Arlington Thurs 5-8 PK4

[ArlJim78]

I'll start off the season slowly until i can get a better feel.
so far Catalano hitting at 75% (8 6-1-1). i'm sure it's temporary and it won't be long until he falls back into his customary range of 40-45%.

early pick 4

race 2
6-Tattooed Lady, single on small ticket but will spread here. won $3.40
4- Book the Bullet
1-Case Chaser
5- Charming Bay

race 3
8-Donali
4-Put Back The Jewell won 8.20

race 4
8- Windy City Gal
5-Florence Hotel

race 5
6-Faith Of Angels 2nd
8-Spanish Surprise
2-Eternal Sunshine
4-Wanna Secret
3- I'majonietoo

small ticket
6/48/58/23468 $20

large ticket
1456/48/58/23468 $80

[miraja2]

Jim, does the #1 (Honey's Humor) scare you at all in the third?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Jim, does the #1 (Honey's Humor) scare you at all in the third?

no, I went against Honeys Humor because she runs her race early and can't seem to find much late, especially in routes.
the one I really like there is Donali with BLK OFF and the good poly race here last summer.

[Scav]

Actually be up there today so who know what will happen with this

2: 6
3: 4
4: 2,5
5: 1,3,4,6,11

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'll start off the season slowly until i can get a better feel.
so far Catalano hitting at 75% (8 6-1-1). i'm sure it's temporary and it won't be long until he falls back into his customary range of 40-45%.

early pick 4

race 2
6-Tattooed Lady, single on small ticket but will spread here.
4- Book the Bullet
1-Case Chaser
5- Charming Bay

race 3
8-Donali
4-Put It Back

race 4
8- Windy City Gal
5-Florence Hotel

race 5
6-Faith Of Angels
8-Spanish Surprise
2-Eternal Sunshine
4-Wanna Secret
3- I'majonietoo

small ticket
6/48/58/23468 $20

large ticket
1456/48/58/23468 $80

Halo and Goodbye would scare me in the 4th, but I think it's a safe race to get out two or three deep, unless Ottos Lotto breaks through today. Always scary when a horse is running better than she ever has, but not as scary given that it's her 41st trip to post.

And Eternal Sunshine is a bit scary in the 5th, if for no reason than the crazy good record over Polytrack. It might do the trick.

I think you've got a solid ticket though, because you've got to cut somewhere, or you're going to go crazy.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Halo and Goodbye would scare me in the 4th, but I think it's a safe race to get out two or three deep, unless Ottos Lotto breaks through today. Always scary when a horse is running better than she ever has, but not as scary given that it's her 41st trip to post.

And Eternal Sunshine is a bit scary in the 5th, if for no reason than the crazy good record over Polytrack. It might do the trick.

I think you've got a solid ticket though, because you've got to cut somewhere, or you're going to go crazy.

playing kinda tight in the early stages of the meet, until I get a better fix on how things are playing. i agree on Halo and Goodbye, that probably would have been my next add in. also yeah, although I chose to go wide in the fifth, Eternal Sunshine I think is a very playable price horse, with all wins on synthetic!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

playing kinda tight in the early stages of the meet, until I get a better fix on how things are playing. i agree on Halo and Goodbye, that probably would have been my next add in. also yeah, although I chose to go wide in the fifth, Eternal Sunshine I think is a very playable price horse, with all wins on synthetic!

I am willing to bet that you'll survive that leg with just the two of them in the maiden race, though. Look out though, Mink Creek might surprise you....by beating a horse.

Those were two of the races I wrote commentary for, and the fifth looks like a total crapshoot. It seems like most of the real threats are coming from off the pace, and that might not be the best way to win after the rains yesterday. That might play to Faith of Angels, or god forbid, Wonderbred.

The late 4 starts off in the 6th, which is also a goofy race, though I think Citi Smoke is your winner. While the races are all pretty cheap today, they make for a hell of a time putting together multi-race wagers since there are several that look WIDE open.

And you're right, the early meet is tough, because a good number of these horses are threats based on their Poly performance from last summer, but they've looked like crap since. Are they going backwards, or do they just love the Poly? Case Chaser was a bit of a monster here last year....

Confusing.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Halo and Goodbye would scare me in the 4th, but I think it's a safe race to get out two or three deep, unless Ottos Lotto breaks through today. Always scary when a horse is running better than she ever has, but not as scary given that it's her 41st trip to post.

And Eternal Sunshine is a bit scary in the 5th, if for no reason than the crazy good record over Polytrack. It might do the trick.

I think you've got a solid ticket though, because you've got to cut somewhere, or you're going to go crazy.

Good call.