Big Brown Derby Odds off of win

jms62 · #1 03-30-2008, 09:53 AM

10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?

fpsoxfan · #2 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM

Right now I think that's overlayed, but who knows?

ateamstupid · #3 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM

Where are these odds? That seems like a pretty big overlay. You'll be lucky if you get half that on Derby day.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #4 03-30-2008, 10:05 AM

Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.

jms62 · #5 03-30-2008, 10:08 AM

Update

The number is on Bodog BUT I just noticed that the wager was closed so it probably was prior to yesterdays race... I'll repost when it opens but my thoughts are 4-1 or less

jms62 · #6 03-30-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

fpsoxfan · #7 03-30-2008, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #8 03-30-2008, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.

Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ???

Danzig · #9 03-30-2008, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

funny you say that, since i was thinking big brown was this years bellamy road!

Ogygian · #10 03-30-2008, 11:51 AM

The performance was impressive, especially all the hype regarding the poor post. Elysium Fields was very disappointing, Tomcito ran a decent race off a lay off and Steve predicted a good run from Smooth Air.Lets see what happens after the Wood and which War Pass shows up, I could see a speed duel in the derby setting up nicely for El Gato Malo or Court Vision.

zippyneedsawin · #11 03-30-2008, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Underlay? How so?

I think clunker or not by War Pass and Big Brown will be a significant favorite, assuming he makes the race. I'm thinking 5-2 or less.

That sounds about right.

Scav · #12 03-30-2008, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?

At 10/1 I would even play the horse....

Try more like 4/1 favorite, especially becuase they will connect him to the "Barbaro route"

Dunbar · #13 03-30-2008, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

At 10/1 I would even play the horse....

Try more like 4/1 favorite, especially becuase they will connect him to the "Barbaro route"

I could have had 7-1 at CRIS immediately after the race yesterday, but decided against it. First, I wasn't sure that was good enough; second, I already have a good chunk of change on All Others from Pool 1 of the Ky Derby Future Wager, and a smaller amount on All Others from Pool 2.

Odds now at both CRIS and World Sports Exchange are a ridiculous 2-1. If Pinnacle and TheGreek get around to posting odds, it will be closer to 4-1, I think.

--Dunbar

slotdirt · #14 03-30-2008, 06:21 PM

I don't have the time to go through the charts to verify, but the favorites at post time have done at least reasonably well the last dozen years or so at the Derby. Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Barbaro come to mind (though Sweetnorthernsaint may have been the betting favorite, I really can't recall).

Danzig · #15 03-30-2008, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't have the time to go through the charts to verify, but the favorites at post time have done at least reasonably well the last dozen years or so at the Derby. Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Barbaro come to mind (though Sweetnorthernsaint may have been the betting favorite, I really can't recall).

i do believe SNS was the favorite.

Cajungator26 · #16 03-30-2008, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i do believe SNS was the favorite.

Yep, he was the final favorite, although Brother Derek was the M/L fave. The Cliff's Edge was the M/L favorite for 2004 at 4-1, although Smarty did go off as the favorite when the gates opened.

Scav · #17 03-30-2008, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I could have had 7-1 at CRIS immediately after the race yesterday, but decided against it. First, I wasn't sure that was good enough; second, I already have a good chunk of change on All Others from Pool 1 of the Ky Derby Future Wager, and a smaller amount on All Others from Pool 2.

Odds now at both CRIS and World Sports Exchange are a ridiculous 2-1. If Pinnacle and TheGreek get around to posting odds, it will be closer to 4-1, I think.

--Dunbar

I have heard that Pinnacle is shuting out horse people now, especially the winners......

Dunbar · #18 03-30-2008, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I have heard that Pinnacle is shuting out horse people now, especially the winners......

They automatically closed my account when they stopped taking US customers.

They dropped their WPS rebate from 7% to 5% in November. So they were probably not doing great with that.

--Dunbar