|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
08-15-2009, 04:35 AM
|
||||
|
||||
8/15: Saratoga (Day 16; Sword Dancer; C/O)
Odd day selecting Friday with early scores in the first (All exotics inside box including $2.4k Super) and second (Top four straight) and then a lull till later in the card (7th-9th P3). Beaten in last by $50 Suffolk surprise who was not impossible by any means making first start versus conditioned claimers. P4 paid $5,888 too, but carryover also a result. Was occupied with truly wonderful day of Hall of Fame induction activities including ATR visits from Bob Baffert, Mike Pegram, Janet Eliot, Charley Fenwick, Kent Desormeaux and Graham Motion. Hope you did well Friday, enjoyed the At the Races coverage and are ready for a great weekend!
SARATOGA RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #9 Chief Export 5-1 Most Likely: #1a Hurricane Heat 2-1 Next Best: #7 Double or Nothing 5-1 Super Add: #5 Gimmearoutine 8-1 2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Liston 3-1 Best Value: #9 Callide Valley 10-1 Next Best: #3 World Record 6-1 Super Add: #7 Brother Bird 4-1 3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD) Best Value: #5 Close Encounter 8-1 Most Likely: #4 Hot Minute 4-5 Next Best: #8 Inherit the Gold 6-1 Exotics Use: #1e Serpe entry 5-1 4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Strong Commitment 5-2 Best Value: #6 Keep Thinking 5-1 Next Best: #8 Count Catamount 7-2 Super Add: #9 History Starts Now 12-1 5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Tawaared 4-1 Next Best: #9 Peace Wine 5-2 Best Value: #4 Captiva Pass 10-1 Super Add: #8 Tigresco 7-2 <$75 P4 Play: 2: 2-3-9 3: 4-5-8 4: 2-6 5: 3-4-8-9 3x3x2x4 = $72 6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) Start of carryover, and hard to accept that there isn't a first timer here that will be better than the obvious ones coming out of several races against each other. Even 30-1 Pappy's Double H (#7) may be OK and worth a glance after losing all chance early in his 7/11 debut that produced Hot Minute (4-5 fave in today's 3rd), and next out at Spa demolisher Al's Deputy (Schosberg). Other interesting numbers include #5 Marsh Haven (8-1), luring Ramon Dominguez who rarely rides for capable Charlton Baker, and bulleting #10 Saginaw (6-1) from Seth Benzel who has a plus ROI ($2.18) with firsters. Very tricky start to the P6... Best Value: #5 Marsh Haven 8-1 Most Likely: #6 African Knight 5-2 Next Best: #1e Levine entry 12-1 Exotics Use: #7 Pappy's Double H 30-1 7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) As usual for Empire breds at this distance and class, a tremendously well-matched group that makes for a wild wagering affair where you simply must demand value. #4 Globemaster (5-2) may very well win as Penna is on a remarkable roll and the Forbidden Apple gelding moved up nicely in his turf bow maiden-breaker last time. However, he is sure to be overbet and is not any faster or better coming in than many signed on. While Maragh is certainly capable, Dominguez notably sides with #6 Quiet On the Tee (3-1) who is also just OK. #3 Tobruk (5-1) from My Man Sciacca and Crazy Phil Marcantonio, is a hard luck gelding that is always competitive but constantly falling short. Another tough set in the 2nd leg of the C/O sextet, and a great spot to swing for the fences.. Best Value: #1 Fortissi More 8-1 Priced Right: #2 Munition 8-1 Next Best: #5 Dos Hombres 12-1 Super Add: #8 Prince Dubai 15-1 8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Stroll for Acure 7-2 Best Value: #8 Key Victory 20-1 Next Best: #4 Good Question 6-1 Super Add: #10 Spartan King 6-1 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Outstanding ALW group.. Most Likely: #5 Thabazimbi 3-1 Best Value: #2 Rocket Legs 12-1 Next Best: #3 Lease of Life 5-1 Super Add: #8 Independant George 8-1 10th: 35th Sword Dancer (Gr. I), 12f-IT (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Grand Couturier 3-1 Best Value: #3 Lauro 10-1 Next Best: #10 Musketier 6-1 Super Add: #5 Rising Moon 12-1 11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #6 Whirlwind Poppy 3-1 Best Value: #4 Urbano 20-1 Next Best: #7 Brazen Kat 6-1 Super Add: #1 (POE) Spa City Fever 20-1 $200 P6 Play: Brutally tough sequence.. 6: 1-4-5-6-7-9 7: 1-2 8: 2-4 9: 5 10: 1-3 11: 1-6 6x2x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$100 P4 Play: 8: 2-4 9: 2-5 10: 1-3-5-6-10 11: 1-4-5-6-7 2x2x5x5 = $100 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-15-2009 at 11:37 AM. 
|
|
#3
08-15-2009, 10:26 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Capital Otb just said the Baffert in race 2 is scratched.
Last edited by Kasept : 08-15-2009 at 10:59 AM.
|
|
#4
08-15-2009, 11:00 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
#1 Fuhrever Dancing (POE from Gullo) is out too as #1a Hurricane Heat goes.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#5
08-15-2009, 11:02 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Thanks Steve.
|
|
#6
08-15-2009, 11:20 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
1ST
1 (poe) Fuhrever Dancing 5 Gimmearoutine 2ND 5 Bulldogger 3RD 7 Her Latest Flame 7TH 10 Gamblin Fever 12 Hoist the Gala 13 Longing for Malibu 8TH 11 Brown's Hill 9TH 11 Ea 12 Even Raise 13 Mr. Unstoppable 11TH 1A Ryan and Jack 2 Don't You Linger 11 Nugget of Wisdom 13 Bullstar 14 Silveroo
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#8
08-15-2009, 02:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#10
08-15-2009, 01:53 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Saratoga Race 3
I wonder where these horses are running? These are definitely from another race. Here are my picks for Steve. 3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f Best Value: #5 Pressure Point 5-1 Most Likely: #6 BZ Warrior 7-2 Next Best: #8 All the Bases 12-1 Exotics Use: #2 John Kelly 3-1 My BAD!!!! my picks are for Sunday. WOo this heat is getting to me.
|
Hybrid Mode
