Eight Belles form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What happened to her was awful and sad.

What probably will go ignored though is that she was one of the all-time greatest form reversals in horse racing history.

The very first race ever run over the synthetic Tapeta surface was the 100K Inaugural Stakes at Presque Isle Downs. The favorite was the 3-year-old filly Cantrel - who was a mind-boggling 40-to-50 point form reversal.



Obviously you noticed a trainer change and a long layoff before the insane spike in form. Cantrel, with her walking time bomb form, broke down in the race and had to be destroyed.

Unlike Cantrel, Eight Belles mind-boggling form reversal came without either a trainer change or a layoff.



Something happened in the four week span between December 23rd and Jan 21st that turned a very mediocre filly with 5 career starts into suddenly the best 3yo filly in an above average crop in almost an instant.

Her 15 length allowance win at FG was probably the single most puzzling race I've ever come across when doing analytical work on a card.

I was trying to build a case for King's Silver Son in the Rebal Stakes at Oaklawn. He was coming off of a win at FG in which he only recieved an 80 Beyer in his last start.

As I studied the FG races that day, I almost fell on the floor when I saw that an N2L race for fillies went 20 points faster than KSS did in a similarly paced route on the same card. All that popped into my head was 'did this filly I never head of have the greatest trip of all-time - or is she some lightly raced phenom cut out to be the next Inside Information - or is a horse I'm trying to make a case for in a Graded Stake really a routine 5K claimer?'

I compared her trip to KSS's - shockingly, if anyting, KSS's was a touch easier.

Now came the real exciting part - you get feeling like you do before opening up a gift as you get ready to pull up her form and watch her previous race.

But, it wasn't a race - it was five of them! This wasn't some nice debut winner who took care of 'biz in her debut and really put it all together in a big way next out. This was a filly with a very medicore form. When I watched her first five races, I discovered not only was her form mediocre - but so was her talent.

In case anyone didn't know - KSS, off his 80 Beyer, was 2nd in the Rebel next out. He wasn't quite a 5K claimer after all.

Eight Belles repeated her magical performance four more times before breaking both front ankles while galloping a quarter mile after the wire. An odd way to go for a filly with an odd form.

[ArlJim78]

I don't know if you look at the sheets, but it really stands out on there as well. from her debut to the 12/23 race she gradually went from a 14 to a 7.

then she reeled off 5 straight 1's or 0's if you include the derby.

usually you don't see this type of disjointed pattern. i'd love to know what happened, what change precipitated the improvement.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't know if you look at the sheets, but it really stands out on there as well. from her debut to the 12/23 race she gradually went from a 14 to a 7.

then she reeled off 5 straight 1's or 0's if you include the derby.

usually you don't see this type of disjointed pattern. i'd love to know what happened, what change precipitated the improvement.

the light went on after the 2nd place finish and she understood what they wanted her to do. after that Eight Belles "wanted" to be a champion.

[horseofcourse]

I think part of it was her huge size and she took awhile to fill out and grow up. If I remember watching her early races...she never changed leads at all in the stretch...staying on her left lead. (I could be wrong about that but I'm pretty sure it was her.). Watching all her races in 2008, she changed to her right lead right on cue in the stretch. I don't know what happened November 30th, but if you throw out that race, she was also progressing upward steadily her two year old season. I don't think it's magic as it is well documented she was a 17 hand filly...quite large. And if you toss that 11/30 race she was progressing at 2 as well.

[packerbacker7964]

It looks good to me you just don't see it every day.

Sprint she ran a 53
2nd time out 1st time routing 67
3rd time out 2nd time routing 10 length win
4th time out 1st time Alw try 7th place
5th time out 2nd time Alw 2nd place
6th time out Alw no winners since Big Time Score
So almost every race she was getting better learning each time out what was going on around her. Some horses are made into Champion's other are born that way. Ether way she dies way to soon for anyones liking. She'll go down as one of the greatest Filly's to race in a long time.

[cmorioles]

DrugS,

Didn't you post this earlier? I would swear I've read this exact same thing before somewhere. Deja vu?

I actually gave her a 105 speed figure on turn around day.

[ninetoone]

interesting stuff.