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#1
02-12-2008, 08:14 AM
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Tampa Tuesday 02-12-08
pm rain in the forecast today. Not sure when it will start. I've handicapped for fast/firm because I looked at it last night and had no clue it was going to rain.
Race 7 - Hcp 16000s About 1 1/16 Turf 6 - Starlight Serenade - Ran a big one off a brief freshening against much tougher. Centeno off is not a huge concern here as he has gone over to his main man Ness. A repeat of his last will crush these. 5 - Sir Swervalot - Horse for the course with the Centeno/Ness magic. Rattled off several in a row last year in front running fashion. Race 8 - Clm 16000 1 1/16 Dirt 3 - Prince Nick - Back to Gerald Bennett after a one race stay with DeMasi. Right back to his winning ways. 2 - Admiral's Arch - Drops to a level below his claim price. The all important Ness switch from Ramgeet to his go to guy. 1 - Big Tex - Looks to have the lead from the rail in a short field. Might not look back. Race 9 - OC 32k/N2X Abt 5.0f Turf 1 - Bikini Atoll - The one to catch from the rail. 2 - Fast Hand - The gap between races are a bit of a concern for this one, but she ran huge in December beating Bikini Atoll. 6 - Remember Shirley - Willing to give this one another chance on the blades. The first turf try was dull. She's a better horse now and will be flying late. 7 - Offbeat Fashion - Not a huge fan of Euros making their first US start going 5f. They tend to break slowly and leave themselves too much work to do late. That said, Clement looks to have this one ready to go. They thought enough of her to throw her to the wolves in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year. Scr 11 - Jp'shanna - Draws in, must overcome the outside post. Fits in perfectly with the top two choices. Race 10 - Clm 6250 1 1/16 Dirt 6 - Full Exertion - Positive jock switch, slight drop in class and not much to beat = potential winner. 8 - Seducing Mr. G - Positive jock switch, stretch out to a distance that the horse has won twice in two races and not much to beat = potential winner. 10 - Ravishing Ruby - If Willie can settle this one down, she may be the one to beat. Has enough speed to overcome the outside post. Wire to wire candidate. Did I mention, there isn't much to beat here? Scr 4 - Cruzan Fling - Keeps dropping to find the right level. Two wins over this surface. Small Ticket: 5,6/1,2,3/1,2,6/4,6,8 = $54 Big Ticket: 5,6/1,2,3,4,5/1,2,6,11/4,6,8 = $120 GL Last edited by Bigsmc : 02-12-2008 at 11:53 AM. 
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#2
02-12-2008, 10:56 AM
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Interesting firster in today's 4th, 1 - East Coaster has been working at the Ocala Training Center for her debut, but tossed in a nice (for 12.5k MCL horses) breeze over the Tampa surface on Saturday. She's by Graeme Hall who has been more than adequate with first time starters and with a Kirk Zaidie firster in the race and under the radar connections, she will be a juicy price.
Her full brother won at first asking, although it was going longer, she looks to have enough speed to hang with these. She does not have to be much to beat this bunch. The highest lifetime Beyer in the race is a 41. I am going to try to single her in the pick 3's revolving around this race and see if we can get her to pop from the inside at big odds. GL
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#3
02-12-2008, 11:32 AM
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Tuesday, February 12, 2008
TRACK: Fast TURF: Firm Portable rail: at 0 Weather: Mostly Cloudy � mid 70�s Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $24,134.27 RACE 1 No Changes Post Time 12:35 RACE 2 #2-+2 #7-+2 #10-jockey TBA Post Time 1:02 RACE 3 #3-+1 #11-+4 Post Time 1:29 RACE 4 #6-+2 #7-Scratched(Alie�s Love Story) #11-+1 Post Time 1:56 RACE 5 #10-Scratched(Ballerina Bunny) Post Time 2:23 RACE 6 #3-+4 Post Time 2:50 RACE 7 (Turf) #1-+1 #10-+2 #11-+5 #12-+1 #13-Scratched(Judith�s Lake) #14-Scratched(Dancer�s Legacy) Post Time 3:17 RACE 8 No Changes Post Time 3:44 RACE 9 (Turf) #7-Scratched(Offbeat Fashion) #11-jockey P. Morales #12-Scratched(Mo�s Prize) #13-Scratched(Whitefish) #14-Scratched(Queen Amira) Post Time 4:11 RACE 10 #5-jockey W. Galvez #10-Scratched(Ravishing Ruby) Post Time 4:38 Last edited by Bigsmc : 02-12-2008 at 11:48 AM.
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#4
02-12-2008, 11:35 AM
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Bah. I capped for Fast/Firm too. If it rains then I will just pass. There are a number of AEs that would have to be included too depending on scratches. Will update with my actuals tickets later.
Race 7 - Tons of speed in this race and should set up for a closer. At this low level, a lot of these older horses have shown races in their last 10 that can beat this field. Going deep should I play back ups. A - 6 Starlight Serenade A - 12 Manchu Prince B - 3 Bridled Quest B - 4 Mesawmi B - 5 Sir Swervalot B - 8 Dinner in Odem Race 8 - Not a lot of pace in this race. Perhaps Big Tex or Prince Nick coming out of sprints will lead. Must include both plus the class dropper Admiral's Arch and the in form Systamatic Saint. A - 1 Big Tex A - 2 Admiral's Arch A - 3 Prince Nick B - 4 Systamatic Saint Race 9 - Looking for those close to the front. Have to use the Euro even though he may not like the short distance. Connections and class are so strong that he is a must include. A - 1 Bikini Atoll A - 2 Fast Hand A - 11 Jp'shanna B - 6 Remember Shriley Race 10 - Typical low level claimer. Will take the 4 favorites and most in form horses. A - 6 Full Exertion B - 4 Cruzan Fling B - 8 Seducing Mr. G Last edited by tiggerv : 02-12-2008 at 02:53 PM.
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#5
02-12-2008, 11:38 AM
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Race 7
6 Starlight serenade 3rd 12 Manchu Prince 3 Bridled quest 9 Onotheregostokyo WON 53.40 19.20 7.00 5 Sir Swervalot Not the same since the late summer layoff - 4th start off on bettering form @ clm25 w/ a positive equipment change and oh yeah, Ness/Centeno  may not look the part on paper, but impossible to leave off 2ndRace 8 3 Prince Nick WON 2 Admirals arch 3rd Race 9 2 Fast hand 4th 11 Jp'shanna WON 1 Bikini Atoll 2nd 6 Remember Shirley Race 10 6 full exertion 4th 5 Champagne Sunrise WON 29.40 11.40 8.40 3 Queens Crumpets 4 Cruzan Fling 2nd Big - 3,5,6,9,12//2,3//1,2,6,11//3,4,5,6 160.00 3912.30 Small - 3,5,6,9,12//2,3//1,2,11//3,5,6 90.00 3912.30 Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 02-12-2008 at 04:38 PM.
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#6
02-12-2008, 11:54 AM
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#7
02-12-2008, 12:01 PM
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#8
02-12-2008, 12:06 PM
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Smooth Wind looks live in the opener despite having to face one of Jamie Ness' super first off the claimers.
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#9
02-12-2008, 12:06 PM
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Starting to rain lightly here in Safety Harbor (about 15 min west of Oldsmar)
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#10
02-12-2008, 12:22 PM
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#11
02-12-2008, 04:40 PM
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#14
02-12-2008, 07:07 PM
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#16
02-12-2008, 01:27 PM
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Race 3
John David
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#20
02-12-2008, 01:59 PM
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Hybrid Mode
