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#1
05-22-2008, 08:40 AM
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5/22: Arlington (6th-9th)
Was taken out of late Belmont P4 immediately Wednesday with Clement's March to Victory, and scuffled around until hitting major paydirt with the nightcap trifecta. Tom Bush's Imperial River ($20.00) was the 8-1 'Best Value' player and my 2nd tab, along with 'Most Likely' obvious favorite Rockon Rockoff (9-5), must-include 'Next Best' ML second choice Dos Hombres (7-2) and 15-1 'Exotics Add' Challenger's Song.
Imperial River screamed "Play Me"... Bush has been red hot already at the young Belmont meet winning with 4 of his first 11 starters, and here he was dropping the gelding from MSW company to Maiden Claiming, (a move that DRF told you works 28% of the time for a $3.51 ROI). He also tabbed Cornelio Velasquez for the ride (2/5 at meet-$5.40; 25% L2Y-$2.64), who was an upgrade from Carol Cedeno. Blinkers were going on, and while they aren't Bush's best angle, they had to sharpen this son of Hussonet who had failed to really run in his first 2 career starts. But there was something else, and it only showed up modestly as a DRF trainer statistic: 2nd off layoff. DRF showed you that Bush was 15% second off breaks of 45-180 days for a $1.60 ROI. Thoro-Graph's Trainer Profile stats showed that in fact Bush was running 26.3% wins/51% ITM-2nd/layoffs (of any kind) with a $2.60 ROI. That's a big difference and was instrumental in keying the 9-1 overlay 1st and 2nd with the other three choices. The triple returned $490.00 on the $24 wager when Imperial River won with Dos Hombres (4.00-1) second and Challenger's Song ($15.10) third. Hope you did well.. Some OK racing at Chicago today with the late Quad comprised of 4 straight mile events.. ARLINGTON PARK 6th: IL-bred MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Pullmanite 2-1 7th Best Value: #9 Star Victor 4-1 5th Next Best: #2 Flyabovetherest 3-1 4th Exotics Add: #7 Iron Vow 6-1 WON 7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 O'Connell's 3-1 8th Best Value: #9 SCR Next Best: #7 Florida Jack Pot 5-2 4th Exotics Add: #5 Very Capo 6-1 3rd 8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1e SCR (#1a DOES go.. Info was wrong on AP website) 3rd Best Value: #5 Wine and Dyne 4-1 WON Next Best: #2 SCR 9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super) Don't trust the favorite Winner's Story here at all.. Most Likely: #8 SCR Best Value: #2 Molander 8-1 6th Next Best: #6 Beaufort 4-1 WON Exotics Add: #3 Lord Vader 9-2 3rd Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-23-2008 at 06:01 AM. 
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#2
05-22-2008, 10:03 AM
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and the funny thing is that at saratoga this guy gets overlooked every year....
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#3
05-22-2008, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
And god, I hate big chalk, but Dazzle Darlin looked AWESOME here opening day.
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#5
05-22-2008, 03:06 PM
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Card got chopped up badly with SCR.. There's conflicting info on whether the 1a is scratched (as well as the 1) in the 8th...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-22-2008, 03:08 PM
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Quote:
 I am playing Beneficary if I can get 4/5 and then maybe that Hello Sailor horse, and that is it.... ALL IN ON Hacker Craft tomorrow
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