TAMPA Thursday 1/31 P4

[Rudeboyelvis]

Race 7
3 Dawn Raider 2nd
4 Addemup
7 Vanquished WON
10 Romp 3rd
AE: 12 Cloth if Gold if draws in SCR

Race 8
3 Bobbie's the Best
7 Miss Malakia
2 Full Exertion

Race 9
4 Born a Ledgend
3 Oberalp
7 Fiddler

Race 10
10 Bastion of Style
7 Shegoestoeleven
4 Meredith
8 Gal's Victory
2 Shades of success


Big - 3,4,7,10//2,3,7//4,3,7//2,4,7,8,10 180.00
Small - 3,4,7,10//3//3,4,7//2,4,7,8,10 60.00

[Bigsmc]

Race 7

3 - Dawn Raider
7 - Vanquisher

Race 8

6 - Secret Lies (as much as I like my boy Ernie Mello on a personal basis, this is as big a trainer change as you'll see....Ness 43% off the claim with a 72 horse sample)
3 - Bobbie's the Best

Race 9

3 - Oberalp
4 - Born a Legend
5 - Rocket Booster (will be very tough on the turnback from 8f)
7 - Fiddler

Race 10

2 - Shades of Success
4 - Meredith
10 - Bastion of Style

Small Ticket:

3,7/3,6/3,4,5,7/2,4,10 = $48

Big Ticket:

3,7/2,3,6,7/3,4,5,7/1,2,4,7,8,10 = $192

GL to all playing today.

[docicu3]

Part of my learning process with this place is realizing who is likely to bring a horse to a place you can see on TGH but not necessarily part of the PP's.

Tampa seems to be about being aware of the folks who kick ass there every meet and what to do with them...eg KB,Scarce,Zaide etc...



In Race 7 a turf mile that probably is chalky for the Tampa experts with Jaime Ness/Centeno Dawn Raider or DB with Vanquisher claimed from Mott coming back from 2/3 rds of a year "freshening" with recent solid works but after you decide how serious to penalize the outside posts for bad position in a sprint/route which is how I look at mile races. I see outside posts as a notch less of a threat unless you can flash enough ES to be near the lead within the first half mile.

Does the Tampa Tribunal (Elvis,Bigs,GPK) and anyone else who plays here consistently know anything about the trainer that would support this.

Can you see the #5 Psychic Star who has decent recent closing #'s per Bris and very competitive TGH #'s out of Military who is a 14% turf sire. I know nothing of Carl Cooper or Pablo Morales but if the pattern holds at some point this horse is likely to run a "4" again from these "7"s previously and a 4 may be enough to win here....To be fair previous turf form has been lacking but the #'s are setting up differently now as there may be a X-2 type of move forward here

If he were to win a price would exceed $20 to win......

Again the AE's define the race if in but if the 12,13,14 can be kept on the bench a surprise closing from the #5 may be in the offing.

If I get the time I'll throw out a P4 but for tri's and supers but I see this race as a key to the P4 sequence today as the others may be more predictable on first blush.

3,5,7/3,5,7,10/2,3,5,7,10/2,4,5,6,10

If AE's are in the whole race changes and I'll pass....

Good Luck DT'ers...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Part of my learning process with this place is realizing who is likely to bring a horse to a place you can see on TGH but not necessarily part of the PP's.

Tampa seems to be about being aware of the folks who kick ass there every meet and what to do with them...eg KB,Scarce,Zaide etc...



In Race 7 a turf mile that probably is chalky for the Tampa experts with Jaime Ness/Centeno Dawn Raider or DB with Vanquisher claimed from Mott coming back from 2/3 rds of a year "freshening" with recent solid works but after you decide how serious to penalize the outside posts for bad position in a sprint/route which is how I look at mile races. I see outside posts as a notch less of a threat unless you can flash enough ES to be near the lead within the first half mile.

Does the Tampa Tribunal (Elvis,Bigs,GPK) and anyone else who plays here consistently know anything about the trainer that would support this.

Can you see the #5 Psychic Star who has decent recent closing #'s per Bris and very competitive TGH #'s out of Military who is a 14% turf sire. I know nothing of Carl Cooper or Pablo Morales but if the pattern holds at some point this horse is likely to run a "4" again from these "7"s previously and a 4 may be enough to win here....To be fair previous turf form has been lacking but the #'s are setting up differently now as there may be a X-2 type of move forward here

If he were to win a price would exceed $20 to win......

Again the AE's define the race if in but if the 12,13,14 can be kept on the bench a surprise closing from the #5 may be in the offing.

If I get the time I'll throw out a P4 but for tri's and supers but I see this race as a key to the P4 sequence today as the others may be more predictable on first blush.

3,5,7/3,5,7,10/2,3,5,7,10/2,4,5,6,10

If AE's are in the whole race changes and I'll pass....

Good Luck DT'ers...

WOW!!! Nice work Doc!

