My Derby odds

[JJP]

Its still 5 days out and posts haven't been drawn but IMO, this is a good starting point:

I Want Revenge 3-1
Dunkirk 9-2
Fresian Fire 6-1
Pioneer of the Nile 8-1
General Quarters 8-1
Musket Man 10-1
Papa Clem 15-1
Regal Ransom 15-1
Chocolate Candy 20-1
Desert Party 20-1
Advice 30-1
We Willy 30-1
Hold Me Back 30-1
Square Eddie 30-1
Mr Hot Stuff 50-1
West Side Bernie, Summer Bird, Mone that Bird all 99-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by JJP

Its still 5 days out and posts haven't been drawn but IMO, this is a good starting point:

I Want Revenge 3-1
Dunkirk 9-2
Fresian Fire 6-1
Pioneer of the Nile 8-1
General Quarters 8-1 - way higher
Musket Man 10-1 - a lot higher
Papa Clem 15-1 - a little higher
Regal Ransom 15-1 - higher
Chocolate Candy 20-1
Desert Party 20-1 - way lower. . . unfortunately. . .
Advice 30-1
Win Willy 30-1
Hold Me Back 30-1 - lower?
Square Eddie 30-1 - lower?
Mr Hot Stuff 50-1
West Side Bernie - lower, Summer Bird, Mine that Bird all 99-1

......

[philcski]

You're missing a few horses... although I don't disagree with your line too much (even though it doesn't quite add up to par), other than i think you're low on General Quarters and Musket Man. Monba didn't have too much difference of a profile to GQ and he went off at 31-1 last year.

Here's my new line with Quality Road out.

I Want Revenge 3
Dunkirk 5
Fresian Fire 7
Pioneer of the Nile 8
General Quarters 17
Musket Man 20
Papa Clem 20
Desert Party 20
Regal Ransom 23
Chocolate Candy 25
West Side Bernie 25
Win Willy 30
Hold Me Back 30
Square Eddie 30
Advice 40
Mr Hot Stuff 50
Summer Bird 60
Mine that Bird 60
Flying Private 60
Join In the Dance 60

[JJP]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're missing a few horses... although I don't disagree with your line too much (even though it doesn't quite add up to par), other than i think you're low on General Quarters and Musket Man. Monba didn't have too much difference of a profile to GQ and he went off at 31-1 last year.

Here's my new line with Quality Road out.

I Want Revenge 3
Dunkirk 5
Fresian Fire 7
Pioneer of the Nile 8
General Quarters 17
Musket Man 20
Papa Clem 20
Desert Party 20
Regal Ransom 23
Chocolate Candy 25
West Side Bernie 25
Win Willy 30
Hold Me Back 30
Square Eddie 30
Advice 40
Mr Hot Stuff 50
Summer Bird 60
Mine that Bird 60
Flying Private 60
Join In the Dance 60

Needless to say I'm a bit bullish on both General Quarters and Musket Man; at least in that I think both could crash the tri. I'd say there's a huge difference between Momba and General Quarters: GQ has already run a 102 Beyer in a two turn DIRT race while Momba was not a dirt horse at all. I would compare Momba to Hold Me Back, who looks like a synthetic specialist.

[robfla]

I believe that Phil is much closer to the expected prices...

I would be very surprised to see more than 4 horses under 15:1 ( IWR, Dunkirk, POTN, FF ) . Probably several between 15-25:1 ( Papa Clem, Choc Candy, Desert Party, GQ. )and the rest 25:1 and over with Mine That Bird and Flying Pvt rounding out the prices at over 60:1

[Bobby Fischer]

Now Square Eddie out??

this is tha ol' bait and switch!

they keep scratching the underlays

if they scratch Pioneerof denial I am learning to hustle poker

[ninetoone]

I would guess that POTN will be lower odds than Fresian Fire....just a guess.