11/24: Coast2Coast! (AQ/LRL/CD)

[Kasept]

No cause for giving thanks Friday as I get widely crushed across the board. Huge day of racing Saturday and carryovers aplenty with AQU ($119k) and HOL ($144k) the lures and Churchill ($25k) even getting into the P6 act on a day where the 2yo card is fabulous. Laurel P4 includes the DeFrancis, Futurity and Selima.


AQUEDUCT


4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Lyke a Hurricane 6-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Front Money 12-1 DNF
Next Best: #1 Raffie's Deer 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Smart Thinker 12-1 4th


5th: 63rd Discovery H. (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (P3, G/S)

Most Likely: #2 Buffalo Man 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Shopton Lane 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Now a Victor 2-1 WON


6th: 86th Demoiselle (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 9f (P4, DD)

Very difficult edition of this important 2yo filly stake; Spreading wide in multis looks like a necessity..

Most Likely: #3 Mushka 5-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Melissa Jo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Be Fruitful 6-1 7th


7th: 94th Remsen (Gr. II), 2yo, 9f (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Court Vision 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Springs Road 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Atoned 7-2 2nd


8th: 19th Cigar Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Midnight Lute 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Sir Greeley 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Daaher 3-1 WON


9th: NYB-ALW, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 MUNITION 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Dr. D.F.C. 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Premier Perfection 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Burn One Turn One 15-1 9th


P6 Play:

Main (Backups)

4: 2-11 (1-6)
5: 2-7 (1-3-5)
6: 1-3 (2-4-5-7)
7: 1-2-6 (3)
8: 2 (3-5)
9: 5 (2-7-9)


P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5-7
7: 1-2-6
8: 2-3-5
9: 5

5x3x3x1 = $45



LAUREL


7th: The Selima, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wind in My Wings 6-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Fareena 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 SCR
Super Add: #6 Bsharpsonata 8-1 WON


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, Super)

Fabulous betting race with 5-2 ML Hot Sunrise a highly vulnerable fave..

Most Likely: #5 Emishi Warrior 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Beck and Call 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Apache Road 2-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Joel's Touch 12-1 3rd


9th: Laurel Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

One of my favorite races of the year and always a bellweather for quality.. Top choices from Motion, Pletcher are parked outside opening this up to trip speculation.. No need to accept short tote on key players..

Most Likely: #10 SCR
Best Value: #3 Loveyouintheworld 15-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Adriano 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Bearactor 8-1 4th


10th: DeFrancis Memorial Dash (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Talent Search 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Saint Anddan 8-1
Next Best: #1a (POE) Benny the Bull 9-5 WON


P4 Play:

Main (Backups)

7: 5-11 (4/SCR-6)
8: 5-10 (3-9)
9: 3-6-12 (2-13)
10: 1-2 (5)



CHURCHILL

Rolling DD's R1-R11; Rolling P3's R1-R10; P4's R1-R5-R9; P6 R7; Supers in all..

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f

Most Likely: #4 Acacia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Highest Class 9-2 WON
Next Best: #7 Coy Cat 3-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Temper Temper 8-1 2nd


2nd: ALW/N2X, 2yo, 6f

Most Likely: #1 E Z Phone Home 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Whysoblue 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Georgetown 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Devereux 5-2 3rd


3rd: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Syriana's Song 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Rumari 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Anachini 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 American Country 7-2 WON


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f

Most Likely: #11 Spine Tingling 5-1 9th
Best Value: #9 Ballynoe 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Elusive Sparkle 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Sweet Redeemer 15-1 4th


P4 Play:

1: 1-4
2: 1-7
3: 2-8-9
4: 4-8-9-11

2x2x3x4 = $48


5th: 4th Caressing H., 2yo-F, 1m-T

Most Likely: #1e Oliver entry 5-2 2nd/4th
Best Value: #5 Little Stinger 15-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Mine Or Who's 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Vancy Pants 15-1 8th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f

