State by State

[SCUDSBROTHER]

270 electoral votes needed to win it.

These 4 states are close: CO(9) OH(20) VA(13) NV(5)



I'll call the other 46 (because I can easily handle such a task.)



Pro-Obama States (TOTAL: 264 electoral votes)

PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT...don't forget D.C.(3 ELEC. VOTES....BELIEVE IT OR NOT.)

Pro-McCain States (total:227 electoral votes...of course...the predominant thing in common is most of the states that had slavery ain't having OBAMA.)

AL AZ AR FL SD AK
GA NC ND ID IN KS MO
KY LA MS MT NE OK
SC TN UT WV WY TX



NH,AND NM could be soft,but I think Obama will take them. Florida could be soft, but I expect it's McCain's. If Florida or Ohio go for Obama, then JohnnyCat, you are dead. Funny how 2 states that are normally battleground states(Missouri,and Arkansas) aren't even close when a brotha is involved.

[Rileyoriley]

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

Keep dreaming on this one. I'm being objective. I have given Johnboy everything he has been close to taking. Like I said, NH, and possibly NM could slip away from Obama, but I think all the others I listed are gunna stay his. Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin etc...all gunna stay with him. Johnny n' Ranger Gal could take all 4 of the close ones I mentioned.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

where are you getting those numbers? i haven't seen any poll that has mccain that close. the idea mccain would be competitive in mass is off the rails.

mccain won't spend any more effort campaigning there than obama will in alaska. and for the same reason.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

Really, as a proud graduate of public high school in Salem Mass., the State University in Amherst and a life long Red Sox fan who grew up with but a few absolutes of life in Massachusetts........we have Democrats and Catholics in Boston and the surrounding Rte 128 area......JFK was both and although close to 50 years ago, I would be shocked if this Obama guy did not receive the electoral backing of the Commonwealth the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2008.

[hi_im_god]

that's probably a good snapshot if the vote was held today.

but it could change in 2 months. obama has a ground war where he just needs to grind it out and hope the economy and unpopular war carry him. but he can't make any mistakes.

i think the republican's nominated the only candidate they had that wouldn't get swamped. he's a moderate who has significant policy differences with the disastrously incompetent leadership in the white house.

it could still be a close republican win. but it could also be a close democratic win or a significant one. absent another terrorist attack there's no chance for a sweeping republican win.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

that's probably a good snapshot if the vote was held today.

but it could change in 2 months. obama has a ground war where he just needs to grind it out and hope the economy and unpopular war carry him. but he can't make any mistakes.

i think the republican's nominated the only candidate they had that wouldn't get swamped. he's a moderate who has significant policy differences with the disastrously incompetent leadership in the white house.

it could still be a close republican win. but it could also be a close democratic win or a significant one. absent another terrorist attack there's no chance for a sweeping republican win.

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think. Seriously, maybe these 11 are even close. FL ND NC MI NH MN CO OH NV VA NM

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think. Seriously, maybe these 11 are even close. FL ND NC MI NH MN CO OH NV VA NM

Wisconsin will be tougher than it looks

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Wisconsin will be tougher than it looks

Keary carried it. He is up by about 4%, and I doubt that goes all the way away, and he is probably even more popular in Madison than is showing up in polling. I think he has a solid 264 with
PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Keary carried it. He is up by about 4%, and I doubt that goes all the way away, and he is probably even more popular in Madison than is showing up in polling. I think he has a solid 264 with
PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

[ArlJim78]

McCain will win comfortably. i said it as soon as he won New Hampshire, and nothing has changed. in fact, the situation vastly improved for him this week.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

McCain will win comfortably. i said it as soon as he won New Hampshire, and nothing has changed. in fact, the situation vastly improved for him this week.

^
afterglow.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Jim, please UPS ground me an ounce of whatever you are smoking. Thanks in advance.

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

8/22 polling...hard to believe things have gotten worse for the RED team

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

Then you are risking a mediocre record.
I will assume you did not predict Ike, due to age concerns.
1960- Kennedy (good job it was close)
1964 -Johnson (landslide, very easy)
1968 -Nixon (easy with wallace pulling from Humphrey)
1972 - Nixon (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1976 - Carter (great job, very close)
1980 - Reagan (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1984 - Reagan (ditto)
1988 - Bush (ditto)
1992 - Clinton (you had to get this one also)
1996 - Clinton (ditto)
2000- Bush (good job)
2004 - Bush (not as good as 2000 but good)

So you are 3-1. Now you risk going 3-2 in elections that actually required
some thought. Dont do it man.



This could easily swing either way.

Look back at the electoral map.

Those states that are contested
could swing either way in the next two
months, very easily.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

what was the one you missed?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I laughed.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think.

you mean like, massachusetts?

i know the partisans have to paint everything in black and white and i understand the dems have to make this about another bush term.

but there's a reason mccain has been held at arms length by his own party for so long. he really has taken principled position's that have cost him politically.

he's likely the best candidate for president i will ever vote against.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

270 electoral votes needed to win it.

These 4 states are close: CO(9) OH(20) VA(13) NV(5)



I'll call the other 46 (because I can easily handle such a task.)



Pro-Obama States (TOTAL: 264 electoral votes)

PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT...don't forget D.C.(3 ELEC. VOTES....BELIEVE IT OR NOT.)

Pro-McCain States (total:227 electoral votes...of course...the predominant thing in common is most of the states that had slavery ain't having OBAMA.)

AL AZ AR FL SD AK
GA NC ND ID IN KS MO
KY LA MS MT NE OK
SC TN UT WV WY TX



NH,AND NM could be soft,but I think Obama will take them. Florida could be soft, but I expect it's McCain's. If Florida or Ohio go for Obama, then JohnnyCat, you are dead. Funny how 2 states that are normally battleground states(Missouri,and Arkansas) aren't even close when a brotha is involved.

still a lot of racism down here, but i doubt i'm telling anyone something they don't know. they painted the picture today in the paper that this state is solidly behind mccain/palin due to the vp pick, but i doubt that's the case. altho we are a mainly democratic state, there are many who won't vote for obama based on his race, and a lot of misinformation.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

still a lot of racism down here, but i doubt i'm telling anyone something they don't know. they painted the picture today in the paper that this state is solidly behind mccain/palin due to the vp pick, but i doubt that's the case. altho we are a mainly democratic state, there are many who won't vote for obama based on his race, and a lot of misinformation.

I think there is more racism down here than people realize. The rural areas of the Southeast are incredibly racist.

I agree, there are many that won't vote for Obama based on race....they just won't admit it publicly in the primary exit polls or any of the current polls. It is easy for a person to say they'd vote for him and race doesn't matter, but when they go behind that curtain, will they really pull the lever?