Weekend Beyers (Rachel 108; Bird 105)

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY OAKS (G1) - RACHEL ALEXANDRA: 108
WOODFORD RESERVETURF CLASSIC S.(G1)-EINSTEIN: 106
WESTCHESTER S.(G3)-BRIBON: 105

KENTUCKY DERBY(G1) - MINE THAT BIRD: 105 (Previous 3 Beyers: 80-81-74)
Pioneerof the Nile: 95 (Previous 3 Beyers: 96-90-95)
Musket Man: 95 (Previous 3 Beyers: 98-90-91)
ALSO RAN: Papa Clem (95), Chocolate Candy (86), Summer Bird (86), Join in the Dance (84), Regal Ransom (83), West Side Bernie (82), General Quarters (79), Dunkirk (77), Hold Me Back (75), Advice (74), Desert Party (73), Mr. Hot Stuff (71)

FORT MARCY S.(G3)-COSMONAUT: 103
CHURCHILL DOWNS S.(G2)-ACCREDIT: 102

AEGON TURF SPRINT.(G3)-CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE: 97
HUMANA DISTAFF S.(G1)-INFORMED DECISION: 96
LOUISVILLE DISTAFF S.(G2)-MISS ISELLA: 96
BEAUGAY S.(G3)-MY PRINCESS JESS: 96
ALYSHEBA S.(G3)-BULLSBAY: 95
WILSHIRE H.(G3)-GORGEOUS GOOSE: 93
CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE S.(G2)-TIZAQUEENA: 90

EIGHT BELLES S.(G3)-FOUR GIFTS: 88
AMERICAN TURF S.(G3)-ORTHODOX: 88
NASSAU COUNTY S.(G3)-FLASHING: 87
KENTUCKY JUVENILE S.(G3)-AEGEAN 79



*Kentucky Oaks (CD): Rachel Alexandra (H. Wiggins/C. Borel) - 108
*Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (CD): Einstein - Brz (H. Pitts/J. Leparoux) - 106
*Westchester (Bel): Bribon (R. Ribaudo/A. Garcia) - 105
*Kentucky Derby (CD): Mine That Bird (B. Wooley Jr./C. Borel) - 105
*Fort Marcy (Bel): Cosmonaut (P. Serpe/J. Lezcano) - 103
*Panhandle (Mnr): Trust Or Bust (P. McClelland/G. Almodovar) - 103
*Churchill Downs (CD): Accredit (M. Maker/J. Leparoux) - 102

*Timeless Native (AP): Coragil Cat (G. Geier/D. Sanchez) - 98
*Aegon Turf Sprint (CD): Chamberlain Bridge (W. Calhoun/G. Gomez) - 97
*Humana Distaff (CD): Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) - 96
*Louisville Distaff (CD): Miss Isella (I. Wilkes/C. Borel) - 96
*Beaugay (Bel): My Princess Jess (B. Tagg/C. Velasquez) - 96
*Alysheba (CD): Bullsbay (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 95
*Senorita (Hol): Mrs Kipling (N. Drysdale/D. Flores) - 94
*Wilshire (Hol): Gorgeous Goose (M. Puype/C. Nakatani) - 93
*Tony Gatto Dream Big (Atl): Hesa Big Star (H. Wolfendale/H. Vega) - 93
*Edgewood (CD): Laragh (J. Terranova II/E. Prado) - 93
*Chris Thomas Turf Classic (Tam): Dinner in Odem (P. Wasiluk Jr./P. Teator) - 91
*Tellike (EvD): Flawless Gold (M. Chatters/N. Puello) - 90
*George Royal (Hst): Seminole Brave (M. Snow/I. Mosqueira) - 90
*Golden Circle (PrM): Slater's Peanuts (K. Smith/T. Doocy) - 90
*Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (CD): Tizaqueena (M. Stidham/H. Theriot II) - 90

*Need for Speed (EVD): Call Me Collect (K. Bourgeois/D. Dugas) - 89
*Double Delta (AP): Afleet Deceit (S. Becker/C. Emigh) - 88
*Eight Belles (CD): Four Gifts (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 88
*Federico Tesio (Pim): Miner's Escape (N. Zito/L. Garcia) - 88
*American Turf (CD): Orthodox (J. Glenney/J. Court) - 88
*Bouwerie (Bel): Sapphire Sky (D. Donk/J. Velazquez) - 88
*Nassau County (Bel): Flashing (T. Albertrani/J. Castellano) - 87
*Richard Radke Illinois Owners (AP): Voy Por Uno Mas (M. Yanez/J. Alvarado) - 86
*Hasta La Vista (TuP): Highland Games (L. Rollins/M. Hernandez) - 85
*Angenora (Tdn): Pay the Man (M. Feliciano/R. Feliciano) - 84
*Naked Greed (Crc): Prince Joshua (B. Rose/L. Colon) - 84
*Jack Cole (SRP): Some Ghost (J. Alley/K. Tohill) - 83
*Queenston (WO): El Brujo (M. Pierce/P. Husbands) - 81
*Snurb (Crc): First Passage (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 80
*Desert Sky (TuP): Star of Whitney (D. Sowers/R. Eikleberry) - 80
*Fury (WO): Woodsmoke (M. Keogh/T. Pizarro) - 80

*Kentucky Juvenile (CD): Aegean (W. Ward/R. Douglas) - 79
*Babst/Palacios Memorial (Beu): Left On Base (D. Rowe/E. Paucar) - 78
*Al Swihart Memorial (Fon): Miss Missile (C. Smith/B. Butler) - 78
*Silky Sullivan (GG): Feisty Suances (D. Vienna/K. Kaenel) - 77

[booner]

Concerning MTB's 105.......

