How does one approach this?

asudevil · #1 10-21-2008, 12:20 AM

OK...Horses are "dropping like flies." Some folks are not turned on by this weekend at all. Others are drooling all over their PP's. I respect everyone's opinion/arguments/constructive criticism. I am going to my first BC with an open mind and will save my judgement for Saturday night. Life and racing will continue on 10/26, but for now this is what's on most of our plates.

There are people on this board whose opinions I greatly respect. All the sarcasm and jabs aside (I.D. don't bash me on Saarland right now), there is incredible insight and knowledge on these pages.

Kasept, BTW, Hooves, A-Team, Cannon, others forgive me for not mentioning by (screen) name....I've started this thread in order to gather opinions on how to strategically approach these 2 days from a wagering perspective. I will be there, so that onto itself may differ from those playing at local tracks, OTB's, or at home. Is betting every race out of the question? Should I emphasize the turf races as the pro-ride does not have enough history? How should dollars be allocated for Fri vs. Sat? There are many other questions that I would love to see asked and debated.

This may not be the prettiest BC, new format and all, but these races always produce enormous prices. Just want to maximize my chances.

Good luck to all.

declansharbor · #2 10-21-2008, 12:23 AM

Do a pick 3 on friday. All/Zenyatta/All or Zenyatta/All/All or All/All/Zenyatta. Hope that bombs surround her.

SniperSB23 · #3 10-21-2008, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Do a pick 3 on friday. All/Zenyatta/All or Zenyatta/All/All or All/All/Zenyatta. Hope that bombs surround her.

And then be really pissed when Carriage Trail beats her.

hi_im_god · #4 10-21-2008, 12:40 AM

key intangeroo underneath in the fm sprint.

she'll be 15-1 and is at least 50/50 to hit the board.

asudevil · #5 10-21-2008, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

key intangeroo underneath in the fm sprint.

she'll be 15-1 and is at least 50/50 to hit the board.

The juvy filly turf....throw a dart.

jms62 · #6 10-21-2008, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

key intangeroo underneath in the fm sprint.

she'll be 15-1 and is at least 50/50 to hit the board.

Shhh... She may be at the top of the board.

miraja2 · #7 10-21-2008, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil

Should I emphasize the turf races as the pro-ride does not have enough history? How should dollars be allocated for Fri vs. Sat? There are many other questions that I would love to see asked and debated.

These are impossible questions for anybody but you to answer.
Are YOU better on turf or synthetics? Are there horses YOU really like in specific races? This is the only way to answer these questions. If you are planning on wagering on Friday and Saturday, you should probably look at all the races, and identify a couple of really good plays. You should put the most amount of money on those races. Playing every race is fine, but if you do so it is probably best to go with really small wagers on the races you are less confident in, and devote the majority of your bankroll to your top selections.

SniperSB23 · #8 10-21-2008, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

These are impossible questions for anybody but you to answer.
Are YOU better on turf or synthetics? Are there horses YOU really like in specific races? This is the only way to answer these questions. If you are planning on wagering on Friday and Saturday, you should probably look at all the races, and identify a couple of really good plays. You should put the most amount of money on those races. Playing every race is fine, but if you do so it is probably best to go with really small wagers on the races you are less confident in, and devote the majority of your bankroll to your top selections.

Yup, devoting a set amount to each race is a recipe for disaster.

ateamstupid · #9 10-21-2008, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Yup, devoting any real money to races between dirt and turf horses run over synthetic is a recipe for disaster.

FTFY.

SniperSB23 · #10 10-21-2008, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

FTFY.

Not so sure. I hate this BC from a fan perspective but from a wagering perspective I think there is a lot of opportunity. The dirt horses will all be overbet. A horse like Ventura will beat Indian Blessing at 2-4 times the odds. Carriage Trail will beat Ginger Punch, Music Note, and Cocoa Beach at longer odds. Lot of money to be won betting against the dirt horses that show no reason to like synthetics.

