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#1
05-29-2009, 08:25 AM
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5/29: Belmont ($32k C/O)
Being in position to benefit from an upset worked in my favor Thursday when #12 (AE draw-in) Becky's Exchange made her turf debut a winner at 21-1. The big price tripped $1,247 worth of P4 action on the $72 play thanks to the dead heat in the opening leg. Whether the winner was overlooked due to her main track form or being Also Eligible, as a daughter of Exchange Rate, whose progeny win 15% of their grass bows, she had every right to improve against an ordinary field.
As mentioned above, just getting in position to hit a lucrative P4 like Thursday's is half the battle, and you cannot find the big payoffs without overlay horses on your tickets. Juxtapose Thursday versus two recent examples: May 23, when Joey's Chance (my Super Add choice) was left off the ticket and a $1,600 score was missed, and May 25 when Manitowish Waters (Live to $170 payoff) held off Hint (Live to $1,700 payoff). Thursday's payday was realized because you included an outsider that was a possible winner on breeding versus a suspect group. Similarly on Monday, Hint was a horse that had a legitimate win chance and came agonizing close. He could have won and delivered the big return, just as even money Warm Springs Girl could have beaten Beck's Exchange Thursday and quashed the P4 down to $100. Remember that the reason you are playing a multi-race sequence is to specifically find horses like Joey's Chance (14-1), Hint (13-1) and Becky's Exchange (21-1) because their presence in a P4 or P3 are instrumental in the bonanza overpays in the skiens. Rough night of weather and possible storms have taken turf races out of the Belmont Carryover equation, an d though I've capped the sequence, scratches may render the multis unplayable. Thoughts are below and we'll see how the changes affect things later today... Hope you did well Thursday with the $1,250 P4 or $1,700+ 9th superfecta there for the taking. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES OFF THE TURF -- 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th 4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #11 Flip the Coin 5-1 WON Best Value: #9 Quantifier 8-1 4th Next Best: #5 Code Name 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Rock Candy Mt. 10-1 3rd 5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, NO TRI OR SUPER) Most Likely: #2 Call Tiger 2-1 2nd Best Value: #6 In the Spotlight 15-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Pirate King 3-1 WON 6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, NO SUPER) Most Likely: #4 Eager Emma 7-2 WON Next Best: #2 Carts Dream 8-1 6th Best Value: #7 Z Cats Meow 15-1 5th 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD) Most Likely: #10 Loquacious Lil 3-1 WON Next Best: #5 Dressed to Win 5-2 5th Best Value: #11 Driven by Seattle 6-1 2nd 8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD) Best Value: #4 Nijinsky Bullet 6-1 5th Most Likely: #5 Red Hot Jazz 4-1 6th Next Best: #2 Turn Away 7-5 WON 9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (NO SUPER) Best Value: #4 Victory for M'lady 10-1 2nd Most Likely: #9 Ski Ensign 6-1 6th Next Best: #8 Eightyfive S 8-1 WON Super Add: #10 Sumwhrovrtherainbw 15-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-4-7 7: 10 8: ALL 9: 4-8-9-10 3x1x6x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (4/10/2/8) Paid $80.50 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-29-2009 at 05:36 PM. 
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#2
05-29-2009, 10:07 AM
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Great work Steve. I haven't been playing much, but watching the action and you are in the groove. Between what you had already posted and Andy giving out the 7 and the 12 in the ninth yesterday was nothing short of amazing. It's quite impressive!
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#3
05-29-2009, 11:17 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
05-29-2009, 11:25 AM
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steve congrats on all the nice hits - you are on fire no question the pick 4 paid more than a $2 parlay on either of the two winners from the 6th - 9th that is what is supposed to happen when there is a 21/1 shot in the p4
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#5
05-29-2009, 11:32 AM
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BELMONT SCR'S -- SLOPPY/SEALED & AGAIN... OFF THE TURF
4 1A Sarah's Sally Early 2 Love for a Price Early 3 Imagonnacatchyou Early 5 3 Kick Up Your Heels Early NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA 4 Southern Prince Early 5 Peperoni Early 8 Matt's a Giant Early 10 The Zipster Early 6 3 Cap the Thunder Early NO SUPERFECTA 6 Spancill Hill Early 7 2 Token Special Early 3 Wise Choice Early 6 Dattts Baby Selina Early 8 Carnita Early 9 1A Myakka Early NO SUPERFECTA 2 My Anna Rose Early 3 Zip by You Early 6 Zegarra Early 11 Delta Weekend Early 12 Way to Karakorum Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
05-29-2009, 11:44 AM
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Waiting for the pick 4 scores is the best part of At The Races. I tend to doze off when you're interviewing paint on a wall.
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#8
05-29-2009, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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