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#1
01-13-2009, 06:39 AM
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Profile of a Derby Winner
Here's a pretty simple three step gauge to see if a 3-year-old is Ky Derby winner material or not.
All of the last 12 Ky Derby winners fit atleast one of the following 3 very exclusive categories. * Elite raw talent beyond 6fs in career start #2 : This is defined as being able to run a triple digit Beyer figure in the 2nd lifetime start.. and that race must come at a distance further than 6fs. Toughness factor: VERY few horses can manage to do this. Right now, I believe none from this year have. * Stamina rich closer with good raw talent in career start #2 and 2yo Grade 1 stake success from off the pace: This is defined as being able to run a Beyer in the 80's or better, beyond 6fs, in career start #2 - and run either a 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 2yo stake while using closing tactics later in the year. Toughness factor: Not a single horse in this crop managed to do this. * Coming into the Derby razor sharp: This is defined as being able to run a Beyer of 103 or better in the final Derby prep. Toughness factor: In the last two years - only one horse (Big Brown) came into the Derby with a last out Beyer higher than 103. In the last 4 years, only seven horses out of 80 Derby starters have come into the race with a last out Beyer higher than a 103. Basically, by putting a very precise focus on quality of performance in only career start #2 and the final prep for the Derby ... you're able to net all of the last 12 Derby winners while still being able to exclude a tremendously high portion of horses. * Beyer in final Derby prep for subsuquent Derby winners from '97 to '04: 2004: Smarty Jones 107 Beyer 2003: Funny Cide 110 Beyer 2002: War Emblem 112 Beyer 2001: Monarchos 103 Beyer 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus 111 Beyer 1999: Charismatic 108 Beyer 1998: Real Quiet 107 Beyer 1997: Silver Charm 110 Beyer As you can see, 8 straight years of 103 or better in the final prep - seven of which 107 or better. * Horses who ran a triple digit Beyer in career start #2 2008 winner: Big Brown: 106 Beyer: 8 furlongs 2006 winner: Barbaro: 102 Beyer: 8.5 furlongs 2004 winner: Smarty Jones: 105 Beyer: 7 furlongs 2003 winner: Funny Cide: 103 Beyer: 7 furlongs * Closers who ran Beyer in the 80's in career start #2 and had Grade 1 route success at age 2: 2007 winner: Street Sense. Won 2nd career start with 83 Beyer at 6.5f. Closed from way out of it to win Grade 1 BC Juvie with 108 Beyer. 2005 winner: Giacomo. Won 2nd career start handily by 10 lengths at 8.5fs with an 86 Beyer. Was 2nd beaten just a length in Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity while closing strong. It's certainly looking like a decent possibility that not a single horse in this years Derby will fit under any of the three gauges ... and if that happens ... just call them the worst crop ever again. Last edited by Kasept : 01-13-2009 at 07:57 AM. 
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#2
01-13-2009, 07:02 AM
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Good stuff..thnx for posting
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#3
01-13-2009, 07:15 AM
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Doug..
Very nice, and I love the extrapolation process. I used a similar backtracking method to formulate a Derby criteria that I used successfully for several years, with "Triple Digit Beyering" as a major element. Below is a piece written in 2005 using "100+ BSF by March 1" as an important benchmark. I haven't gone back to look at 2006-08, but as you point out, Barbaro, Street Sense and even Big Brown fit the bill.. FIGS ALREADY NARROWING DERBY POSSIBILITIES (2/23/05) On Feb. 18 Gary West, the excellent race writer for the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, wrote an edifying analysis of the Derby Trail scene. The veteran reporter opined that the early results of this year's Derby preps need to be taken with the proverbial "grain of salt" as historically, the winners of these events rarely have an impact on the Triple Crown. West correctly explained that the Sort It Out's, Closing Argument's and Scipion's, horses that have made splashes in the January and February preps, are rarely around in March and April, or most importantly, the first Saturday in May. He went on to say that Monarchos, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charismatic and Real Quiet, all were beaten at this time of year in their sophomore campaigns before going on to Derby glory. All true. But there seems to be a bigger problem facing this crop of three year olds that transcends the reality that early season winners are typically left behind when the real running starts in the Gr. I preps in late March and April. The fact is that this group of sophomores is unusually slow. Make that shockingly slow. Joe Cardello, the Daily Racing Form's Beyer Speed Figure analyst, offers a perspective of contenders' figs every year in the Derby edition of the paper. Last year, he projected the Derby's top 6 or 7 finishers based on the number of triple digit Beyers each of the entrants had run in their careers. Utilizing the Beyers as a measure of comparison, we looked at the past performances of every Triple Crown nominee from 2003-05. By this time in 2003, of the 454 Triple Crown nominees, 30 had already run a Beyer of 100 or more (6.6%). Eventual Derby winner Funny Cide had logged a 103 at 2; third place finisher Peace Rules a 102 and 4th place runner Atswhatimtalknbout a 105. Here's a list of the 2003 Derby runners that had posted triple digit numbers before March 1, 2003: 2003 Derby finish-Horse-100+ BSF as of 3/1/03:
In addition to these, here are other 'Class of '03' horses that didn't make the Derby but had earned consideration at two or went on to good things later in their careers:
Last year, as Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome (MRLS) began to show its effects on foal crops, claiming an estimated 500 foals, 434 colts and fillies were Triple Crown nominated and 19 had run a 100+ Beyer by March 1, 2004 (4.3%). The Derby trifecta of Smarty Jones (105), Lion Heart (103) and Imperialism (101) led the triple digit club by the time February ended. The 2004 Derby runners that earned 100+ Beyers by March 1, 2004:
These other '04 sophomores were 100+ runners:
Which brings us to 2005. This is the crop most severely affected by MRLS, having taken an estimated 1,200 foals in Spring 2002, and reducing the Triple Crown nominations to 358, its lowest total in 20 years. Of these horses, a scant 10 have recorded a BSF of 100 or more through February 19, 2005 (2.8%). While the tragedy in the Bluegrass three years ago can account for denying the crop a certain number of potentially outstanding progeny, the 2.8% represents a decrease of more than 60% in 100+ Beyer-earning runners in just two years. The 10 Crown-nominated 100+ BSF runners of the Class of '05 (Note that Going Wild has the distinction of being the first in the crop to 100+ Beyer in a route and a sprint): 2005 Triple Crown Nominees with 100+ BSF as of 2/23/05:
The facts from 2003 and 2004 project that at least one third of these horses will not only make the Derby field, but finish at the top of the chart. In fact, two years in a row, horses that had achieved a 100+ Beyer not only made the field and finished at the top of the chart, but were 4 of the first 5 finishers and among 5 of the top 7! Considering that Afleet Alex, Declan's Moon and Rockport Harbor all will be making just two starts before the Derby and have already banked graded stake earnings, it seems barring injury, they are certainties to make the field the first Saturday in May. Diligent Prospect is hurt, and the start of Roman Ruler's campaign continues to be delayed. Proud Accolade remains highly questionable as a hopeful due to distance limitations, and Sweet Catomine's Derby plans will not become clear until at least the Santa Anita Oaks. That leaves us with the three 2-prep candidates as well Going Wild, High Fly and Galloping Grocer. Based on what we have seen the last two years, it would appear that you can look to this group of six as the most serious candidates for a blanket of roses on May 7. Of these six, Rockport Harbor (Servis), Going Wild (Lukas) and High Fly (Zito) may have a decided edge as colts trained by conditioners that have already won a Derby. Given the reshuffled scheduling of several of the prep season's series of races, it's certainly possible that a speedy candidate emerges suddenly in the next two months as West suggests. But the trend of the last several years points more toward runners that have already demonstrated the ability to run fast by now. It happens that this group as a whole isn't running nearly as fast as three year olds of only one year ago. It could be that when it comes to picking this year's Derby winner, it will only make it that much easier to narrow the possibilities. Steve Byk is a part-time writer covering horseracing. His work has appeared on Bloodhorse.com.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-13-2009 at 07:58 AM.
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#4
01-13-2009, 08:18 AM
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I like it , Drugs. I used a similar line of reasoning for Derby 3 year olds :
{THE KENTUCKY DERBY HANDICAPPING BIBLE REQUIREMENTS Shall have won or been a close second (less than three lengths) in a mile and an eighth Graded stakes race Received a Beyer speed figure of 105+ in a route race Has not had longer than 4 weeks off Has had three( or more) races at three Raced as a 2 y.o. SECONDARY CONSIDERATIONS Has not been recently ill or having physical problems Runs on or close to the pace} I find that the addition of synthetic tracks has really screwed up my system, as the Beyers for synth are always lower than dirt, so can't be used with any confidence for inclusion or exclusion Last edited by Mike : 01-13-2009 at 08:32 AM.
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#5
01-13-2009, 08:29 AM
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I agree that the synthetics do tend to depress the figures somewhat.
Here's a trivia question ... in the last 6 years, a total of six different Derby starters ran a triple digit Beyer in career start #2 at a distance beyond 6 furlongs. As mentioned early, Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, and Funny Cide all did that and went on to win the Derby. Lion Heart did that and was 2nd to Smarty Jones in the Derby. Name the 6th horse.
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#6
01-13-2009, 08:33 AM
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Cowtown Cat? 
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#8
01-13-2009, 08:44 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Hybrid Mode