I haven't paid close attention, but I know a horse making his 2nd start, a surface change or adding equipment could improve 25 points. He was running in the slop for the first time. Is a jump like this rare or has it happened often?

[skippy3481]

Its relatively rare. A horse like this has an established patter of numbers and if you look, most of his beyers are in the same range. For him to jump 25 points in one race in the biggest race for a three year old..... is very rare

[Left Bank]

So where are all the people screaming"CHEATER"??? Come on people,this horse had a beyer jump no different than This one's for Phil,and every one started screaming that Dutrow was cheating.So what about Wooley?I can't wait to hear it.

[slotdirt]

I told everybody who would listen on Saturday at about 7:00 p.m. that the horse was on drugs, but have since come out of a julep-induced haze.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

So where are all the people screaming"CHEATER"??? Come on people,this horse had a beyer jump no different than This one's for Phil,and every one started screaming that Dutrow was cheating.So what about Wooley?I can't wait to hear it.

the media does not have an axe to grind with this trainer - it's pure and simple

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by gales0678

the media does not have an axe to grind with this trainer - it's pure and simple

Surely that's all it is. It's definitely not because the trainer isn't an unapologetic confirmed career cheater. Darn that axe-grinding media!

[booner]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

Its relatively rare. A horse like this has an established patter of numbers and if you look, most of his beyers are in the same range. For him to jump 25 points in one race in the biggest race for a three year old..... is very rare

So, taking that into consideration, I Want Revenge jumped 21 points in his move from synthetic to dirt. That would also be considered a rare jump?

I'm not trying to debate, just trying to learn a little from this. I realize it was a big jump in the biggest race for 3 year olds, but is this a tool to look at in other situations down the road?

[slotdirt]

If there were some Sunland - Churchill Downs angle, I'm sure we would have all been playing it long ago. There is absolutely nothing in this horse's pre-Derby form, at least to me, that is a lesson to be learned.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If there were some Sunland - Churchill Downs angle, I'm sure we would have all been playing it long ago. There is absolutely nothing in this horse's pre-Derby form, at least to me, that is a lesson to be learned.

I agree, This horse was on drugs, no other reason can explain what happened

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If there were some Sunland - Churchill Downs angle, I'm sure we would have all been playing it long ago. There is absolutely nothing in this horse's pre-Derby form, at least to me, that is a lesson to be learned.

So what the odds that some 15k claiming horses from Sunland start to ship over to Churchill for some graded stakes races?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by booner

So, taking that into consideration, I Want Revenge jumped 21 points in his move from synthetic to dirt. That would also be considered a rare jump?

I'm not trying to debate, just trying to learn a little from this. I realize it was a big jump in the biggest race for 3 year olds, but is this a tool to look at in other situations down the road?

Horses can make big jumps for a variety of reasons. IWR's jump is much more logical and can be explained by the surface change from synthetics to what is his obviously preferred surface, dirt. There are many that believe that the Beyer's are always lower than they should be on synthetics (I believe that Beyer has recently stated that he is even going to try to adjust this) which can explain part of IWR's jump. However, since IWR's breeding was for dirt, his jump was not only logical, but led many, like myself, to believe that it was for real and not just a freak race. This was validated when he put up a big number in the Wood while in hand despite his nightmare trip.

MTB's jump is hard to explain. You often see a lightly raced horse make a big jump or a horse that makes a big jump from 2 to 3 years old, but what makes MTR's jump confusing is that he did have enough races and a Beyer pattern that would not lead one to believe that he could make such a huge jump at this point in time.

The real question to ask is whether you believe that MTB's jump was real and whether he can sustain it in the Preakness/Belmont. Many horses regress after such a big jump, many never even come close to approaching such a figure again, and I have to believe that MTB did not suddenly become the top three year old overnight and will run nowhere close the race he did on Saturday. There are others such as TFM that believe the Beyers are complete garbage.

I believe that MTB will be a huge underlay in the Preakness even at 8-1 or 10-1 relative to his actual chances of producing a winning performance which will create overlays. The problem that I have is that the rest of the field ran so badly, it is hard to make a case as to the horse that should crush whoever enters that race.

[booner]

Originally Posted by pointman

Horses can make big jumps for a variety of reasons. IWR's jump is much more logical and can be explained by the surface change from synthetics to what is his obviously preferred surface, dirt. There are many that believe that the Beyer's are always lower than they should be on synthetics (I believe that Beyer has recently stated that he is even going to try to adjust this) which can explain part of IWR's jump. However, since IWR's breeding was for dirt, his jump was not only logical, but led many, like myself, to believe that it was for real and not just a freak race. This was validated when he put up a big number in the Wood while in hand despite his nightmare trip.

MTB's jump is hard to explain. You often see a lightly raced horse make a big jump or a horse that makes a big jump from 2 to 3 years old, but what makes MTR's jump confusing is that he did have enough races and a Beyer pattern that would not lead one to believe that he could make such a huge jump at this point in time.

The real question to ask is whether you believe that MTB's jump was real and whether he can sustain it in the Preakness/Belmont. Many horses regress after such a big jump, many never even come close to approaching such a figure again, and I have to believe that MTB did not suddenly become the top three year old overnight and will run nowhere close the race he did on Saturday. There are others such as TFM that believe the Beyers are complete garbage.

I believe that MTB will be a huge underlay in the Preakness even at 8-1 or 10-1 relative to his actual chances of producing a winning performance which will create overlays. The problem that I have is that the rest of the field ran so badly, it is hard to make a case as to the horse that should crush whoever enters that race.

This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.

Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?

Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.

[slotdirt]

Tizaqueena's performance was awesome from a pure guts standpoint.