#11 10-21-2008, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not so sure. I hate this BC from a fan perspective but from a wagering perspective I think there is a lot of opportunity. The dirt horses will all be overbet. A horse like Ventura will beat Indian Blessing at 2-4 times the odds. Carriage Trail will beat Ginger Punch, Music Note, and Cocoa Beach at longer odds. Lot of money to be won betting against the dirt horses that show no reason to like synthetics.

I think Cocoa Beach is showing that she likes the Pro RIde

asudevil · #12 10-21-2008, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This is the best advice you're going to get I think.

What about more specifics?? The Guaranteed Pick 4's????

#13 10-21-2008, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil

OK...Horses are "dropping like flies." Some folks are not turned on by this weekend at all. Others are drooling all over their PP's. I respect everyone's opinion/arguments/constructive criticism. I am going to my first BC with an open mind and will save my judgement for Saturday night. Life and racing will continue on 10/26, but for now this is what's on most of our plates.

There are people on this board whose opinions I greatly respect. All the sarcasm and jabs aside (I.D. don't bash me on Saarland right now), there is incredible insight and knowledge on these pages.

Kasept, BTW, Hooves, A-Team, Cannon, others forgive me for not mentioning by (screen) name....I've started this thread in order to gather opinions on how to strategically approach these 2 days from a wagering perspective. I will be there, so that onto itself may differ from those playing at local tracks, OTB's, or at home. Is betting every race out of the question? Should I emphasize the turf races as the pro-ride does not have enough history? How should dollars be allocated for Fri vs. Sat? There are many other questions that I would love to see asked and debated.

This may not be the prettiest BC, new format and all, but these races always produce enormous prices. Just want to maximize my chances.

Good luck to all.

As for the How should dollars be allocated, i know for myself, i am only wagering a small amount on saturday, maybe a few pick 3 and both pick 4 and thats it, i will not go crazy because of the surface, rather just go make my bets and enjoy the races.
IMO Indian Blessing is as much of a lock as Zenyatta, so maybe start the day keying her and going 5-5 around her, 25 ticket for a buck, could offer some value, Zatfig will surly be bet, and you should get 8-5, maybe 2-1 on Indian Blessing

SniperSB23 · #14 10-21-2008, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan

As for the How should dollars be allocated, i know for myself, i am only wagering a small amount on saturday, maybe a few pick 3 and both pick 4 and thats it, i will not go crazy because of the surface, rather just go make my bets and enjoy the races.
IMO Indian Blessing is as much of a lock as Zenyatta, so maybe start the day keying her and going 5-5 around her, 25 ticket for a buck, could offer some value, Zatfig will surly be bet, and you should get 8-5, maybe 2-1 on Indian Blessing

Your best advice in this thread is to ignore everything you just read here.

#15 10-21-2008, 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Your best advice in this thread is to ignore everything you just read here.

Why, explain why to him... because i would rather single Indian Blessing at a decent price, rather then Zenyatta at 1-5 vs by far the best group of horses she has ever faced

onebadbeast · #16 10-21-2008, 03:40 AM

you and everyones mother will be doing an all/all/zenyata and it will pay about 5 cents.

#17 10-21-2008, 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onebadbeast

you and everyones mother will be doing an all/all/zenyata and it will pay about 5 cents.

MY POINT.
but a Indian Blessing-5-5 offers some value, for only 25

SniperSB23 · #18 10-22-2008, 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan

Why, explain why to him... because i would rather single Indian Blessing at a decent price, rather then Zenyatta at 1-5 vs by far the best group of horses she has ever faced

Mainly cause you never bet a favorite/all/all unless you are completely against the top choices in the other two legs. If you think the favorites have a chance then you'll lose money. If you want to be a chalk eater and bet a favorite then just throw all your money on it unless you are confident the chalk will lose in the other two legs in which case it shouldn't be an all bet, you should be dropping those favorites.