Tampa Tuesday....I Need Help

[thunderdan09]

I need help dwindling down my pick 4 ticket and can't decide on some of these horses. Hoping you Tampa experts can help me out.

Race 7: I have five horses left in right now.

#4 - Puts in Calls (10-1) Mike Allen/J.Radosevich..... Looks legit going turf to dirt and has one trip so far at Tampa. The trn/jock connections hit at 20% last year.

#5 - One Star Four Desi (12-1) W.Martinez/Potter.... looks sneaky here with Potter 1/3 to start the meet and some nice stats in sprints and with horses for the first time. Won by DQ two back so I am not quite sure what to expect from him.

#6 - Snuck in the Back (7-2) C.Montalvo/P.Sarabia...... Almost tossed this one, but the trainer has 5/9 ITM finishes so far this meet and the horse has been showing good early speed consistently. The class move is interesting. Open $8000 CLM to CLM12500n2L. I think I have to leave this one in.

#7 - Faraway Kingdom (2-1) Centeno/Slomkowski..... No questions if this horse is right, he is the one to beat. Can't leave out

#8 - Honor the Angels (12-1) Stanley/Bennett..... The horse stopped after 4 furlongs in his last start, but if it was a work for this race I think it is possible to come back and win here. Only win came at 4 1/2 furlongs, but conditioned 2nd off the layoff I like his chances at 12-1.

Race 8: Open CLM25000 1 mile 40 yd
I left three in this leg with a couple more with ????

#1/1A - Tour the Hive/D's Dessert (5-2) Feliciano/Feliciano..... More than likely only one of these goes with R.Feliciano entered on both. If D's Dessert is the one that gets in, I will use. Turf - Dirt 44% and 2/3 at the distance. The one downfall 0/7 @ Tampa.

#6 - Mr Easy E (6-1) Villa-Gomez/Girten-Drake..... The horse is 3/5 at the distance, but 0/3 at Tampa. Trainer stats all exceed 20%. Drops from Alw to claiming, but hasn't run for a tag in his last ten.

#8 - Right Flanker (4-1) L.A.Gonzalez/G.Bennett.......... 3 wins @ Tampa and 1/2 ITM at the distance. Ran at a slightly lower level back here in the spring, but was conistently in form all summer long at PID,Pnl, and Tdn. Nothing to brag about, but seems versatile enough to compete with these.

I left #5 off the ticket because he's 0/13 at the distance. I am ignoring his Tampa success and will use him in 2nd and 3rd on exotics.

I left a ? by #3 Can B Valid because Brnjas is 0/19 on 2-6 month layoffs. The horse looks like it belongs, but those ALW races and earnings are inflated by Woodbine's purse money.

Race 9: MSW 20k for fillies, 1 mile - TURF

I think I have covered the major contenders with these:

#2 - State Treasure (3-1) Velez Jr./Zweisler.....I thought about singling this horse after the competition he faced over the Summer and the way they bet him at The Spa and Belmont in his first two starts, but I am not sure he candle handle the mile turf race.

#4 - Lydia's Smile (4-1) Centeno/V.Oliver...... I would like to see this horse on the track, but it's the third leg of the pick 4. Wore fronts in his first start and struggled. Some of what he faced has won back, but I think the layoff will help this one and going back on the turf should bode some improvement. Not sure she is deserving after that last race though.

#9 - Perfect Find (6-1) J.Lopez/Ritchey...... This is the one that I think good give State Treasure fits on the front end. I don't know a whole lot about breeding so I don't know how Indian Charlie ran. I think this one has the pedigree to beet these. The trainer is 33% debuting 1mile+ and is 22% in MSW races. The works are slow, but I am not sure how much that means with Ritchey as a trainer.

#10 - Together Forever (10-1) L.A.Gonzalez/C.Stewart.....has worked okay over HuF (WTF) and the breeding is decent enough to run well the first time on the turf. I just don't know anything about the connections.

AE: #11 - JP's Hannah (8-1) Montalvo/Brendemuehl....... has the times in works to be competitive, but I know thing about this trainer either.

Race 10: CLM5000n2y for fillies - 6 1/2 furlongs - dirt

This race was the closest I came to a single in the entire card.

