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#1
09-17-2009, 08:42 AM
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9/17: Belmont Park ($30k C/O)
Belmont card played out very much as anticipated Wednesday, proving tricky as can be with series of pricey winners triggering $30k carryover for Thursday. While there was no getting to the bulbous $14,000+ late P4, I was pleased to identify 3 opportunities where good opinions on overlays yielded lucrative results that easily carried the day.
First, 'long look' recommend Pletcher's Whydah went off even higher than the 8-1 ML paying a fat $21.20 in the 5th. And it got better when Toner's include tab La Clouche (15-2) got up second for the $77.25 exacta. Minutes later, Best Value top choice Tinto (24-1) just fell short of getting into the exacta, but tripped a $482.50 tri ($1) with 15-1 surprise winner Smarty Karakorum (Super Add) and even money fave Graceful Afleet (Most Likely) second. Finally in the nightcap, Best Value try Exton, another 24-1 bomber, rallied to just a head shy of a big score, though the $15.80 second money more than covered the W-PL investment on him. So despite not coming close on the quad, it was a very good day. Hope you did well! Exceedingly hard sequence for the carryover Thursday, so let's try to not give back Wednesday's earnings... BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 (POE) Shrimp Dancer 5-2 WON Best Value: #7 Saver Dude 10-1 12th Next Best: #10 Supreme Serene 8-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Bishop of Nola 3-1 2nd 5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #9 Run to Grand Ave. 3-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Rapide One 12-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Mocha Springs 6-1 7th Exotics Use: #3 Cavello 15-1 4th 6th: CLN, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Swinging Bernie 2-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Xodo 20-1 6th Next Best: #6 Midnite Silver 6-1 WON Super Add: #5 Right of Way 6-1 8th 7th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Redefined 9-5 WON Best Value: #3 Can't Refuse 12-1 6th Next Best: #2 Five Towns 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Be Bullish 15-1 2nd 8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Fateh Field 4-1 WON Next Best: #4 Peace Wine 9-2 6th Best Value: #8 Charlott Humor 10-1 9th Super Add: #4 Wall Street Wonder 7-2 3rd 9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super) Best Value: #1 Comeback 4-1 5th Most Likely: #8 Jazz Hands 7-2 WON Next Best: #2 Catch the Bottom 5-1 4th Super Add: #7 Frenchonionsoup 3-1 2nd <$200 P6 Play: 4: 3-7 5: 3-4-6-9 6: 2-3 7: 6 8: 4-9 9: 1-2-8 2x4x2x1x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-3-4-5-6-10 7: 6 8: 4-8-9 9: 1-2-7-8 6x1x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 Pays $183 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 09-17-2009 at 05:26 PM. 
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#2
09-17-2009, 10:21 AM
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No school today, GAS LEAK.... I will be playing a bit of Belmont.
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#3
09-17-2009, 10:38 AM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#7
09-17-2009, 10:42 AM
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#8
09-17-2009, 10:37 AM
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I can't, for the life of me, figure out what to do with Xodo. Faced a couple nice ones out West this spring (Misremembered won the G2 Swaps, Oil Man won a G3 and finished 5th in the G2 Del Mar Derby).
He never lifted a foot over the soft going on 8/22, so tossing that race. Saved ground just about every step of the way on 9/6 and made a decent move turning for home before encountering a little bit of trouble. Not sure if he is gonna get the pace he needs today to become a threat on the win end, but I may fool with him a litle bit underneath in some exactas if the price is there. Looks like Rajiv may try and steal this one on the front end.
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#9
09-17-2009, 11:27 AM
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Minor changes... Fast and Firm...
4TH 1A Luminesce Early 5TH 1 (poe) True Success Early 2 Idol Image Early 7 Sequoya Mountain Early 7TH 1X Ziptronic Early 9 Afrikaner Early 10 Executive Search Early 8TH 5 Lemon Shore Early 10 Driven by Royal Early 12 Banking Holiday Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
09-17-2009, 05:27 PM
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#16
09-17-2009, 05:47 PM
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Peace Wine was a major disappointment today.
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#17
09-17-2009, 05:48 PM
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#18
09-17-2009, 07:00 PM
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#20
09-18-2009, 02:10 PM
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After coming in a troubled 4th in the 4th race I'd put Fortunate Run on your list for his next race. A nice pick for the exotics was dirt to turf Be Bullish, stakes placed on turf . An overlay in this one. After a couple of races with gate problems he started this one cleanly and he carried on nicely for a solid 2nd.
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