Setting your own odds line???

[wac]

Im sorry if this is a stupid question but it has bothered me for awhile. When you are handicapping and you are assigning odds to the horses is there a total that you should have when you get done? Should they all add up to 100? i've read some things that say it should add up to 120. Excuse my ignorance on this.

[mes5107]

When forming your own odds line as a handicapping tool, your total percentages should add to 100%. If you have a horse that you think is 3-1, you're saying that the horse has a 25% chance of winning. Even money is 50%, 7-1 is 12.5% etc.

Morning lines typically add up to approx 120% to reflect takeout. I think that's where the confusion is.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by wac

Im sorry if this is a stupid question but it has bothered me for awhile. When you are handicapping and you are assigning odds to the horses is there a total that you should have when you get done? Should they all add up to 100? i've read some things that say it should add up to 120. Excuse my ignorance on this.

As mes says, if you are assigning probabilities as a handicapping tool, then those probabilities should add to 100%.

I have an Excel spreadsheet that at the click of a button will adjust a preliminary odds set up or down until the probabilities total 100%. I offered that program (for free) to Derby Trailers some time ago. Let me know if you'd like a copy.

--Dunbar

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

As mes says, if you are assigning probabilities as a handicapping tool, then those probabilities should add to 100%.

I have an Excel spreadsheet that at the click of a button will adjust a preliminary odds set up or down until the probabilities total 100%. I offered that program (for free) to Derby Trailers some time ago. Let me know if you'd like a copy.

--Dunbar

Anything to make my life easier is welcome. I just shot you a pm Dunbar.

Thanks for the offer.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Anything to make my life easier is welcome. I just shot you a pm Dunbar.

Thanks for the offer.

You're very welcome. I'll get the sheet out to you and a few others who pm'd me by late this afternoon.

--Dunbar

[dellinger63]

You need to go over 100% to account for track takeout.

http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:...lnk&cd=1&gl=us

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

You need to go over 100% to account for track takeout.

http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:...lnk&cd=1&gl=us

Not if you are trying to make a fair odds line as a handicapping tool. What you want is your best estimate of each horse's true chance of winning.

If you are trying to make a morning line, then, yes, you factor in the track take. My spreadsheet has that as an option, too. But the original poster was interested in a fair odds line.

--Dunbar