Aqueduct 11-26

[thunderdan09]

A series of filly races for most of the card on Wednesday and the early Pick 4 looks pretty tough at first glance. I think there is some definite value in some of these races.


RACE 4:
One horse to keep a real close eye on is #7 - SHESGONESHOPPING (Bocachica/Bazeos) is coming in from Suffolk after showing speed in her first start. At 15-1 on the morning line this horse could surprise some people tomorrow. Not saying to put her on top, but she does deserve some respect here.
On to the pick 4.........

BEGINNING IN RACE 2:

$1 Pick 4

$1 Pick 4
2: 2,4,6,8,9
3: 2,3,5,7
4: 1,4,6,7,12
5: 1,3

$200 Ticket

[blackthroatedwind]

Nothing personal, but Shesgoneshopping has next to no chance. Seriously.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nothing personal, but Shesgoneshopping has next to no chance. Seriously.

Yeah....but have you checked out his blog??

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not trying to be my usual wiseguy self here. That's a silly horse to suggest to people that they bet. He got drowned against serious jokes at Suffolk and, believe it or not, the 25 Beyer fig is probably too high.

[blackthroatedwind]

To make matters worse, he went five deep in that race and left out a very logical horse. Plus, he went five deep in the first leg, and assuming it stays on the turf ( iffy I guess ), he left out a very reasonable use. And, frankly, in the second leg, where there is the biggest favorite of the sequence, he used four and left out another real contender ( if you're against the favorite....which I have to assume he is to use that many ).

Whatever.

[thunderdan09]

Nothing against you or the selections you make daily in New York, but some of the horses that have been winning have no reasons to be bet on paper.

I have my opinion and you have yours, but I think the horse could surprise some people tomorrow. I am not saying to put it on top of your tickets just take note of what I said.

Some of your selections finish dead last and so do every other handicappers in the country.

You can criticize people's selections all you want, but if it happens to finish in the money take the heat for the comments you made.

I respect your work and I hope that one day I have the chance to do what you do everyday, but I have to start somewhere.

I don't keep tabs on New York efficiently enough to determine whether that horse has a chance or not, but if you say he doesn't, he probably doesn't.

Best of luck!

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nothing personal, but Shesgoneshopping has next to no chance. Seriously.

He's putting Shesgoneshopping as part of a 5 horse spread which to me it looks like he's fishing for a price in a ny bred maiden claimer.

The horse that he selects in race 5, Royal Spaulding is the head scratcher.

[thunderdan09]

Originally Posted by pick4

He's putting Shesgoneshopping as part of a 5 horse spread which to me it looks like he's fishing for a price in a ny bred maiden claimer.

The horse that he selects in race 5, Royal Spaulding is the head scratcher.

Royal Spauding is stepping up in class slightly, but showed speed 2nd off the layoff and couldn't hang on in the mud at the Meadowlands. This horse was trained by Barclay Tagg and has had success at the conditioned claiming ranks and heads back gets her 2nd dirt start at Aqueduct. I didn't see many races last weekend, but I heard your horse needed to be at or near the lead to win. This horse has a shot to be on the front end with the Tesher horse. I think she has a chance at a price.

Just to note, I will always try to fish for a price if I can't get a real grasp on a race. I have handicapping daily for a little over a year since graduating from the University of Minnesota. I am still learning the tricks of the trade and it is no offense to all of you who have more experience handicapping.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by thunderdan09

Royal Spauding is stepping up in class slightly, but showed speed 2nd off the layoff and couldn't hang on in the mud at the Meadowlands. This horse was trained by Barclay Tagg and has had success at the conditioned claiming ranks and heads back gets her 2nd dirt start at Aqueduct. I didn't see many races last weekend, but I heard your horse needed to be at or near the lead to win. This horse has a shot to be on the front end with the Tesher horse. I think she has a chance at a price.

Just to note, I will always try to fish for a price if I can't get a real grasp on a race. I have handicapping daily for a little over a year since graduating from the University of Minnesota. I am still learning the tricks of the trade and it is no offense to all of you who have more experience handicapping.

i
Good analysis. I'm biased since I've seen Royal Spauding burn money time after time. Perhaps dirt and a change of regime with the trainer changecould make the difference. To me this r5th race has Gary Contessa written all over it. But I'll include Bruce Levine and Bruce Browns horses in my multis.

[blackthroatedwind]

Two things...if you research the Suffolk horse on Formulator you might understand better where I'm coming from. I know it's a bad race today....but not bad enough for her.

On Royal Spaulding.....I picked her second. She might be an interesting longshot in that race.