Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

I'm mildly shocked at the general lack of interest in the 4% Ellis Pick-4. I always thought horseplayers were smarter than typical gamblers, but I'm re-evaluating that position!

Anyway, in the hope of generating some more interest/attention for the 4% takeout experiment at Ellis, I'm going to keep a running total of my picks for the Ellis Pick-4 starting today (Wed, Aug 1).

Wed, Aug 1
6) 1,2,9
7) 1,4,11
8) all
9) 1,5,8,12

$1 each leg, $360 total.

--Dunbar

[viscount26]

pick 4
6th 1,3,5
7th 1,4
8th 8,9,10
9th 1,8,10

Good luck

[pweizer]

1-2-3-5-9
1-4-11
5-8-9-10
1-8

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Wed, Aug 1
6) 1,2,9
7) 1,4,11
8) all
9) 1,5,8,12

$1 each leg, $360 total.

Missed the 23.80 horse in the 6th. (viscount and pweizer both had it in their selections!) I had the $6.20, $14.00, $18.40 in the next 3. The payout for 50c was $6012!

Result: -$360
Total amt bet: $360

************************************************** *
Thurs, Aug 2:

Casting a wide net. I couldn't get away with this with a normal takeout. Even so, I may well hit the Pick-4 but lose on the bet.

6) 3,4,6,8,10
7) 4,6,7
8) 1,3,4,8,9,10
9) all

50c on each leg, $315 total.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Result: -$360
Total amt bet: $360

************************************************** *
Thurs, Aug 2:

Casting a wide net. I couldn't get away with this with a normal takeout. Even so, I may well hit the Pick-4 but lose on the bet.

6) 3,4,6,8,10
7) 4,6,7
8) 1,3,4,8,9,10
9) all

50c on each leg, $315 total.

Won by a nose in the 6th with the $12.40 #8;
Could have caught the tri in the 7th, with the 7,6,4 finish (winner paid $6.60)
won by 1/2 length in the 8th with the $17.00 #9;
Hoped for a 10-1 winner in the 9th but had to be content with the $8.60 #1.

The (8-7-9-1) 50c Pick-4 paid $709.35.
Daily result: +$394.35.

Overall:
Total bets: $675
Total return: $709.35
Net profit: $34.35

PS, a 50c parlay would have only paid $374.
A 25% takeout Pick-4 would have paid $554. (Attention Saratoga bettors!)
I'd rather have the $709.

*********************************************

Fri, Aug 3 selections:
(2 tickets, one for $1 and one for 50c)

$1
7) all
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 7
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$216

50c
7) 1,2,5
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 3,4,5,6
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$144

Total bets for Aug 3: $360

--Dunbar

[philcski]

8/4/07 P4
super multi-tiered approach.

2,5,7,11,12,13/2,3/1,6/1,11
3,6,10,14/2,3/1,6/1,11
2,13/2,3,7,8/1,6,8,10/1,11
2,13/2,3/1,6,7,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,9,11
5,7,11,12/2,3/1,6/1,2,3,4,5,9,11

total cost $232
objective is to get both of the first two legs home with 2,13/2,3

The 9th and 10th are wide open and i'm tempted to add a few to at least the 9th.

2,11,12,13
3,4,7
4,10
1,2
$48

Will post a few $.50 backup tickets later.



August 4, 2007

Scratches

Race 1 #2 Another Fine One
Race 1 #3 Music Major
Race 1 #8 Pewee Valley
Race 1 #12 Western Silk
Race 2 #7 Sinusosity
Race 3 #9 Double Lightning
Race 6 #7 Cecelia Rose
Race 7 #10 Moa Annette
Race 9 #9 Otis Ridge
Race 11 #7 Greve
Race 11 #9 Bebe Grand
Race 12 #11 Even Temper

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous Overall:
Total bets: $675
Total return: $709.35
Net profit: $34.35

Fri, Aug 3 selections:
(2 tickets, one for $1 and one for 50c)

$1
7) all
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 7
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$216

50c
7) 1,2,5
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 3,4,5,6
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$144

Total bets for Aug 3: $360

I had the winning 1-3-7-4 in my $1 ticket. Payoff was just $68. (a $1 win parlay would have paid just $38.20!)

Daily result: -292

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

************************************************** ******

Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I had the winning 1-3-7-4 in my $1 ticket. Payoff was just $68. (a $1 win parlay would have paid just $38.20!)

Daily result: -292

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

************************************************** ******

Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

--Dunbar

go get'em

good luck.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

go get'em

good luck.

Thanks, Jim. If I can get past my single, I'll like my chances!

I actually played it as a $2 ticket, because I'm aiming to pump $300-$400 into the 4% pool every day.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

************************************************** ******

Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

[Note: there was an error in my "Overall" stats yesterday. The "Total bets" should have been $1035 not $1073. The net loss is correct. I'll fix the total bets beginning with today's post, but I don't want to edit a selections post from earlier.]

My single in the 9th led until the stretch and then faded to 7th, beaten about 2 lengths.
I had the last 3 of the 4-2-10-1, but had my single come through, the payoff would have been more like $600 than the actual $9753.

And I should note that if Ellis had Saratoga's 25% takeout instead of 4%, the Pick 4 would have paid about $7600. That's an extra $2100 those Ellis winners collected thanks to the 4% takeout.

Daily result: -$160

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

************************************************

Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

--Dunbar

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good luck dunbar..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

************************************************

Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

Daily result: -$312

Overall:
Total bets: $1507
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$729.65

************************************************

Aug 8 selections:

$1 each:

6) 1,6,10
7) 5,6
8) 1,6,7
9) 3,4,5,10,11

Total bet for Aug 8: $90

101 deg at Ellis Park right now. "feels like" 112 according to weather.com. Wouldn't blame any horse for going on strike today.

--Dunbar