11/28: AQU Inner Opener

[Kasept]

Big A action moves to the quirky inner track today for a long run; Grass still an option at least for a few days. The inner is not always as ridiculously speed-favoring as it's made out to be, though recent seasons have shown there will be stretches where cheap frontrunners hang on and on and on for days, or weeks, at a time... What is most consistant about the inner, is the way some campaigners succeed over it year after year. Horses that are ordinary at Belmont and Saratoga, and even the Aqueduct main, regularly become Citations on the 'inner tube'.

Opening Day of the Winter Session has a tough P4 sequence as the $25k/NW3L 7th looks particularly like a trap race with many seemingly capable of upsetting.


AQUEDUCT

POST SCR/CHG'S... 6th OFF THE TURF... Inner labeled Fast...

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, DD)

OFF THE TURF.. SCR 1, 2, 8, 9...

Best Value: #2b Mustand Cali 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #1a In for a Dime 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Make It Come True 9-2: Hennig Spa maiden-breaker working steady for return.. 5th
Exotics Add: #6 Miss Buddhafull 4-1 3rd


7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-70y, (P3, Super)

Consider adding #'s 6-8 for deeper multi-race wagers..

Best Value: #5 Unbridled Danger 10-1: Class edge looking back; Zippy drills.. 5th
Most Likely: #7 Too Risky 3-1: Levine has had time to adjust 5yo.. WON
Next Best: #10 Tahoe Warrior 5-1: Expect Rice acquiree to send under CC.. 4th
Exotics Add: #4 Six Gun 15-1: Dunham winless on year; Bay sharp this strip earlier.. 3rd


8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Lady Limit 6-1: Badgett bay prefers 'fast' surfaces.. 7th
Most Likely: #1a (POE) Rizzi's Twist 2-1: State-bred owns fig edge but will need rally.. 5th
Next Best: #2e McLaughlin entry 5-2: 1a Wild Hoots cuts back, goes T2D.. 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 Fearless Leader 8-1: Lerman namesake aced Swamp MSW, but no drill since.. 2nd


9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (Super)

Best Value: #6 Chernobyl's Hero 12-1: Odinitz going well; Gelding ITM 4 of 5 this strip.. 4th
Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR
Next Best: #7 Love Abroad 8-1: Hertler bay has done best running this oval.. WON
Exotics Add: #8 True Wood 7-2: Wide drawn colt was used early last; Faces similar issue here.. 3rd


Main considerations for P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4
7: 5-7
8: 1-2-4
9: 1-6-7


Good luck!
Steve

[pmacdaddy]

Thanks Steve! Glad to have your input at AQU.

The "Inner Track Lovers" you mentioned is something I really keyed in on last year. Also found it especially useful when those type went off the Inner and got overbet. .

Any thoughts on how the inner track changes once the ground freezes? Is that when certain horses really outperform on the inner, or is it just a function of the surface in general?

[blackthroatedwind]

The 6th is off the turf ( which is a blessing if you really liked the Hennig horse ).

[Pistol]

I relly like Jenny's On Radio in this race to run a big one.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 6th is off the turf ( which is a blessing if you really liked the Hennig horse ).

Thx Andrew!

Here's the complete SCR/CHG...
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

[Kasept]

Sickened.. Got off Survived with the move from the grass.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Sickened.. Got off Survived with the move from the grass.

Me too... Featured him prominently when I thought race was on grass. Was hard for me to like very much considering his 3 dirt starts on the program. Damn you Gary Contessa...lol.