Santa Anita - Friday 01/23 - Early Pick 4

[thunderdan09]

3 out of the first 4 are MSW races with some pretty decent horses running in them. I like the sequence a lot and am going to play this pick 4 tomorrow. Hoping for a couple prices. I like #1, not #1A in the first race a lot tomorrow. I think the #1A is going to be the rabbit in the race adding blinkers this time, and it should set-up nicely for #1 (Bred Empire Maker/Averti)

1: 1,2,4,5,6 (Not using #1A if that is the only entry in)
2: 2,5,6 (Not quite sure about #5, Potts off #6 and on #5, could mean nothing)
3: 1,2,5,6
4: 1,3,5,6

$240 Ticket

Budget Play

1: 1,2,4
2: 2,6
3: 1,2,6
4: 1,3,5,6

$72 Ticket

[Scav]

Originally Posted by thunderdan09

3 out of the first 4 are MSW races with some pretty decent horses running in them. I like the sequence a lot and am going to play this pick 4 tomorrow. Hoping for a couple prices. I like #1, not #1A in the first race a lot tomorrow. I think the #1A is going to be the rabbit in the race adding blinkers this time, and it should set-up nicely for #1 (Bred Empire Maker/Averti)

1: 1,2,4,5,6 (Not using #1A if that is the only entry in)
2: 2,5,6 (Not quite sure about #5, Potts off #6 and on #5, could mean nothing)
3: 1,2,5,6
4: 1,3,5,6

$240 Ticket

Budget Play

1: 1,2,4
2: 2,6
3: 1,2,6
4: 1,3,5,6

$72 Ticket

Posting a $240 P4 ticket is a disservice to the internet. Especially when said ticket is taking place in California, home of the 3/5 favorite. But that really isn't the point, posting a $240 ticket teaches you nothing, and no one else reading this thread nothing. Especially with field size. 6x6x10x6. With a $240 ticket, you have over 11% of the combinations covered

Using the 1 in the 3rd isn't possible since the horse isn't in the race either and using 5 out of 6 in the first leg, and 4 out of 6 in the last leg is just ridiculous.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

Posting a $240 P4 ticket is a disservice to the internet. Especially when said ticket is taking place in California, home of the 3/5 favorite. But that really isn't the point, posting a $240 ticket teaches you nothing, and no one else reading this thread nothing. Especially with field size. 6x6x10x6. With a $240 ticket, you have over 11% of the combinations covered

Using the 1 in the 3rd isn't possible since the horse isn't in the race either and using 5 out of 6 in the first leg, and 4 out of 6 in the last leg is just ridiculous.

Wow, now I atleast care about looking at the card.

[eajinabi]

$240 is a lot of money to play on a Pick 4 ticket unless its on BC Day and its on Multi-tickets.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

$240 is a lot of money to play on a Pick 4 ticket unless its on BC Day and its on Multi-tickets.

I don't do it, but I am not so sure it's that crazy. Look at the complete sht they bring in sometimes.

[thunderdan09]

Also, home of the biggest pools and a lot of nice maidens.

I use every horse I think can win the race. If you don't like the manner in which I structure my tickets, so be it but I also post a true ticket to the way I handicap. If I am covering over 11% of the possibilities than I am covering everything I need to.

I have a profitable ROI on my pick 4's, so if you disagree with some of my choices in my horses than tell me why please.

Don't tell me it's a disservice to the internet, I never rag on your selections.

I think the early pick 4 is very profitable, and I posted a smaller ticket just below it like I always do.

I ask you and everyone else on this site to criticize more the selection of my horse than how I am structuring my tickets. If you think $240 is too much for a Pick 4 that's fine, you are probably a more efficient handicapper than I am.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think it's all a matter of what you think it's gunna pay. No real easy answers to any of it. I can see having to use up about 50 units to get those horses in the 4th and 5th Thursday at Anita. They weren't in a common pick 4, but if they were, then It would probably take an all, and then go 5 deep. 2 horses in the other 2 legs, and that's $200. It's a shame they bring in garbage, but they love to do it.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by thunderdan09

Also, home of the biggest pools and a lot of nice maidens.

I use every horse I think can win the race. If you don't like the manner in which I structure my tickets, so be it but I also post a true ticket to the way I handicap. If I am covering over 11% of the possibilities than I am covering everything I need to.

I have a profitable ROI on my pick 4's, so if you disagree with some of my choices in my horses than tell me why please.

