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#1
11-04-2009, 06:13 PM
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Zenyatta
There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.
Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday. Mine That Bird (28/1) Colonel John (26/1) Summer Bird (7.4-to-1) Zenyatta (3.1-to-1) Twice Over (15/1) Richard's Kid (21/1) Gio Ponti (15/1) Einstein (26/1) Girolamo (39/1) Rip Van Winkle (2/1) Regal Ransom (39/1) Quality Road (12/1) Awesome Gem (74/1) 
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#2
11-04-2009, 08:01 PM
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#3
11-04-2009, 08:55 PM
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I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.
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#4
11-05-2009, 09:44 PM
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#5
11-06-2009, 02:42 AM
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If LIS and LH run a dominant 1-2 in that order .. I think it makes Zenyatta a little harder to strongly oppose. However .. if LIS and LH both are soundly beaten and off the board ... I think it really takes some steam away from the rabid argument that Zenyatta's recent form looks markedly worse than it actually is. I've had a lot of success over the years adjusting my opinion in situations like this. If you don't buy into it... that's fine with me. There's a lot of things I buy into even more kooky than something like that.
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#6
11-06-2009, 05:41 AM
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zenyatta will lose.....
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#7
11-06-2009, 07:00 PM
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__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#8
11-06-2009, 07:05 PM
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Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.
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#9
11-06-2009, 07:12 PM
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__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
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#10
11-06-2009, 07:16 PM
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Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#11
11-06-2009, 08:17 PM
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#12
11-06-2009, 08:58 PM
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I posted the following a week or so ago ... Quote:
I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts. However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago. Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin. All in all ... I think we learned for certain.. * That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace. * We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races. What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today. I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her. Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.
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#13
11-07-2009, 03:39 AM
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Santa Anita has always been her favorite track. She was practically unbeatable at Santa Anita during the winter/spring meet. She regressed a little bit at Hollywood and at Del Mar she went way down hill. She trained really poorly down there and didn't like the track at all. One of my best friends is good friends with Wygod. Going into her last race, I asked him how she was doing because I know that she is a much better filly at Santa Anita. He said she was doing a little better but still had not fully recuperated from Del Mar and was not doing nearly as well as earlier in the year. She didn't end up running particularly well that day. At that point I would have given her very little chance today. But I saw her work the other day and I thought she worked great. So I called my friend again to ask him if they thought the filly had moved forward since that last race. He told me that she had moved way forward since her last race and was training like her old self again. That's why I bet her today. I don't think the pace had anything to do with her win today. Don't get me wrong, a fast pace certainly makes things easier for her but she doesn't have to have a fast pace to win. If you look at her winning races, you will see that when she fires, she comes home extremely fast. At Santa Anita earlier in the year, in the El Encino she came from dead last on a :50 half-mile and won. She ran her final 1/8th of a mile in :11 1/5 that day. She didn't have that explosive kick in her last race. In her last race, they went the half in :49 2/5, which was a similar pace to the El Encino, yet in her last race she only came home in around :12 2/5 or so. She just wasn't the same horse that day. And that's not really a big surprise. The connections said that she wasn't training great going into that race. Yet going into today's race, they said she was training great, like her old self.
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#14
11-04-2009, 10:51 PM
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#16
11-04-2009, 10:56 PM
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#17
11-05-2009, 06:25 AM
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Still very little liquidity... unless you hate Zenyatta chances at the 3.4-to-3.8 odds range.
 Numbers are win odds +1. Back is to win. Lay is to bet against winning.
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#18
11-05-2009, 11:41 AM
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How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?
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#19
11-05-2009, 11:46 AM
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#20
11-05-2009, 11:47 AM
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we NEED Betfair in this country.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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