If anyone knows off the top of their head....

[justindew]

...or if anyone can research this since I am too lazy and don't know where to find the info...

....is there any historical "requirement" to have a prior Grade I win in the Belmont Stakes? I know Birdstone was the only runner besides Smarty Jones in 2004 to have a GI win. And Lemon Drop Kid was I think only one of two besides Charismatic in 1999. Both paid big.

Jazil didn't have one. Neither did Sarava or Commendable. But I'm not sure if anyone other than War Emblem had a GI win in any of those years. I guess Bob and John did if the Wood was a GI then. Wasn't it a Grade II for a while?

Anyway, if anyone has the info I would be curious to see it. Looks like it will just be BB and Tale of Ekati this year.

[slotdirt]

Let me really quickly run through the past 140 years of Belmont winners pp's I keep handy just for questions like these...

[hockey2315]

www.pedigreequery.com

[ateamstupid]

By golly, I think you're on to nothing!

By the way, the Wood has been a G-I for a while now.

[hi_im_god]

outside of 2yo stakes (someone else will need to look those up) you only have the fl derby, wood, blue grass, kentucky derby, and preakness available to provide grade 1 winner's this year.

that's a pretty small pool to be providing a "winner's" condition. i doubt there's been much of a trend there.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

outside of 2yo stakes (someone else wiill need to look those up) you only have the fl derby, wood, blue grass, kentucky derby, and preakness available to provide grade 1 winner's this year.

that's a pretty small pool to be providing a "winner's" condition. i doubt there's been much of a trend there.

Both Birdstone and Lemon Drop Kid's Grade I wins came at age 2.

When Tale of Ekati surges past Casino Drive in deep stretch to win, you can thank me.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Let me really quickly run through the past 140 years of Belmont winners pp's I keep handy just for questions like these...

Really? I don't need a PhD in The Kentucky Derby to know it had been twelve million years since a horse won the Derby without a start at 2. Or ten-thousand years since a horse won with only three career starts.

But if you don't know, you don't know.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Really? I don't need a PhD in The Kentucky Derby to know it had been twelve million years since a horse won the Derby without a start at 2. Or ten-thousand years since a horse won with only three career starts.

But if you don't know, you don't know.

Or three and a half weeks.

Neither here nor there, really.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Or three and a half weeks.

Neither here nor there, really.

HAD.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

...or if anyone can research this since I am too lazy and don't know where to find the info...

....is there any historical "requirement" to have a prior Grade I win in the Belmont Stakes? I know Birdstone was the only runner besides Smarty Jones in 2004 to have a GI win. And Lemon Drop Kid was I think only one of two besides Charismatic in 1999. Both paid big.

Jazil didn't have one. Neither did Sarava or Commendable. But I'm not sure if anyone other than War Emblem had a GI win in any of those years. I guess Bob and John did if the Wood was a GI then. Wasn't it a Grade II for a while?

Anyway, if anyone has the info I would be curious to see it. Looks like it will just be BB and Tale of Ekati this year.

didn't you really answer your own question? an angle, to really be considered one, shouldn't have very many exceptions, right?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Danzig

didn't you really answer your own question? an angle, to really be considered one, shouldn't have very many exceptions, right?

I just thought it was worth noting that some of the recent Belmont upsets were pulled off by horses that were the only/among the only Grade I winners in the field, besides the favorite. I'm a tad surprised that no one else finds this notworthy, but whatever.

And I never said it was an angle. I was wondering if someone with a larger frame of historical reference than I could either say "yes, I have noticed this", or "no, there is nothing there."

Also, in the cases of Jazil, Commendable, and Sarava, I don't think there were many horses in those respective fields with Grade I wins. So saying their wins were exceptions is not a fair characterization, in my opinion.

[hockey2315]

And there are only two in this field. . .

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by justindew

I just thought it was worth noting that some of the recent Belmont upsets were pulled off by horses that were the only/among the only Grade I winners in the field, besides the favorite. I'm a tad surprised that no one else finds this notworthy, but whatever.

What about Victory Gallop or Touch Gold or Colonial Affair? None were Grade 1 winners prior to the Belmont.

It's fairly obvious you are trying to make a case for Tale of Ekati, so why don't you just present your case for his chance instead of having us back into it for you?

