134th New Zealand Derby - Feb 29, 2009

[_ed_]

I know it's still more than 3 weeks away, but it's starting to get pretty exciting now so why not start early?

NEW ZEALAND DERBY
Ellerslie, Auckland, NZ
G1
2400m (mile and a half)

The Derby is New Zealand's richest (NZ$2.2 million - about US $1.0-1.2 million) and most prestigious race, and has been won by many of our greatest ever racehorses - including Desert Gold, Gloaming, Kindergarten, Mainbrace, Dalray, Sobig, Balmerino, Uncle Remus, Bonecrusher, Tidal Light, Castletown, The Phantom Chance, Zonda and Xcellent.

We've had a couple of disappointing 3yo crops lately, but last year's was great - the winner C'est La Guerre and Nom du Jeu, Red Ruler, Fritzy Boy and Prince Kaapstad have all performed well at G1 level this season as older horses.

This year's 3yo crop looks very good to me at this point as well.

ORDER OF ENTRY, Feb 4 2009 (done by earnings)
Tell A Tale
Alagant Satin
Le Baron
Juice
Coniston Bluebird (AUS)
Skirmish
Moveovr
The Meista
Spontaneous
Court Ruler
My Scotsgrey
Easy Ryder
Takeanotherchance
Down The Road
Izonit
I Robot
The Spaniard
Sufficient

All of those are safely in the field. The others still hoping to get in:
Jungle Boots
Heza Karma Kazi
Fears Nothing
Late Addition
Gallant
Carchelo
Quinta De Lago
Diamond Glitter
Brunel
Sun Ruler

Jungle Boots is running in a non-stakes race this Saturday that he should win, which would put him into the 18.

Alagant Satin and Juice are fillies, who I think will go to the Oaks instead of the Derby. They run in a G2 fillies race this Saturday.

MY TOP 5 (at the moment, subject to change)

Tell A Tale - Proved himself to be the best 3yo in the country earlier in the season with four stakes wins in a row, including the G1 2000 Guineas. Distance is the only concern.

Le Baron - Undefeated beyond a mile, with two stakes wins on the Derby track.

Jungle Boots - So much potential, but a bit of a nutcase. If he hasn't grown up by Derby day, he'll lose it in front of the crowd.

Gallant - I really like this horse. He's running in a G2 next week, probably needs to win or be 2nd to get enough money to make the Derby field. I think he can.

Easy Ryder - It was a 20-1 upset when he won one of the main prep races last weekend, but he did it very stylishly, and he's trained by 4-time Derby winner Roger James.

Since university doesn't start again until 2 days after the Derby, I have nothing to do until then. So I'll do one post for each horse, at about one post per day (or just a bit faster to squeeze in the 28 in 24 days).

EDIT: Oops, typo in the title. It's the 28th, obviously.

[_ed_]

TELL A TALE
Gelding
Tale of the Cat - Cheeky Veronika

Trainer: Mark Walker (the Todd Pletcher of NZ - dominant trainer for the last 5 years but no Derby wins yet!)

Starts: 10
1st: 5
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $772,200

1st 2000 Guineas (G1)
1st Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2)
1st Avondale Guineas (G2)
1st Canterbury Stakes


Tell A Tale (outside) during his amazing run from near last to win the 2000 Guineas

Videos:
2000 Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2mS1qm-p6E
Hawke's Bay Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_VeBacVVcI
Avondale Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDkp6M5R320

Route to the Derby:
His last start before the Derby will be this Saturday in the G1 International Stakes, against older horses. Champion jockey Michael Walker will ride.

Derby Futures: 6-1 (3rd fav)

PROS:
- Amazing winning sequence in the spring
- Performances so impressive that many consider him one of the best 3yos in the last decade

CONS:
- Lacked the same finish in his last two starts - 5th in G1 Zabeel Classic against older horses in his first start over a mile (possible excuse - wide trip, ridiculously slow pace (2:06 for the mile and a quarter), then 4th resuming over a mile. Is he tiring?
- No horse has won the 2000 Guineas-Derby double since 1990. Very hard to do.
- Tale of the Cat, mile and a half?

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks for all the info, ed. I'm familiar with Tell a Tale (thanks to your past posts and replays)... Sufficient though - tell me about that one cause I seem to remember liking that one but am not quite awake.

[_ed_]

Ok, I'll do him next!

SUFFICIENT
Colt
Zabeel - Fleur De Chine

Trainer: Bruce Wallace

Starts: 7
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 0
Earnings: $60,591

1st Champagne Stakes


Sufficient making a winning start to his Derby campaign, at Ellerslie last month.

Videos:
Champagne Stakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un45IOdESm0

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14.

Derby Futures: 7-1 (4th fav)

PROS:
- 2 wins at Ellerslie, including Champagne Stakes over 1m as a 2yo
- By Zabeel! He has sired 3 Derby winners - Zonda, Helene Vitality, St Reims

CONS:
- 2yo earnings don't count. He is 18th at the moment, but if he doesn't run well in the Championship Stakes others could push him out of the field.

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks ed! You're the best!!!

[_ed_]

LE BARON
Gelding
Zabeel - Dame Mapperley

Trainer: Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs

Starts: 7
1st: 3
2nd: 1
3rd: 2
Earnings: $134,015

1st Great Northern Guineas (G2)
1st Guineas Prelude


Le Baron (outside - blue, black and green) surging to the lead from the back of the field in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie on Boxing Day.

Videos:
Great Northern Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0E9250t9mQ

Route to the Derby:
Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14.

Derby Futures: 5-1 (fav)

PROS:
- Undefeated in 2 starts beyond a mile
- Loads of stamina in the pedigree
- 2 stakes wins at Ellerslie, which is of course where the Derby is

CONS:
- Only 8th, without excuses, in his resuming run on January 25th. It was only over a mile, but he should have done better than that.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh my God, ed... this is so cool. Thanks for all the time you're putting into this.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

MY TOP 5 (at the moment, subject to change)
.

I was wondering your (present) Top 5...

[_ed_]

Ooh, ok. Hmm.

Jungle Boots
Le Baron
The Meista (2nd in the G2 at Ellerslie today, so showed he could run clockwise. That was my only doubt about him.)
Easy Ryder
Late Addition (Very nice win on the undercard today.)

Sufficient would probably be in my 5 if he gets in to the field. He's 20th at the moment, so either needs to win another race or have 2 horses above him (there are 2 fillies there that will probably go to the Oaks instead, so it could happen).

I really want to see Tell A Tale win, but I'm not sure he'll be back at full fitness in time.