3-yr-old Eclipse Award prop at Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

Pinnacle has recently put up this prop:
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"Sun 8/6 Who will win Champion 3 year old colt or gelding?
Bernardini must start in Travers for action. No action if neither wins Eclipse.

101 Barbaro -107
102 Bernardini -109 "
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I don't know why it's dated 8/6--somebody's goof.

This is a chance for those who have already annointed Bernardini as the 2nd coming of Spectacular Bid to cash in. I was tempted myself, but decided to pass.

Limits are low, and will remain so until Pinnacle takes in some more action on the prop.

--Dunbar

This is an odd bet. Basically they are giving you even money on Bernardini in the Travers because a Travers win will make him 3yr old of the year. There is no way the limit ever goes up. Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by boldruler

This is an odd bet. Basically they are giving you even money on Bernardini in the Travers because a Travers win will make him 3yr old of the year. There is no way the limit ever goes up. Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

Seriously? there is no way that the Travers locks up 3 year old of the year, your nuts....they both would have won two grade 1's, one against 20 horses and 10 horses and the other will win two of them with 10 horses combined in two races

Bernendini has to win the BC Classic to win 3 year old of the year, and EVEN then, he might not win that because they might give Barbaro 3 year old of the year and Bernendini Horse of the year

Scav, has a horse ever won horse of the year without winning the Eclipse for his own division? If so you might be right, they would love to give Barbaro an Eclipse without leaving out Bernardini, assuming he keeps dominating.

[Scav]

I swear it happened last year or the year before.....Sprinter of the year and 3 year old of the year or something(Lost in the Fog maybe?)

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Scav

Seriously? there is no way that the Travers locks up 3 year old of the year, your nuts....they both would have won two grade 1's, one against 20 horses and 10 horses and the other will win two of them with 10 horses combined in two races

Bernendini has to win the BC Classic to win 3 year old of the year, and EVEN then, he might not win that because they might give Barbaro 3 year old of the year and Bernendini Horse of the year

Bernardini has to win the Travers, obviously, but I don't think he has to win the Classic. If he beats older horses once and runs well in the Classic, he has a shot. I just don't understand how one horse can get the 3 year old Eclipse and one HOY... makes no sense to me.

[hockey2315]

2 things I'd like to correct/comment on-

Someone said that Bernardini is undefeated- he's not - I'm not sure if he lost at age 2 or 3 (I don't think he raced @ 2 but could be wrong) - but he lost in an allowance race- i believe it was his first race whenever it was- no matter when it was, Barbaro is undefeated for the sake of argument and Bernardini is not.

The NTRA poll is also totally misleading because, obviously, some voters stopped voting for Barbaro as soon as he got hurt because even if he is/was the best 3 y.o. or horse of any age, it wouldn't matter because he's retired. Even though the poll may usually be a good indicator of how the awards go, it's totally skewed this year.

[hockey2315]

O and boldruler- why does it matter what surface showing up is better on? Barbaro was better than him on both. And correct me if I'm wrong (I really don't know, not being sarcastic)- it's 3 y.o. of the year, right? Not 3 y.o. dirt horse of the year.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by boldruler

This is an odd bet. Basically they are giving you even money on Bernardini in the Travers because a Travers win will make him 3yr old of the year. There is no way the limit ever goes up. Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

I would be willing to bet VERY big money that the limit goes up. My limit on this bet is under $300 right now (limits at Pinnacle are player-specific). We'll see what it is in a day or two.

Scavs, what limit is it showing for you?

Boldruler, saying "nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds" is a very naive statement. Does that mean the Barbaro side is awful? Then how much are you unloading on the Bernardini side?

If the money really DID keep coming in on Bernardini, the line would move to a point where I (and many others) would certainly take Barbaro. Off the top of my head, I'd take Barbaro at +200, for example.

At least ONE of these 2 statements are true:
1. Bernardini at -107 is a GREAT bet
2. Barbaro at +200 is a GREAT bet.

