8/7: Saratoga (Day 14)

[Kasept]

Beautiful day at the ol' Spa Wednesday despite the threatening forecast, but a rough afternoon of wagering with little going my way. Potential for rain this afternoon, but best to simply ignore the hapless meteorologists. Hope you did OK Wednesday.. the Thursday card is hardly thrilling but features a tough to beat heavy favorite in the NYB feature that helps simplify the Late P4 and P6.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: A. P. Smithwick (Gr. II), 4+, 16.5f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 SALFORD CITY 7-2
Best Value: #3 Class Shadiow 12-1
Next Best: #10 Mixed Up 3-1
Super Add: #2 Guelph 4-1


2nd: HCP/S, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wild Geese 5-2
Best Value: #6 Japengo 5-1
Next Best: #5 Hesogoodwithmoney 2-1


3rd: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bridled Path 7-2
Best Value: #6 Amongooseamongus 8-1
Next Best: #4 Abby Morgan 5-2


4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Special Detail 12-1
Most Likely: #4 Quietly Bold 4-1
Next Best: #2 High Cry 5-2
Exotics Use: #1 Freedom Rings 4-1


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Why is there no Super here?

Most Likely: #9 Justwhistledixie 7-2
Best Value: #7 Spell Check 8-1
Next Best: #2 In Fine Fettle 10-1
Exotics Use: #1e Asmussen entry 5-1


<$100 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-6
3: 3-4-5-6
4: 4-6
5: 1-2-7-9

3x4x2x4 = $96


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF-LATE

Most Likely: #3 Lucky Will 5-1
Best Value: #2 Academy Royale 15-1
Next Best: #6 Youbethecan 3-1
Super Add: #5 SCR


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF-LATE

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #4 Mia 10-1
Next Best: #5 Zip by You 5-2
Super Add: #9 My Anna Rose 10-1


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Theartofcompromise 3-1
Best Value: #8 Top Leader 12-1
Next Best: #5 Trust Nobody 5-2
Super Add: #7 Fortune Faded 5-1


9th: Statue of Liberty, NYB-3yo F, 8.5f-IT (DD)

OFF THE TURF-LATE

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #2 Study Abroad 8-1
Next Best: #5 Western Slang 3-1


10th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

OFF THE TURF-LATE

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Silver Timber 5-2
Best Value: #3 Inside Info 15-1
Next Best: #10 Elusive Fox 4-1
Super Add: #4 Timberah 6-1


Good luck!
Steve

[CSC]

I agree with Steve/Maybe it's just me but I love these 2 yr old best stab Mdn Sp Wt races on turf, hopefully the rain will hold off. The 4th race has many 1st time starters with the Pletcher as probable favorite, but I'm going to try the Johar /Theatrical mare "Special Detail" to improve 2nd time out. Beaten 33 lengths in her debut, she should be a big price. Sire had one break their Mdn. at Ellis Park on turf recently.

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally I find the early Pick-4 play to be confusing. Why would you use four horses in the 3rd and only two in the 4th ( while leaving out the two likeliest winners )?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I find the early Pick-4 play to be confusing. Why would you use four horses in the 3rd and only two in the 4th ( while leaving out the two likeliest winners )?

Agree the 4th is a crapshoot.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally I find the early Pick-4 play to be confusing. Why would you use four horses in the 3rd and only two in the 4th ( while leaving out the two likeliest winners )?

but the late one should pay [pick 4] less than 100.00..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

but the late one should pay [pick 4] less than 100.00..

I'll take the over for a million.

One odds-on horse, combined with three very tricky races, doesn't rate to be that short.

[geeker2]

Race 10 #1 Silver Timber..

barn not having best meet...1st time claim....rail out..closer in full field..last win 1 year ago against similar.

Best against at probable low odds?