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#1
04-29-2009, 11:37 AM
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5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)
11TH (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000 1 West Side Bernie (Kelly Breen/Stewart Elliott) 30-1 2 Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) 20-1 3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/John Velazquez) 30-1 4 Advice (Todd Pletcher/Rene Douglas) 30-1 5 Hold Me Back (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux) 15-1 6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) 5-1 7 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 20-1 8 Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley/Calvin Borel) 50-1 9 Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher/Chris DeCarlo) 50-1 10 Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor/Alan Garcia) 30-1 11 Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith) 20-1 12 General Quarters (Tom McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) 20-1 13 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 3-1 14 Atomic Rain (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) 50-1 15 Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) 4-1 16 Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 4-1 17 Summer Bird (Tim Ice/Chris Rosier) 50-1 18 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Shaun Bridgmohan) 50-1 19 Desert Party (Saeed bin Suroor/Ramon Dominguez) 15-1 20 Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) 50-1 Last edited by Kasept : 04-29-2009 at 05:51 PM. 
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#2
04-29-2009, 11:40 AM
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#4
04-29-2009, 12:31 PM
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#5
04-29-2009, 12:32 PM
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That's a must-be mistake. He's been 15-1 on most people's probable list, and I think with Quality Road out, I'd be lucky to get that(my wagers will revolve around Choco)
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#6
04-29-2009, 12:34 PM
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he is 20-1
__________________
Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#7
04-29-2009, 02:07 PM
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Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.
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#9
04-29-2009, 03:20 PM
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#11
04-30-2009, 01:05 PM
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__________________
Ron Thompson   Avatar is Invasor in his stall/Post Classic taken by my trusty cell phone camera.
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#12
04-29-2009, 11:44 AM
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Chocolate Candy fans have to love that price
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#13
04-29-2009, 11:51 AM
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I was anticipating 15:1 - 20:1 ML for him
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#14
04-29-2009, 01:40 PM
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general quarters 20-1. if i was at the track, that would be one horse i would seriously consider betting. musket man is another.
but who i really would put a couple bucks on, just because? dwl and flying private at 50-1.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#15
05-02-2009, 03:17 AM
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An Objective View
My daughter is a good capper but not at all into horseracing. She is in law school,so of course,she needs money. I told her to cap the derby & I would send her money. She is oblivoius to any of the info & hype we thrive on. This is what she sent:
Andrea’s 135th Kentucky Derby Picks v The Bottom Line Ø Pioneer of the Nile Ø Papa Clem Ø Dunkirk (my best long shot) v Definite Eliminations Based on Lifetime Record and Who Beat Who Analysis § Westside Bernie § Mr. Hot Stuff § Join in the Dance § Atomic Rain § Summer Bird § Nowhere to Hide § Flying Private v Eliminations based on the same but weak performances as opposed to poor performances § Hold Me Back § Advice v Somewhere in the Middle all have a real shot based on those same factors § Mine that Bird § Regal Ransom § Chocolate Candy § General Quarters § I want Revenge § Dunkirk § Desert Party § Musket Man v Outstanding based on same factors § Pioneer the Nile § Fresian Fire § Papa Clem v Special Notes About Non-Eliminated Horses § Pioneer the Nile looks almost unbeatable he will certainly be in the money absent exigent circumstances § Desert Party and Regal Ransom seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another § Likewise Musket Man and General Quarters seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another § Desert Party seems a bit weaker than the others to me for some reason v Horses who have made big bucks § Regal Ransom (no wonder the name), Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, and I want Revenge….. § I was surprised that Dunkirk made so little money. v Based on the other information, blood, and jockeys my picks are: § Top 3 ¨ Pioneer of the Nile § Sire: Empire Maker (Unbridled) ¨ Papa Clem § Sire: Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector) ¨ Dunkirk (my best long shot) § Sire: Unbridled Song (Unbridled) § Dam: Secret Status (A.P. Indy) § Other Possibles ¨ Friesian Fire (was one of my original top three but I feel wishy washy) § Sire: A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) ¨ Regal Ransom (Good long-shot?) ¨ I Want Revenge § Sire: Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) ¨ General Quarters § Sire: Sky Mesa (Pulpit) § Dam: Ecology (Unbridled Song) § Others that cannot be eliminated ¨ Chocolate Candy § Dam: Crownett (Seattle Slew) ¨ Musket Man § Yonaguska (Cherokee Run)
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#16
05-02-2009, 06:41 AM
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My top 5
REGAL RANSOM (#10) Garcia / bin Suroor 30-1
When my original pick declared from the race, I decided to go with a speed horse that is bred with stamina and landed on this longshot; upset his better regarded stablemate in the UAE Derby and can repeat that performance at huge odds; hoping he has a clear lead into the stretch and it’s to the windows! I WANT REVENGE (#13) Talamo / Mullins 3-1 The logical “horse to beat” off his two efforts at Aqueduct after shipping from the west coast; overcame a lot of trouble in his brilliant Wood Memorial victory; has all the makings of a Derby winner….if you like a short price. HOLD ME BACK (#5) Desormeaux / Mott 15-1 This well bred closer ran good in his last two starts (both on synthetic surfaces); one dirt try wasn’t that good though; at this price, looks better than other synthetic horses who have never raced on the “real” stuff. FRIESAN FIRE (#6) Saez / Jones 5-1 Swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races this year; hasn’t raced in seven weeks though, which could be a concern; may get overlooked in the wagering and does move up on a wet track. MR. HOT STUFF (#3) Velazquez / Harty 30-1 This full brother to last year’s runner; Colonel John has no early foot & will be rallying late; could be a huge price if the race falls apart late; solid longshot play.
__________________
"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#17
05-02-2009, 08:38 AM
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I am on the same five and plan to add Desest Party and Chocolate Candy in an Exacta Box. Best of luck to all playing and hope all horses and jocks return safe.
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#20
05-02-2009, 05:14 PM
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Edit: With I Want Revenge out, Pioneer is now on my ticket: Exacta Box Mr Hot Stuff Hold Me Back Friesan Fire Regal Ransom Chocolate Candy Pioneer of the Nile Desert Party
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Hybrid Mode
