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#1
10-03-2008, 06:36 AM
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10/3: BEL ($540k C/O); KEE (P4); MED (Cup); HOO (Oaks)
While it was as impossible for me and anyone else to string together Thursday's $200k+ Belmont P6 carryover on one ticket, the winners of the first five were prominant in the plays and there was big money to be made. My man Sciacca kept 31-1 Mondo Diverso (my 3rd choice) in the off the turf 5th, and he was sharp after a series of frustrating performances to light the board for $64.50. The $101.00 exacta was the reward if you boxed the three horses I suggested. After Night in Tunisa and 'Mondo', gaudy P3's rolled when $23.60 All the Way Home won the 6th (4th-6th P3: $2,268.50); $5.20 Jet Setting the 7th (5th-7th P3: $1,582.00) and Formal Decree the 8th (6th-8th P3: $134.25).
For the nightcap, only 2 horses would have given the sextet to a lone lucky speelunker, and $29.00 lone speed candidate Je Suis Shiekh wasn't one of them. 540,000 Haywards to start today's pool, and expect pot to boil over towards $1.7 million today. Tough but fair sequence to navigate again today... Also have Keeneland opener, Meadowlands Cup and Hoosier Oaks to maje this Friday zing... Let's go! BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Phi Beta Mom 9-2 WON Best Value: #7 Keely's Black Magic 12-1 4th Next Best: #6 Lunar Beach 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Our Dreamette 10-1 5th 5th: OC/C, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Fascinating 6 horse race, and note all but Gold Trippi and Bribon are cross-entered in tonight's Eillo S. at Meadowlands... Favored #5 Bribon absolutely reacted physically to the enormous 118 Beyer performance June 25, or Ribaudo would have contested any of the big sprint stakes later in the summer with him. Returned to the worktab a full 2 months later, and while deserving of favoritism, I have my concerns about his soundness. After that, Japengo, Gold Trippi, Silver Stetson Man and even Vicarino have all run races capable of laurels here. Tough, tough call on P6 players. Most Likely: #5 Bribon 8-5 3rd Best Value: #4 Japengo 10-1 4th Next Best: #3 Gold Trippi 2-1 WON Exotics Use: #6 Silver Stetson Man 7-2 2nd 6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Here's another possible crippled favorite who will certainly take money and has the potential to bury you. #6 Leap Day has been gone 15 months, and while Hushion is profitable with big layoffs (17%, $3.49), examine this Barry Schwartz gelding's worktab: Between 8/2-8/23, Leap Day's drills were spaced 6, 8 and 7 days apart. After that? 16 and 13 days apart and now a race 13 days after his last sunrise semester. Not good. Obvious a likely winner if healthy, but I'd consider an alternate plan if I were you.. Most Likely: #8 Multidude 7-2 WON Best Value: #9 Bullstar 10-1 6th Next Best: #6 Leap Day 2-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 No Lien Here 3-1 3rd 7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1a (POE) Skipping Class 8-5 WON/9th Best Value: #4 Judge's Pride 12-1 7th Next Best: #11 Chit Chat Cat 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Maggie's Miracle 5-1 5th 8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f-T (DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Prince Rahy 5-1 2nd Most Likely: #4 Perfect Casting 5-2 WON Next Best: #3 Temecula Creek 6-2 7th Super Add: #7 Steppenwolfer 8-1 4th 9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super) I may be way off here, but I urge you to use your imagination structuring wagers with this group.. Most Likely: #1 Hangingonaprayer 4-1 4th Best Value: #5 Zip by You 8-1 5th Next Best: #6 Mia 15-1 9th Super Add: #4 Leader of the Lite 15-1 3rd <$200 P6 Play: 4: 2 5: 3-4-5-6 6: 6-8 7: 1-4-11 8: 4-6 9: 1-5 1x4x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 Pick 6 Paid $97.50 (5 OF 6) X 2 = $195.00 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 6-8 7: 1-4-11 8: 4-6 9: 1-2-4-5-6-10 2x3x2x6 = $72 KEENELAND POST-SCRATCHES 7th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #11 Dixieland Rocket 3-1 DH-2nd Best Value: #6 Whacka Whacka 15-1 DNF Next Best: #9 Rapid Mon 8-5 5th Exotics Use: #8 Curragh 5-1 6th 8th: 11th First Lady (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #1 PRECIOUS KITTEN 2-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Forever Together 6-1 WON Next Best: #2 Dreaming of Anna 3-1 6th Super Adds: #8 Stormy West 12-1 5th; #5 