Don't tell me it's a disservice to the internet, I never rag on your selections.

I think the early pick 4 is very profitable, and I posted a smaller ticket just below it like I always do.

I ask you and everyone else on this site to criticize more the selection of my horse than how I am structuring my tickets. If you think $240 is too much for a Pick 4 that's fine, you are probably a more efficient handicapper than I am.

Betting a $240 ticket is one thing but posting it and sharing to us your "throw the darts and see what I get" approach doesnt really offer board members any insight to why you bet it. In other words there is no use posting it. Also its very hard to criticize your picks if you locked in 4-5 of 6 runners in a race.
We most likely wont question the horse you left.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

There are three 6 horse fields in the early pick 4? Yea, $240 is a lot(for that situation.) You would think I would read the 6x6x10x6 that SCAVS wrote. That's the smoggy brain in action.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Don't think I would leave a Skimming horse out of a hill race(especially with that smiley maggot T. BAZE up.) Blinks on, too. If ya look at his 1st turf sprint, it looks like the horse likes turf, but is acting a lil mentally impaired. Blinks may help. Actually both his sprints are pretty good. His 1st race was maiden claimer, but the winner of that won the Hollywood Prevue in his next race. I know he only cost 8k, but I won't be surprised if he runs a good one down the hill. Don't see the attraction to these maiden pick 4 combos. Pretty much plays right into the pocket of trainers.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by thunderdan09

Also, home of the biggest pools and a lot of nice maidens.

I use every horse I think can win the race. If you don't like the manner in which I structure my tickets, so be it but I also post a true ticket to the way I handicap. If I am covering over 11% of the possibilities than I am covering everything I need to.

I have a profitable ROI on my pick 4's, so if you disagree with some of my choices in my horses than tell me why please.

Don't tell me it's a disservice to the internet, I never rag on your selections.

I think the early pick 4 is very profitable, and I posted a smaller ticket just below it like I always do.

I ask you and everyone else on this site to criticize more the selection of my horse than how I am structuring my tickets. If you think $240 is too much for a Pick 4 that's fine, you are probably a more efficient handicapper than I am.

?? Ok, so because there are good maidens, that means to put in $250 on a $1 ticket, that regularly pays between $80 and $140?

If the field sizes were 10x10x9x12 and highly contested, say it is first weekend at Saratoga, well then I can see $250 into a sequence like that, but $250 into a Friday at Santa Anita with 6x6x10x6, horrible mismanagement.

Selecting a horse and how you structure your tickets are EQUALLY important. Any horse player that has been around for at least one year has heard the saying "All I do is pick winners and I have nothing to show for it because I can't structure". That ticket is TERRIBLY inefficient.

You will probably go and hit that ticket today for $2500 and that would be great BUT in the long run, be prepared to get torched with that method, and I can't wait to hear "I spent $250 and I got back $80"

[swedejxn]

Looked at these races for the survivor contest and here is a legit pick 4 play

3-6/4-6-7/1-3/1-4-7 personally don't see it coming in very high dollar...

$36 ticket

if you want some jackpots.... play the pick 4 on the inner at AQ
there have been some monster payouts... especially on weekends

[Rootdog1]

is that the late 4...we are talking about the early pk4.

[thunderdan09]

Originally Posted by Scav

?? Ok, so because there are good maidens, that means to put in $250 on a $1 ticket, that regularly pays between $80 and $140?

If the field sizes were 10x10x9x12 and highly contested, say it is first weekend at Saratoga, well then I can see $250 into a sequence like that, but $250 into a Friday at Santa Anita with 6x6x10x6, horrible mismanagement.

Selecting a horse and how you structure your tickets are EQUALLY important. Any horse player that has been around for at least one year has heard the saying "All I do is pick winners and I have nothing to show for it because I can't structure". That ticket is TERRIBLY inefficient.

You will probably go and hit that ticket today for $2500 and that would be great BUT in the long run, be prepared to get torched with that method, and I can't wait to hear "I spent $250 and I got back $80"

I understand your viewpoint on it and with all the scratches today it didn't matter.

I just couldn't definitively toss any of the horses I left in those short fields. I think in the long run spending $240 on a 6x6x10x6 field would be detrimental to a bank roll, I have never posted a ticket that high on this site over the past couple months. I just thought they were highly contested fields. Probably should have just bet the #1 horse I liked in the first and skipped the wager all together. I ended up spending $72 and making a profit of $36.

Sorry for sounding like an ass yesterday. Had a rough day.