If you think #2 is false, then you should be unloading on #1. btw, you can bet over and over at Pinnacle. Each time you bet, you will almost certainly move the line some, and then you can bet again. (at a worse line)

--Dunbar

[Scav]

http://www.trackchampion.com/forums/...ad.php?t=21280

This is where I first found out...not sure what my limit is as I can not sign in right now, I will check tonight first thing when I get home

[GPK]

my limit is $200 on that bet Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by GPK

my limit is $200 on that bet Dunbar

Wow, I've never heard of a limit that low there. I thought mine was low. btw, mine is a weird number that even includes cents; something like $274.61. This is my starting value for all their matchups. It only goes up when after they have had some action. My initial bet (of something like $274!) will move the line by as much as 8-10 cents.

Thanks for the info. I'm curious what the range of limits is--I've only looked into it a little, and I thought my max was way down on the low end. If you think about it, check on your own limit on this bet and post when it changes.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I would be willing to bet VERY big money that the limit goes up. My limit on this bet is under $300 right now (limits at Pinnacle are player-specific). We'll see what it is in a day or two.

Scavs, what limit is it showing for you?

Boldruler, saying "nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds" is a very naive statement. Does that mean the Barbaro side is awful? Then how much are you unloading on the Bernardini side?

If the money really DID keep coming in on Bernardini, the line would move to a point where I (and many others) would certainly take Barbaro. Off the top of my head, I'd take Barbaro at +200, for example.

At least ONE of these 2 statements are true:
1. Bernardini at -107 is a GREAT bet
2. Barbaro at +200 is a GREAT bet.

If you think #2 is false, then you should be unloading on #1. btw, you can bet over and over at Pinnacle. Each time you bet, you will almost certainly move the line some, and then you can bet again. (at a worse line)

--Dunbar

Dun, don't worry about Bold, he isn't a 'player'....maybe $100 a day, and if the track is lucky, $200

Originally Posted by Scav

Dun, don't worry about Bold, he isn't a 'player'....maybe $100 a day, and if the track is lucky, $200

That is about right. I do make a few $2000-$5000 bets a year, but no more than 5-6 a year. Showing Up will be one next weekend and if Bright One is better than even money I will be betting $1000 to win on him this weekend.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by boldruler

That is about right. I do make a few $2000-$5000 bets a year, but no more than 5-6 a year. Showing Up will be one next weekend and if Bright One is better than even money I will be betting $1000 to win on him this weekend.

You wish you are betting that much...Show me a ticket and then I will believe it

Any if you are doing that, which I doubt, you are leaving about $1500 on the table by not playing off shore...and if you are playing offshore, their should be a record of it

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by boldruler

This is an odd bet. Basically they are giving you even money on Bernardini in the Travers because a Travers win will make him 3yr old of the year. There is no way the limit ever goes up. Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

yep, just like it did last year for flower alley..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

The odds have swung to :
101 Barbaro -120
102 Bernardini +104

This indicates that Pinnacle has taken in MORE money on Barbaro than on Bernardini.

--Dunbar

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The odds have swung to :
101 Barbaro -120
102 Bernardini +104

This indicates that Pinnacle has taken in MORE money on Barbaro than on Bernardini.

--Dunbar

I was just checking this too...amazing the swinging this bet has done in the past 24 hours.

[Danzig]

probably because there was another big race yesterday, and now invasor is on all minds, not bernardini.

just wait til after the haskell!

such short memories....except amazingly where it comes to barbaros victories. he's turning into legend, bernardini will have to become one himself to compete with that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

probably because there was another big race yesterday, and now invasor is on all minds, not bernardini.

just wait til after the haskell!

such short memories....except amazingly where it comes to barbaros victories. he's turning into legend, bernardini will have to become one himself to compete with that.

Oddly enough, Pinnacle has taken the prop down altogether, as if the outcome of the Haskell WILL have a big effect on the odds line for the Barbaro vs Bernardini prop.

I can see where the Haskell outcome might have a small effect. A big win by Bluegrass Cat might flatter Barbaro's Ky Derby, for example. But I'm still surprised they've taken it down.

--Dunbar