Bayou's Lassie 15-1 4th 9th: 57th Alcibiades (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Dream Empress 9-2 WON Most Likely: #1 Be Smart 6-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Mani Bhavan 7-5 7th Exotics Use: #7 Amanwella 8-1 5th $1 Exacta (6-1) Paid $14.60 10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi 5) Most Likely: #4 Myroslaw 3-1 WON Best Value: #9 Lardo 5-1 4th Next Best: #2 Discreet Street 8-1 10th Exotics Use: #11 Sean Lafitte 20-1 6th <$100 P4 Play: 7: 3-6-8-9-11-12 8: 1 9: 1-4-5-6-7 10: 2-4-9 6x1x5x3 = $90 HOOSIER PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 10th (7:00pm): 14th Indiana Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f (.50 Tri, .10 Super) Most Likely: #3 Sky Mom 5-2 4th Best Value: #4 Whirlie Bertie 8-1 7th Next Best: #9 Shining Image 10-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Skylighter 12-1 WON $2 Exacta (1-9) Paid $86.80 MEADOWLANDS PRE-SCRATCHES 8th (10:22pm): Meadowlands Cup H. (Gr. II), 3+, 9f (P3, .10 Super) Very good edition of this Swamp Standard that produced Volponi in advance of his '02 BC Classic stunner.. Great amount of speed signed on which makes Arson Squad, in ridiculously belated return to dirt, appealing.. Most Likely: #2 Timber Reserve 3-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Arson Squad 5-1 WON Next Best: #5 Past the Point 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #7 True Resurgence 8-1 7th Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-03-2008 at 11:00 PM. 
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#2
10-03-2008, 11:04 AM
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FAST/YIELDING
Turf races are ON Belmont SCR 3rd: 5 4th: 1-4-10 5th: 2 6th: 5 (Note 7 is a gelding) 7th: 2b-10-12 8th: 2-9-10-11 9th: 1a-2b-2x-9-11-12-13
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
10-03-2008, 11:36 AM
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KEENELAND
Scratches & Changes - Friday, October 03, 2008 Race Description 1 9th--Parade Critic--Jockey change to Edgar Paucar 2 #1--Panthera Tigre--Jockey change to Garrett Gomez #6--Thunder and Belle--Scratch 3 No changes 4 #4--Lucky Will--Jockey change to Garrett Gomez #6--Del Pilot--Jockey to be announced 5 No changes 6 #1--Dragum--Scratch #5--Mushka--Blinkers ON 7 #1--Kennys Prize--Jockey to be announced #2--Flag's Echo--Jockey to be announced #11--Dixieland Rocket--Blinkers ON 8 #7--Rosinka (IRE)--Scratch 9 #4--August Rush--Jockey change to John Velazquez 10 #1--Maloof Magic--Scratch #12--River's Honor--Jockey to be announced
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
10-03-2008, 12:05 PM
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Taking the approach that Shopit has been facing quite a bit better than these.
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#7
10-03-2008, 02:39 PM
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Hot f'n damn right!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
10-03-2008, 03:31 PM
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Thx phil/Kid.. The KMc had a sign on her saying "I can't lose"...
G/L rest of the way... Played a $6 dime supah here: 8 / 1, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
10-03-2008, 06:05 PM
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#13
10-03-2008, 06:21 PM
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Where did Steve Grabowski nail the 9th winner yesterday? I read his closer look, which is very good, but he also gave nine of the 12 horses a chance.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#14
10-03-2008, 06:26 PM
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The winner on the 9th was the 8 horse.. ..If you read his comments in DRF as I did and as I read it to Steve on ATR too...Steve G said, "Filly looks to be the speed of the bunch..." then his parting comment read, "they may find it tough to catch this one." To me this is an endorsement that we all missed. 
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#15
10-03-2008, 06:53 PM
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Hey, I like Steve, and respect his opinion, but the simple fact is he claimed in his Closer Look comments that nine of the 12 horses in the race were contendors and gave them a similar chance that he gave the winner. But, hey, if you bet them all to win you got 1:2 for your money.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#16
10-03-2008, 07:35 PM
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Hybrid Mode
