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#1
10-16-2007, 02:48 PM
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BC: Classic (PP's/Odds)
Classic
11th (5:35) Breeders' Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1) 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000 1 1 Lawyer Ron Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 5-2 2 2 Street Sense Borel C H Nafzger Carl A 121 L 3-1 3 3 Any Given Saturday Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 121 LA 4-1 4 4 Curlin Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 121 L 3-1 5 5 George Washington (IRE) Kinane M J O'Brien Aidan P 126 L 20-1 6 6 Awesome Gem Flores D R Dollase Craig 126 L 30-1 7 7 Diamond Stripes Velasquez C Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 15-1 8 8 Hard Spun Pino M G Jones J Larry 121 LA 8-1 9 9 Tiago Smith M E Shirreffs John 121 LA 12-1 Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-24-2007 at 10:44 AM. 
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#4
10-17-2007, 10:41 AM
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#6
10-17-2007, 11:47 AM
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You do understand that it costs a lot of money to run in a race like this and why would you want to pay all that money to get drilled?
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#7
10-17-2007, 12:19 PM
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It just means less horses to get in Calvin's way when he brings Street Sense up the rail to win. Even with the lack of early pace, I am still leaning toward a Curlin/Street Sense exacta box at this point.
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#8
10-17-2007, 04:39 PM
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#9
10-17-2007, 01:21 PM
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 on another note... I've like Street Sense since the BC Juvenile. (had a nice win bet and hit the trifecta) I just don't think there is enough in this race to get him there. The race will be decided on the back stretch and won by the 1/16th pole. [Of course this is before I see the PPs.] As far as the cost.. there is more to gain than the $5mil purse. There is stud fees. I know they already made their deals ahead of time but you know the other people involved would love to say, "winner of BC Juvenile/Classic" I would think Darley or whoever would pay the fees if they could set the race up for their future stud. but I think a lot of things that never happen.
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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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#10
10-17-2007, 03:07 PM
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#11
10-19-2007, 09:50 AM
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The Good Lord knows I've always admired Steve's fine work. Speaking of fine work,Steve.......I want to run just a short test of my BCC Analysis as we have switched from a trash can to a shredding machine. So if ya don't mind...... Lawyer Ron. Judge Judy. WHIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Hard Spun. Depth challenged. Congaree. And what have you. WHIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Thanks Steve. Work good.
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#12
10-19-2007, 02:22 PM
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Morty?
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http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#14
10-19-2007, 06:19 PM
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i think ags will be the value here cause the $$ will go on the big names.
im betting on him. i just wish invasor was still around to crush these upstarts the way he crushed frauderdini last year.
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the great avance has spoken.
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#15
10-17-2007, 10:42 PM
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AGS: AGS is gonna be a hot play because of his 2nd back performance at Monmouth, this we know. I don't really question his last race because Pletcher is just not getting his monster performances that he is used to. He runs that Monmouth race and he competes but I get the feeling those two efforts (2nd/3rd back) might have taken alot out of him. AwesomeGem: A faster man's Hard Spun, except this horse just can't get into the winner circle. Would like to see Craig Dollase get a win but think he is climbing an up hill battle Curlin: Another amazing horse with a great sheet with obvious recent care and caution with his races. Got back to his top in his last race and is co-2ndfastest with AGS. Getting back to that top with the careful planning should show a move forward GW: Co-slowest along with along with the wap, Thank you Aiden for entering as this horse will take a little action because of last years' so-called decent performance HS: Has run three of the same numbers, two of them around two turns, and I can see why people will argue him being on a lonely lead. Obviously if they let him chill out there he will be tough because he has some guts but would have to improve about 2.5 pts to win this, not happening unless a slow pace happens, which I doubt. LR: After his two performances at Saratoga, I would ready to hand him this race. His last race, TG wise, is loaded with wideness, which those numbers I tend to question a little. That being said, he is still the fastest horse in the race and others will have to improve to catch him. SS: SS's TG pattern is SCARY GOOD. It is EXACTLY like his prepping for the KY Derby, where he ran a monsterous race. The four race pattern is a thing of beauty. I fully expect him to run a top right into the breeding shed Tiago: Co-slowest along with the president, thank you for being a money eater Tiago and George Washington have no shot. Hard Spun can win, but only on a lonely lead and slow fractions. LR, Street Sense, Curlin and AGS all have shots at winning Best Sheet for improvement: T - Street Sense and Curlin Most Likely winner: Lawyer Ron
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#16
10-18-2007, 06:47 AM
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I hope that there is a decent pace in this race. Street Sense could be pressing but to win he will need to sit back and wait. Carl Nafzger said he is ready to run like he was for the Tamba Bay Derby (not the Ky Derby). Is he suggesting that Any Given Saturday is The Horse to beat? Monmouth is notoriously early speed bias. Someone else mentioned them killing the rail to make it play fair. That will hurt Calvin's preferred style. However, I think someone would finally decide to stay in the way as a few will be in front of him.
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#17
10-18-2007, 09:15 AM
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It's tough when you handicap such a quality race. One of the pillars of solid wagering is the best bet in racing is lone speed. Hard Spun is without a doubt lone speed in the Classic. But then folks would argue that Class trumps speed, especially going long. Interesting puzzle.
I think the questions with Hard Spun are: (1) Is Street Sense as good as he was in May? If you think he's tailed-off, while Hard Spun has largely maintained similar form, certainly the scales are tipping. (2) Monmouth's track. Does it favor the front-end throughout the week? (3) Lawyer Ron holds the key to Hard Spun's Classic winning move. Does he press the 3-year-old? Is he rank and intractable? How long does Johnny V. let him go for? Tough stuff...
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#18
10-18-2007, 03:18 PM
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I don't get why so many people think that Hard Spun will be lone speed here. I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I believe Lawyer Ron will press him. It may not be in the first quarter or three furlongs but by the time they reach the half mile mark, I believe that Lawyer Ron will have moved up to engage him and the battle will be on. It will cause both horses to go a little faster than they want to go from the half to the 6f mark and weaken both of their stretch runs. Lawyer Ron will put Hard Spun away by the time they hit the top of the lane but will have nothing left to hold off the late runners in the final 8th. Curlin is my choice to win this race and Lawyer Ron is my choice to run third. For the second spot, I'm leaning towards towards AGS but will also play GW and Street Sense there.
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#19
10-18-2007, 05:42 PM
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early tactics
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Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway. Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again. If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.
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