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#1
02-12-2009, 06:37 PM
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Friday Aqueduct 6th- 3YO facing elders
I'm sure this topic has been discussed before but what is everyone's opinion on 3YOs facing elders at this time of year. In the 6th at Aqueduct tomorrow half of the ten entrants are 3YO. What does everyone think?
NT 
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#2
02-12-2009, 06:43 PM
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#3
02-12-2009, 06:53 PM
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This time of year .. I think the 3yo's are at a disadvantage the longer the distance of the race would be. Going 6fs or less ... it's not a big deal at all..maybe even advantagous if the weight spread is real big.
There are always early season 2yo fillies capable of setting crazy fast fractions and running fast enough to beat good older filly sprinters at distances like 5fs. Stretching out is the hard part.
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#4
02-12-2009, 07:06 PM
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I should have included some more specifics about this particular race. It's a 6 furlong NY bred N1X allowance and four of the older horses have apprentices on board (with Sheldon Russell named on two) so they're carrying the same weight as the 3YOs. One 3YO, Vinnie Van Go, carries 118, which is more than four of the older horses.
The older horses in here are nothing special, but I imagine with the narrow weight spread they are up against it. NT
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#5
02-12-2009, 07:36 PM
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I don't find any negative to doing it. It's a little earlier than usual but I think with the weight advantages that 3yos are supposed to get on the scale, the earlier in the season, the better. Especially at shorter distances. Fast is fast. If a horse can run a 1:08, it doesn't matter if he's facing fellow 3yos or 6yos. There are a couple of races in Europe towards the end of the year that are for 2yos and up and I believe that a couple of 2yos have indeed won the Nunthorpe Stakes, which is a grade one sprint. As I said, it's a little earlier than I would have previously thought about but I've said on here a few times with some of the 3yos in past years that I would have loved to see them take on older in races like the Carter and Met Mile. Nowdays, it's almost looked at as stupid to try older in the Met but people have short memories and forget that Conquistador Cielo, Gulch, Holy Bull, and a couple of others have won it. In the 80's and into the early 90's, it was a regular occurance to have a 3yo be prominent in the race.
Java Gold beat Cutlass Reality early in his 3yo season. That was for you Blackthroatedwind.
__________________
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#6
02-12-2009, 07:43 PM
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#7
02-12-2009, 07:40 PM
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Head Heart Hoof has Dominguez aboard so this one will be overbet. He looks like a sucker horse. That's Rich looks like he has some ability. I could see him hanging on for a board placing. Take a Number looks like he'll run up the track. Vinnie Van Go will not get a perfect trip. I don't think he's much of a race horse and the same goes for Papa Charlie.
Sir Sapphire is an overlay at 15-1. He's run some decent races and looks like a live longshot. Phoebia has spped and should run the 3 yer speed into the ground. I think he tires in the lane. The Paraneck entry could clunk up for a piece. I like Sir Sapphire at big odds to run a big race and win.
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