Derby Post Position Selection Order

[Kasept]

1 Visionaire
2 Big Truck
3 Col. John
4 Z Fortune
5 Pyro

6 Eight Belles
7 Anak Nakal
8 Court Vision
9 Z Humor
10 Monba

11 Smooth Air
12 Adriano
13 Bob Black Jack
14 Denis of Cork
15 Cowboy Cal

16 Big Brown
17 Tale of Ekati
18 Cool Coal Man
19 Recapturetheglory
20 Gayego

[hockey2315]

Could make the pace scenario interesting. . . I hope Cool Coal Man ends up getting the rail with that pick. . .

[philcski]

Ouch for Gayego and Recapturetheglory. Will likely have to show speed from the outside.

My predictions on what they end up taking:

1 Visionaire 5
2 Big Truck 6
3 Col. John 7
4 Z Fortune 8
5 Pyro 4
6 Eight Belles 9
7 Anak Nakal 10
8 Court Vision 11
9 Z Humor 12
10 Monba 13
11 Smooth Air 3
12 Adriano 14
13 Bob Black Jack 15
14 Denis of Cork 16

15 Cowboy Cal 17
16 Big Brown 2
17 Tale of Ekati 18
18 Cool Coal Man 1
19 Recapturetheglory 19
20 Gayego 20

[Scav]

a REAL interesting pace scenerio, all the horses I like got good draws as far as choices. Colonel John should have zero excuses now. Brown will probably get 1,2,19,20

AUTO TOSS, ADIOS BIG BROWN!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

a REAL interesting pace scenerio, all the horses I like got good draws as far as choices. Colonel John should have zero excuses now. Brown will probably get 1,2,19,20

AUTO TOSS, ADIOS BIG BROWN!!

He'll get 2 or 18.

[lemoncrush]

Sad that Gayego and Recapture the Glory received the last draws.
I would have tossed those 2 regardless of post position.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Sad that Gayego and Recapture the Glory received the last draws.
I would have tossed those 2 regardless of post position.

Right on the money Lemon.

[jcs11204]

court vision
cowboy cal

Should go by earnings. This is BS.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Sad that Gayego and Recapture the Glory received the last draws.
I would have tossed those 2 regardless of post position.

If Recapturetheglory Fails it want be the post, just not fast enough to clear and hold off the charge. Extreme outside would actualy help his chances.

[docicu3]

So from the draw Eight Bells seems to have no excuse not to run in the Derby at this point if they were ever serious

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Scav

a REAL interesting pace scenerio, all the horses I like got good draws as far as choices. Colonel John should have zero excuses now. Brown will probably get 1,2,19,20

AUTO TOSS, ADIOS BIG BROWN!!

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

Have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Scav

I know that this is a foreign concept for people that don't analyze things, but have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

I love the hype this horse is getting...he beat El Gato Malaise by a half a length and the super offspring of Stormy Jack, Bob's Black Jack who's best race is probably a mile, by half a length at a mile and an 1/8th. Whoooppiiee!! He's never Beyered 100. Actually, he's barely shaded 5 lengths slower than 100. And, he's never run on dirt in the afternoon.

This folks is your second choice. And with the PP draw,and some more hype, could be the favorite.

RED - EDIT

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by Scav

Have you seen some of the performances from California (more specifically Santa Anita) when they have moved to cooked up dirt tracks (Oaklawn specifically).....

I'm betting on that angle right there. You realize that these synthetics put a TON of fitness into these horses, and even running on a deep dirt surface, which Churchill certainly isn't, is like running on concrete.

Maybe people will realize this year when synethics run 1-2-3....

BBJ won't have much dirt in his face cuz he'll be in front in the stretch and at the wire. So there.

And BBJ will be just off the lead until he muds em or just plain blows em away.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

How about he's never even come close to running a race fast enough to win the Derby? How about he's never had dirt kicked in his face?

Maybe not dirt..but let's not have a false premiss that there was zero kickback at DMR, SA & HOL . In fact,many of the jocks were complaining at SA & DMR about the kickback. Can't see that this is a major factor..albeit it does make for a good excuse after the race.

[Travis Stone]

Only during Derby week is there a topic about order of post position selection.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Only during Derby week is there a topic about order of post position selection.

...and it's all coming too fast for me. Shouldn't they have another step in this post position process, like the owners do rock, paper, scizzors to determine just which order they then determine the post positions?

Last week I think I posted something to the effect of posts 15/16 winning 5 of the last 8 Derbies in which there were 16 or more runners

That's the kind of stat that Pletcher must have been looking at

[sumitas]

I'm lookin that BBJ is x3 Nearctic (his bottom line family). He is x4 to Sister Sarah (his bottom line family) and x10 to Scapa Flow, the darling of stamina. I repeat, BBJ can get the distance based on his pedigree. The doseage just shows his great speed from his sire line. Stamina from his family which is supported throughout the pedigree.

Whether the breeders viewed the mating in this detail, who knows ? Maybe they decided to just cross the In Reality line with the Mr Prospector line. But they got a helluva pedigree nonetheless.

I would like to see him outside BB at the post tho. I'd like to see BBJ just off the lead until the final turn. Which is gonna be tough to do cuz BB draws after BBJ. I'm sure the connections of both a casting wary eyes at each other. Any horse on the lead will be a tough go. I think BBJ on the lead can finish itm. Just off the lead he can win.