I don't use a terrible amount of technical analysis at Tampa- the place seems to play pretty straight to form and Cooper (5% for the meet) seems to place horses wherever he can fit them in, rather than where they can win.
I'd like Psychic Star as a contender in that with 5 wins, he's faced much stiffer competition at open clm 16 than any of these others have faced in conditioned claiming efforts or N1X. The huge downside for me is the turf form (0-6), and just don't think he gets to the 3 here. But definately would use under in exotics

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Race 8

6 - Secret Lies (as much as I like my boy Ernie Mello on a personal basis, this is as big a trainer change as you'll see....Ness 43% off the claim with a 72 horse sample)

This race falls in the "glass half-empty" 57% of the time side of the stat. I'll officially go on the record and borrow BTW's dunce cap for this one

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

This race falls in the "glass half-empty" 57% of the time side of the stat. I'll officially go on the record and borrow BTW's dunce cap for this one

LOL!! Nice work Mike - Dunce cap at the ready

8th Race

Off: 3:47 | 1 1/16 Miles | 4 Year Olds And Up | Claiming ($8,000 - $7,000) | Purse:

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Secret Lies Centeno D E 118 6.80 5.00 4.00
7 Miss Malakia Ramgeet A R 120 5.80 3.40
8 Plays Pops Choice Rocco J S Jr 118 4.80


Finish Time: 1:46.83

Scratched: Cruzan Fling

Also ran: Full Exertion, Bobbie's the Best, Queen's Crumpets and Eva's Event

Winning Trainer: Ness Jamie - Owner: Web's Gem Stable and Jagger, Inc.

$2 Exacta (6-7) Paid $36.00

$2 Trifecta (6-7-8) Paid $162.20

$1 Superfecta (6-7-8-2) Paid $391.40

$2 Pick 3 (5-7-6) 3 Correct Paid $119.40 Pick 3 Pool $8,220




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Bigsmc]

I'm sure nobody remebers this, but this is what I said on January 5, 2008:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Spot play:

I love the 4-Willsboro Point in the 6th. This Point Given gelding has been prepped on Roy Lerman's farm (so don't let the slow works bother you) and has the bloodlines to be a nice turfer. His dam, Petrouchka (Red Ransom) won over 50% of her grass races including a Graded Stake. Should be a nice price today as the other firsters in the race, for Dale Bennett and Dominic Schettino, should take more money than this one.

So last night I am in my hotel room and saw this one was making his second lifetime start today. A check of TG tells me he really doesn't have to improve much to compete here. Since he was in the 5th race, I looked at a couple Pick 3's that involve the 5th. I pieced together a $3 ticket (singling the 8 in the 4th and the 8 in the 5th) in the 3-4-5 races and I put together a $5 ticket with races 4-5-6, thinking I would bang each ticket a few times. There is no Pick 3 starting with the 5th so I stopped at that. I got busy at work and was nowhere near an internet connection in BFE North Carolina. At about noon, I thought about calling my wife to see if she could put the tickets in for me, but I just said screw it it will be a pain in the ass and didn't call her.

I just got back to my hotel room and watched the replays. I want to throw up.....

Willsboro Point went wire to wire and paid $77.80 to win. Races 3-4-5 P3 paid $1,342.30 for each $1 and the P3 for races 4-5-6 paid $1,055.60 for each $1.

Did I mention that I want to throw up?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I'm sure nobody remebers this, but this is what I said on January 5, 2008:



So last night I am in my hotel room and saw this one was making his second lifetime start today. A check of TG tells me he really doesn't have to improve much to compete here. Since he was in the 5th race, I looked at a couple Pick 3's that involve the 5th. I pieced together a $3 ticket (singling the 8 in the 4th and the 8 in the 5th) in the 3-4-5 races and I put together a $5 ticket with races 4-5-6, thinking I would bang each ticket a few times. There is no Pick 3 starting with the 5th so I stopped at that. I got busy at work and was nowhere near an internet connection in BFE North Carolina. At about noon, I thought about calling my wife to see if she could put the tickets in for me, but I just said screw it it will be a pain in the ass and didn't call her.

I just got back to my hotel room and watched the replays. I want to throw up.....

Willsboro Point went wire to wire and paid $77.80 to win. Races 3-4-5 P3 paid $1,342.30 for each $1 and the P3 for races 4-5-6 paid $1,055.60 for each $1.

Did I mention that I want to throw up?

I remember that. I bet him the first time based on your analysis. Didn't even know he was running back today.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I'm sure nobody remebers this, but this is what I said on January 5, 2008:



So last night I am in my hotel room and saw this one was making his second lifetime start today. A check of TG tells me he really doesn't have to improve much to compete here. Since he was in the 5th race, I looked at a couple Pick 3's that involve the 5th. I pieced together a $3 ticket (singling the 8 in the 4th and the 8 in the 5th) in the 3-4-5 races and I put together a $5 ticket with races 4-5-6, thinking I would bang each ticket a few times. There is no Pick 3 starting with the 5th so I stopped at that. I got busy at work and was nowhere near an internet connection in BFE North Carolina. At about noon, I thought about calling my wife to see if she could put the tickets in for me, but I just said screw it it will be a pain in the ass and didn't call her.

I just got back to my hotel room and watched the replays. I want to throw up.....

Willsboro Point went wire to wire and paid $77.80 to win. Races 3-4-5 P3 paid $1,342.30 for each $1 and the P3 for races 4-5-6 paid $1,055.60 for each $1.

Did I mention that I want to throw up?

OUCH. Unfortunately I know the feeling and can empathize to a degree for I bet this one first out as well...my day job got in the way of me getting back aboard today with a simple $10WP play. I am sick myself. Not often will we get $77 winners.