Most Likely: #2 Truth Rules 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Denis of Cork 12-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Stungbythestorm 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Calzone 5-1 7th

$1 Exacta $46.70


7th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m

Most Likely: #10 Latest Scoop 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Miss Isella 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 High Surf 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Girl From Seattle 8-1 8th


8th: 4th Grand Canyon, 2yo, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #9 Old Man Buck 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #10 Cherokee Triangle 7-2 8th
Super Add: #5 Caberneigh 10-1 4th


P4 Play:

5: 1
6: 2-5-6-7-8-10
7: 3-10
8: 3/SCR-5-9-10

1x6x2x3 = $36


9th: 84th Golden Rod (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 8.5f

Most Likely: #3 Turn Away 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Pure Clan 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Sunday Holiday 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Morakami 10-1 5th


10th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m

Most Likely: #4 Jedi Code 7-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Web Gem 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Macho Again 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #12 Monba 6-1 WON


11th: Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr. II), 2yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #3 Halo Najib 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Anak Nakal 6-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Racecar Rhapsody 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Cool Coal Man 5-2 7th


12th: MSW, 2yo, 9f

Most Likely: #12 King's Silver Son 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Spot Gold 20-1 12th
Next Best: #6 Tizzy 9-2 8th
Super Add: #11 SCR


P4 Play:

9: 1-3
10: 4-6-10
11: 1-3-5-6
12: 4-12

2x3x4x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[blackthroatedwind]

Couple thoughts.....


How is Helsinki not one of the three likeliest horses in the Remsen? And, along with that, how can Shopton Lane possibly be competitive there?

In the 9th at Aqueduct, shouldn't In the Spotlight at least be somewhere in your top four?

On Lyke a Hurricane, look it's obviously a weak field, but don't you think a sharp guy like Bruce Levine would have run him on the dirt at least once if he thought he had any ability whatsoever on that surface?

In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.

[ArlJim78]

correction, Helsinki is in the Discovery, not the Remsen.

[Payson Dave]

BTW...would you be willing to share your thoughts on John Kimmel's 2yo filly Elusive Lady?
I'm thinking that Nick Zito may be sitting on a pretty good day at Churchill today...

[blackthroatedwind]

Thanks Jim. I would like him in the Remsen as well though.

I don't like Elusive Lady but it's a very difficult race to decipher. Totally different set up for her today after she loafed on the lead last time. However, it's a tough race to either like anyone or eliminate anyone.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Couple thoughts..

How is Helsinki not one of the three likeliest horses in the Remsen? And, along with that, how can Shopton Lane possibly be competitive there?

In the 9th at Aqueduct, shouldn't In the Spotlight at least be somewhere in your top four?

On Lyke a Hurricane, look it's obviously a weak field, but don't you think a sharp guy like Bruce Levine would have run him on the dirt at least once if he thought he had any ability whatsoever on that surface?

In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.

Mewsina does look interesting but was concerned already with the wide drawn inclusions. Should be a great race..

Spotlight's OK.. appears no better to me than those I'm using..

Helsinki looks to me like he doesn't get as hot a pace to close into as he seems to need.

Lyke a Hurricane? What's the difference what Levine thought now? The blinks, Lasix and Coa are as compelling an argument for him with these as anything else.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Lyke a Hurricane? What's the difference what Levine thought now? The blinks, Lasix and Coa are as compelling an argument for him with these as anything else.

Did you think this through?

Trainers run horses on the turf, in general, because they are too slow to be competitive on the dirt. I am quite confident this is why Bruce Levine, his former trainer, and a perennial leading trainer, never entered him on the dirt. His opinion in this case matters a great deal to me as he knows this horse a whole helluva lot better than I do.