And likening TOE with LDK and Birdstone off a single trait (a Grade 1 win) is not enough support the idea that TOE has what it takes to pull off the upset. Both LDK and Birdstone, unlike TOE, were in many ways coming into top form just prior to the Belmont. Lemon Drop Kid made a belated 3yo debut in a Gulfstream allowance, registering an easy win. His next start was the Blue Grass, were he made no impression. He started in the Derby anyways (as part of the mutual field), despite appearing on paper not to have the proper conditioning, promptly drew the extreme outside post, and proceeded to pick off tired horses to split the field in 9th. One could easily suggest in retrospect that the effort was a mere tune-up for later. LDK made another start before the Belmont, in the Peter Pan, and ran another "prep" like race, showing more speed than in the Derby, making a middle move, and then hanging the last bit to be a close 3rd to Jerkens' Best of Luck and the Phipps' Treasure Island. Whereas in the Derby, LDK had just 2 preps in him, he now had 4 leading into the Belmont (the same track where he had earned his Grade 1 at 2) where he put it all together. He held his form beyond that race, too, placing in the Jim Dandy and taking the Travers before hitting a brick wall versus his elders.

Birdstone, too, gave up a lot of short-term conditioning on the Derby trail, making a late February 3yo debut with an easy allowance win. At the time, he was the winterbook favorite for the Derby. His next start was a total disaster, coming in the Jim Beam, where the track was sealed in anticipation of a rainstorm. Birdstone ran so horrible that he went from Derby favorite to goat in one shot. He really dropped off the face of the Earth when Zito didnt bring him out for another prep prior to the Derby. In the Derby itself, Birdstone at 20-1 ran a race similar to LDK, picking off a few down the lane to split the field in 8th. Returning to the scene of his 2yo Grade 1 win (the Champagne), he fulfilled the promise many had anticipated just a few months before by taking the Belmont. Sparsely campaigned (odd for a Zito horse really), he returned to win the Travers.

TOE's road to the Derby, similarly light in races like the other two, seems to have been a bit of a rush job. Training poorly in FL, he was sent to the wolves first out in the LA Derby and got trounced. Shipped to NY, he came to hand quickly apparently, and was able to grind out the Wood win. The race, however, was unceremoniously bashed by just about everyone timewise and, visually, the horses were staggering to the wire. TOE came back in the Derby and ran a decent race to be 4th, but given his pedigree and the fact that he appeared to be in peak form at the time of the Derby (and doesn't now with that horrendous 1:18+ 6f drill), one can't really anticipate the upside the LDK or Birdstone had.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What about Victory Gallop or Touch Gold or Colonial Affair? None were Grade 1 winners prior to the Belmont.

It's fairly obvious you are trying to make a case for Tale of Ekati, so why don't you just present your case for his chance instead of having us back into it for you?

First of all, I don't like Tale of Ekati at all. You're wrong. I like Casino Drive as the most likely horse to upset Big Brown, and I have posted that here a billion times. However, I will probably use TOE on some tickets.

I think I worded my original question poorly, because this thread, as simple as I thought it was, seems to be confusing a lot of people. My fault. Let me try again....

Birdstone: Big-price upset winner of the Belmont. One of two horses in the field with a prior Grade I win (the other being the favorite).

Lemon Drop Kid: Big-price upset winner of the Belmont. One of three horses in the field with a prior Grade I win (the other being the favorite and a filly who had never run against boys).

Empire Maker: Non-favorite winner of the Belmont. One of two horses in the field with a prior Grade I win.

I was asking people if they knew of other similar situations. Yes, I am aware that it is possible to win the Belmont without a prior Grade I win. But I am curious to know if there have been other years where a big favorite was upset by a horse at a price who happened to be the only other Grade I winner in the field. And yes, I considered 2-1 a big price on Empire Maker.

[estreetposse]

You could have just researched this by now and found your answer...how in the world does KD website allow you to post your blog on their site with some of the drivel you spew on here?

[Handicappy]

I may not have written a response in the right place but Nolan's Cat was third in the Afleet Alex Belmont. The Lucas trained 3 year old was a maiden.

[Handicappy]

Don't have to research it. Lucas had a maiden run in the Belmont in 2005, Nolan's Cat. Finished third and I had the tri for something like $1300.