5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[ateamstupid]

10th (6:04) Kentucky Derby (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 Cool Coal Man Leparoux J R Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 20-1
2 Tale of Ekati Coa E M Tagg Barclay 126 LA 15-1
3 Anak Nakal Bejarano R Zito Nicholas P 126 Blk-Off LA 30-1
4 Court Vision Gomez G K Mott William I 126 Blk-On LA 20-1
5 Eight Belles Saez G Jones J Larry 121 LA 20-1
6 Z Fortune Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 15-1
7 Big Truck Castellano J J Tagg Barclay 126 LA 50-1
8 Visionaire Lezcano J Matz Michael R 126 LA 20-1
9 Pyro Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 126 LA 6-1
10 Colonel John Nakatani C S Harty Eoin 126 L 4-1
11 Z Humor Douglas R R Mott William I 126 Blk-Off LA 30-1
12 Smooth Air Cruz M R Stutts Bennie F Jr 126 L 20-1
13 Bob Black Jack Migliore R Kasparoff James M 126 Blk-On L 20-1
14 Monba Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 15-1
15 Adriano Prado E S Motion H Graham 126 LA 30-1
16 Denis of Cork Borel C H Carroll David 126 LA 20-1
17 Cowboy Cal Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
18 Recapturetheglory Baird E T Roussel, III Louie J 126 LA 20-1
19 Gayego Smith M E Lobo Paulo H 126 LA 15-1
20 Big Brown Desormeaux K J Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 3-1

[SniperSB23]

10/9/12/3

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

10/9/12/3

From a Colonel John basher to a touter?!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

From a Colonel John basher to a touter?!

I needed him to prove he could handle the dirt. He erased those doubts, got a nice draw, there are Pyro rumors floating around, and Dutrow is an ass and suddenly he's my top choice.

[XIIPointStables]

MLs?

[NoLuvForPletch]

He wants to prove to the world that he can win from the 20 hole. Good Luck. Why didn't he take the 2 hole? He's a moron. As soon as the 20 is in they spring the latch. There is a real good chance he'll miss the break from out there and then he's phucked.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

He wants to prove to the world that he can win from the 20 hole. Good Luck. Why didn't he take the 2 hole? He's a moron. As soon as the 20 is in they spring the latch. There is a real good chance he'll miss the break from out there and then he's phucked.

If you're worried about a horse whose inexperience could cost him when he gets rattled and bumped on the inside, or if you have a big, long-striding horse who needs a clear path to get his best stride, makes perfect sense. I would've tried to beat BB anyway, but I would have left him completely out of my trifectas if he was on the inside.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

He wants to prove to the world that he can win from the 20 hole. Good Luck. Why didn't he take the 2 hole? He's a moron. As soon as the 20 is in they spring the latch. There is a real good chance he'll miss the break from out there and then he's phucked.

I wondered the same thing, but in a different way. Why not take the 2? If you break like a shot, wouldn't it be better to be in the 2 hole than have to waste all that time getting over and potentially have to use him even more?

Assuming that you're basically screwed if you blow the break, why not roll the dice with the 2 and potentially fall into a dream trip?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wondered the same thing, but in a different way. Why not take the 2? If you break like a shot, wouldn't it be better to be in the 2 hole than have to waste all that time getting over and potentially have to use him even more?

Assuming that you're basically screwed if you blow the break, why not roll the dice with the 2 and potentially fall into a dream trip?

He could have had an Evening Attire like break and still been ahead of the horses in the 3 and 4 holes in a few strides. I could understand skipping the 2slot if there was some speed right there that truly could screw him if he missed the break but there wasn't.

[Scav]

BOOGADEE BOOGADEE BOO

God I love the chaos.

[asudevil]

4/10
Supers:
10/all/4/all
10/all/all/4

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He could have had an Evening Attire like break and still been ahead of the horses in the 3 and 4 holes in a few strides. I could understand skipping the 2slot if there was some speed right there that truly could screw him if he missed the break but there wasn't.

Also, seems like drawing closely to the outside of Cowboy Cal, Recapture', Gayego, and Bob Black Jack could pose some problems for him getting the kind of sweet spot that makes a win from the 20 a real possibility.

I dunno, time will tell. I think he might just be that good, but I'd certainly be loads happier if he were in the 2.

[Cajungator26]

10/16/9/4

[ateamstupid]

Stammerin' Stank just picked Colonel John.

[Scav]

The undercard is LOADED with talent, short fields though...Overnights are up on Churchilldowns.com which is where i got it from

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stammerin' Stank just picked Colonel John.

God dammit. I hate that shiat.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stammerin' Stank just picked Colonel John.

.....squirel will get a nut every once in a while......

[tjfla]

Guys the HAMMER likes the #10 so know what that means


NO way Col John Wins!!!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Kentucky Derby (G1)

$2,000,000, 1 1/4 miles, 3 yo, Churchill Downs, May 3

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 30-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 20-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 20-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 50-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 20-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 30-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 20-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 15-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 20-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 15-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 3-1

Box 2,3,9,10,16 = $20 per $1

Key Denis of Cork in all three spots in the tri with....

1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,13 = $72 per $1 key, Total = $216 per $1....

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Box 2,3,9,10,16 = $20 per $1

Key Denis of Cork in all three spots in the tri with....

1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,13 = $72 per $1 key, Total = $216 per $1....

I like the box, not as sure on keying Denis. I think I'm going to look for a logical horse on top and spread more in the second and third spots. Working around:

9,10/2,3,5,9,10,12/2,3,5,6,9,10,12,16

May play it also with Pyro/Colonel John in the second spot or just play the exacta heavier with them running second. Will probably cover a few more combos where both of them are in the top three as well.