If he was 20-1 and you wanted to take a flyer that's fine, but he's going to be one of the favorites, and to me he is a horrendous bet at any kind of shortish price.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did you think this through? Trainers run horses on the turf, in general, because they are too slow to be competitive on the dirt. I am quite confident this is why Bruce Levine, his former trainer, and a perennial leading trainer, never entered him on the dirt. His opinion in this case matters a great deal to me as he knows this horse a whole helluva lot better than I do.

If he was 20-1 and you wanted to take a flyer that's fine, but he's going to be one of the favorites, and to me he is a horrendous bet at any kind of shortish price.

I get it. Levine thought what he thought and tried what he tried. Duggan trains him now though, and is putting blinkers on him, something he has success with.. in fact a lot of success with. It's a bad bunch and personally prefer Front Money at his 12-1 ML number, but expect an effort from Lyke under the scenario.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Couple thoughts.....


In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.

This was a visually impressive effort but

the race was slow (relative to the other turf race of the day --2year old filly stake)

and he ran the last 1/8th slower than the penultimate 1/8th

contrast this with, for example, the last races of Seaspeak and (especially) La Mina, both also stretching out but having accelerated the last 1/8th

[Borntorun]

Here's my chalky Pick 4 with Midnight Lute as my single:

6th: 1,2,3,4,7
7th: 1,3
8th: 2
9th: 2,5,9,10

$40 ticket.

[Kasept]

$11,000 P3 ($1) at Churchill as D. Wayne gets Cozy Mesa home for Marylou..

$36,500 ($1) will pay P4 and 5 of them pay 3 of 4...

[Kasept]

HOLLYWOOD


5th: Miesque (Gr. III), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Sea Chanter 5-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Golden Doc A 20-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #1 La Mina 6-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Runforthemoneylady 7-2 7th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Smokey Route 20-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Topanga Canyon 12-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Phoebe's Song 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Romanced 9-2 10th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Tayla Renee 5-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Lightmyfirebaby 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Mandella entry 6-1
Super Add: #6 Eva Beaver 9-2 4th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Curiously Sweet 3-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Royal Heraldry 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Siamese Cat 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Sports Edition 6-1 7th


9th: 22nd Turf Express (Gr. III), 3+, 6f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #8 T. D. Vance 5-1 8th
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #5 Bonfante 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Quietly Mine 7-2 4th


10th: CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Pt's Grey Eagle 5-1 11th
Best Value: #9 Golden Royal 5-1 10th
Next Best: #6 New Rule 6-1 2nd-DH
Super Adds: #11 Norway House 9-2 8th/#4 Fogged In 8-1 2nd-DH


P6 Play:

5: 9 (1-5-10)
6: 6-8 (5-10)
7: 1-7-9 (6)
8: 3-6
9: 8 (2-4-5)
10: 7-9 (4-6-11)


Good luck!
Steve

[TheSpyder]

Stevo,

Too much turkey? Looks like you're in a funk here buddy.

I always stand up turn around twice and sit back down.

You'll be back and look to see you AQU picks today cause you're due!

Spyder

[Scav]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Stevo,

Too much turkey? Looks like you're in a funk here buddy.

I always stand up turn around twice and sit back down.

You'll be back and look to see you AQU picks today cause you're due!

Spyder

Were you hammered when you wrote this or were you joking? The guy had winners everywhere this weekend

[Kasept]

Thx Scavs.. Did get tortured in some P4's with agonizing misses and struggled to catch exotics, but I thought I had identified some key horses Thurs-Sat. Was particularly pleased with Mushka, Clear Thinking, Cowboy Hardware, Kettlewonup, Stormin Baghdad, Highest Class, Ballynoe, Denis of Cork, Pure Clan and Anak Nakal as Best Value or Most Likely horses.. (I might not have been great, but I didn't think I was a doorknob either...)

[TheSpyder]

Just looked like he was so close on multiple races having most of the winners but just missing.

Originally Posted by Scav

Were you hammered when you wrote this or were you joking? The guy had winners everywhere this weekend