watch at the same time for each race. I got Lawyer Ron's time around 1:49 flat and Ginger Punches slightly slower (which is very close to the correct time). Thought this was interesting.

[mes5107]

I timed the Whitney 5 times and here were my results:
1:46.63
1:46.75
1:46.59
1:46.65
1:46.94

Obviously, there are several reasons for a margin of error, most of which the timing depends upon the replay being run at real speed.

Make sure you start your stopwatch when the first horse reaches the start/finish wire, not when they leave the gate.

I think that perhaps we should look at the Go For Wand featuring a regressed BSF by Ginger Punch in a winning effort as opposed to giving her an automatic 104.

[smuthg]

interesting article on this subject on DRF... a few highlights...

"On the Beyer Speed Figure scale ... Lawyer Ron's raw figure in the Whitney was an astronomical 138, and applying a variant of -10 again would give him an implausible figure of 128, a level reached only by Ghostzapper in the last decade.

Awarding Lawyer Ron a 128 would mean giving runner-up Wanderin Boy, who had never exceeded a figure of 107 except at Keeneland (where he earned figures of 110 and 113 when that track was in its pre-Polytrack inside-speed heyday), a figure of nearly 120. Diamond Stripes, with consistent figures of 104-105-106-105 in his last four starts, would get about a 117." from DRF.

[justindew]

I timed it twice using the replay on NTRA.com, and both times I started the clock less than a legth before the lead horses crossed the wire for the first time. My times:

1:47.00
1:47.00

If the replay is shown in real time, I think Lawyer Ron's time might be exactly right. Wow.

[mes5107]

My 5 clockings of the Go For Wand:
1:49.50
1:49.41
1:49.28
1:49.34
1:49.25

I believe the track was rather fast, but the Go For Wand was run rather slow. I agree that Lawyer Ron probably did not earn a 128, but a 120 is not out of the question. Perhaps we should use Diamond Stripes as a projection horse at about a 106. That would give Lawyer Ron a 115 which is 23 points off of the raw figure of 138. Applying that variant to Ginger Punch would leave her running a 91.

If we use an average of both projections for the variant (-10 and -23) we get an average variant of -17. That gives Lawyer Ron a 121 and Ginger Punch a 97.

I think the times were right.

[JJP]

Let's face it; the actual time really doesn't matter. We know the gaps involved separating the horses. Lets take a look at the top 5 finishers showing their top route dirt figs, and their last race Beyers:

Lawyer Ron 109, 108 (last race)
Wanderin Boy 113, 90 (last race). His two top dirt figs, 113 and 111, were loose on lead wire jobs at the old biased Kee. Is it likely he ran superior to those numbers? Its highly doubtful.
Diamond Stripes 106 & 104---he's been in the 104-106 range for his last 4 starts.
Fairbanks-115 & 103--the 115 was a loose on the lead runaway job. The 103, accomplished in his last, would be a far more likely number he'd run.
Dry Martini- 107 & 107--This is a horse who very often runs in the 100-103 area. The 107 was accomplished on Bute, at a track that often produces Beyers that are suspiciously high.

Likely projected figures before the race:

Dry Martini--102
Fairbanks--103
Diamond Stripes---106

These are the most likely numbers that could've occurred. In reality, the differential between Fairbanks and Dry Martini should be 2 pts, not 1. Based on this, Wanderin Boy would be 2 pts higher (1 length at 9f) than Diamond Stripes, giving him a 108. He's run a 107 and 106 on non-old Keeneland surfaces, so that is plausible. Higher than a 108 would not be likely. So for Lawyer Ron, we add on 8 pts, giving him a 116, a solid new top, but very likely considering his win margin. These are my projected figures (I use the Beyer scale):

Lawyer Ron 116
Wanderin Boy 108
Diamond Stripes 106
Fairbanks 103
Dry Martini 101

[mes5107]

Very sound reasoning in constructing your figure. The only problem is that leaves Ginger Punch with a 92 BSF. While it is possible that she scored a 6 length victory at a 92 figure, I think that it is unlikely. I believe she ran a slower than normal figure, but 12 points is quite a regression in a winning effort.
The question this poses is whether or not the timer was functioning properly in both races. Steven Crist (http://www.drf.com/news/article/87120.html) argues that the Whitney was an unlikely record time, but I think that it is more likely that the Go For Wand was an exceptionally slow race and both clockings are correct.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by JJP

Let's face it; the actual time really doesn't matter. We know the gaps involved separating the horses. Lets take a look at the top 5 finishers showing their top route dirt figs, and their last race Beyers:

Lawyer Ron 109, 108 (last race)
Wanderin Boy 113, 90 (last race). His two top dirt figs, 113 and 111, were loose on lead wire jobs at the old biased Kee. Is it likely he ran superior to those numbers? Its highly doubtful.
Diamond Stripes 106 & 104---he's been in the 104-106 range for his last 4 starts.
Fairbanks-115 & 103--the 115 was a loose on the lead runaway job. The 103, accomplished in his last, would be a far more likely number he'd run.
Dry Martini- 107 & 107--This is a horse who very often runs in the 100-103 area. The 107 was accomplished on Bute, at a track that often produces Beyers that are suspiciously high.

Likely projected figures before the race:

Dry Martini--102
Fairbanks--103
Diamond Stripes---106

These are the most likely numbers that could've occurred. In reality, the differential between Fairbanks and Dry Martini should be 2 pts, not 1. Based on this, Wanderin Boy would be 2 pts higher (1 length at 9f) than Diamond Stripes, giving him a 108. He's run a 107 and 106 on non-old Keeneland surfaces, so that is plausible. Higher than a 108 would not be likely. So for Lawyer Ron, we add on 8 pts, giving him a 116, a solid new top, but very likely considering his win margin. These are my projected figures (I use the Beyer scale):

Lawyer Ron 116
Wanderin Boy 108
Diamond Stripes 106
Fairbanks 103
Dry Martini 101

Great minds think alike, and Hopkins definitely got this one right on the money.