#8 - Deus Vult (7-2) F.T. Rodriguez/Scace......drops from open company where she showed speed and faded at Calder. Instead of facing nonwinners or open company she gets horses who haven't won 2 since 7-6-08. I think the drop and her success at Tampa can lead to victory (4/5 ITM)

#6 - Buckler (15-1) Villa-Gomez/Wismer..... kind of makes sense second off the layoff. If the track is wet I will definitely use, but the horse is conistently bet up at Penn and the trainer is 17% 2nd off the layoffs. Interesting longshot

#11 - Red Sherry (9-2) Allen Jr./G.R.Potter...........has had one trip over the track and made up 8 lengths with P.Lopez aboard. Has always been bet and was very consistent at Calder. The previous success at Tampa has to be noticed, but this horse is 10 years old. How much can she have left. The extra half furlong and getting a little closer after the a slow start could be the difference.




ANY OPINIONS ON HORSES I SHOULD ADD OR LEAVE OUT I WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU!!!!!!!

[Bigsmc]

I just started another thread. My thoughts on the Pick 4 are there.

GL

[Rudeboyelvis]

Nice work Dan. I am nobody to give advice so far this meet, but I would not discount Petesamassbred's success here in the 8th. Also you mentioned that there was one you would use if it is wet - No chance of rain till late Wednesday.

Cases can be made in here for a few of 'em in first leg, but in order to keep it reasonable I'm giving the 2 Faraway Kingdom 2-1 WON the nod. I want to go 4 deep the rest of the way and there is no reasonable explanation to expect Centeno not to get it done handily.

In the 8th I'm going with 8 Right Flanker 4-1 WON. G. Bennett gets them rolling well here and the sharp bullet work coming is always a great sign. Also using 2 Petesamassbred 8-1, 1 Tour the Hive 5-2, and 2 Maraquero 3-1

In the 9th I could almost single 3 State Treasure 3-1, but will spread with other logicals here; 5 Forrest Grinder 5-2 and 9 Perfect Find 6-1 (Tim Richey firsters ). Not at all sold on the 4 Lydia's Smile and am leaving off even with Centeno aboard, perhaps at my own peril, but the horse has been beaten a combined 35 lengths in two starts and not even Danny Boy is that good. The nice price in here is 10 Together Forever 10-1 - Belong to Me / Valid Appeal has a nice early turf ring to it and while the off site works are more window dressing than anything else, she's certainly bred to make it interesting. Will keep it at 4 in this race and move up the 11 and the 4 pending scratches.

The nightcap is a pathetic mish-mash of bad coconuts and really the only way for me to attack is to take the top 4 that look to be nearest to winning form - Going with 4 Gold Jolie 3-1, 3 Jenny Lu Hu 5-1, 8 Deus Vult 7-2, and 11 Red Sherry 9-2

So I'm 7//1,2,5,8//2,5,9,10//3,4,8,11 - 64.00

[GPK]

If you guys single State Treasure (ESPECIALLY YOU RUDE ) you're braver than me. I don't know what is deal is, but he can not seem to get out of his own way riding this meet. Just really horrible

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by GPK

If you guys single State Treasure (ESPECIALLY YOU RUDE ) you're braver than me. I don't know what is deal is, but he can not seem to get out of his own way riding this meet. Just really horrible

I said almost, Kev ...He's starting to smell the coffee a bit, have no fear... I love the Richey firster here as well

[GPK]

You see the horse in there that is gonna outrun her odds?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by GPK

You see the horse in there that is gonna outrun her odds?

{{{ cuing jeopardy theme, hold on}}}



7 Toss the Ring - My boy Bernie! A bit over his head here IMO but is an absolute must use in exotics and should fetch 10-1+









Right??!!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by GPK

You see the horse in there that is gonna outrun her odds?

Nevermind, scratch that.

I was thinking Siagon Tiger would, but was looking at something wrong.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

If you guys single State Treasure (ESPECIALLY YOU RUDE ) you're braver than me. I don't know what is deal is, but he can not seem to get out of his own way riding this meet. Just really horrible

I'm convinced HVG is riding worse. He nearing autotoss status with me.