Jockey Bet

[philcski]

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

[hockey2315]

I agree that the field is the way to go, but I'm not sure how hard it'll get bet. People are going to want to cheer for their favorite jockey - it's the type of thing where betting the field kind of takes the novelty out of it. 6-1+ on the field seems like a ton of value, but beware of a tiny pool size.

[Travis Stone]

The wager has been under-promoted and under-publicized.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

You think people will really bet something just because Steven Crist said its the way to go? Enough people to make a dent in the pools? Especially something this trivial?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

You think people will really bet something just because Steven Crist said its the way to go? Enough people to make a dent in the pools? Especially something this trivial?

Yes- because the pool size will struggle to reach 5 digits. If his comments add $2,000 to the field, let's say there was $10K in the pool before that and the field was exactly at the morning line 8-1 at the post (so $930 on the field), there's now $12K in the pool and the new price is 5/2. Make sense now?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yes- because the pool size will struggle to reach 5 digits. If his comments add $2,000 to the field, let's say there was $10K in the pool before that and the field was exactly at the morning line 8-1 at the post (so $930 on the field), there's now $12K in the pool and the new price is 5/2. Make sense now?

Yes, I get it... but dont forget you can't make this bet in NY and thats where most of his followers live and wager. I doubt very much people in NY will make the kind of effort needed to leave the state to make such a trivial bet when you have all the BC races to wager into. I still find it weird people would make a bet solely on one person's opinion. Totally takes all the fun of it away.

I didnt like this bet at first but its kind of a neat idea. If I were to play, I would definetely bet John Velasquez. Hes got all the Pletcher horses and many are very live, albeit they would be much better if this wasnt being run on fake dirt.

[NavalOrange]

Does NY include all OTB? Capital OTB website has a link to information on the bet.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by NavalOrange

Does NY include all OTB?

Yes.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

Yes, I get it... but dont forget you can't make this bet in NY and thats where most of his followers live and wager. I doubt very much people in NY will make the kind of effort needed to leave the state to make such a trivial bet when you have all the BC races to wager into. I still find it weird people would make a bet solely on one person's opinion. Totally takes all the fun of it away.

I didnt like this bet at first but its kind of a neat idea. If I were to play, I would definetely bet John Velasquez. Hes got all the Pletcher horses and many are very live, albeit they would be much better if this wasnt being run on fake dirt.

I didn't like it at first either until I thought about it for a while and did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are. You are correct about NY not having the bet (assuming the racing & wagering board didn't have time to approve it) but I think he's got followers everywhere, he's the most influential writer in the game.

Ex-New Yorkers live everywhere, by the way

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

I didn't like it at first either until I thought about it for a while and did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are. You are correct about NY not having the bet (assuming the racing & wagering board didn't have time to approve it) but I think he's got followers everywhere, he's the most influential writer in the game.

Ex-New Yorkers live everywhere, by the way

Ya, hes a great writer and super nice guy. Met him a few times up here, once at a book signing at Borders and the other while I was out running and he was walking his dog.

I am surprised Ramon Dominguez doesnt have more mounts than he does. Hes riding 2 Ramsey horses, and another Ramsey horse is an AE. Then he has Gio Ponti. So that makes a total possible of 4, two of which look very live.

Not saying this just because I live here, but he's really an awesome jockey.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by philcski

did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are.

I was always excited about this bet, but thought I was going to have to do later tonight what I now find Crist did for me. Thanks for the link and thank you Mr. Crist! And you philcski.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by philcski

the pool size will struggle to reach 5 digits.

surprisingly there is $59,945 with 30 minutes to go

not so surprisingly 9/5 on "all others"

[randallscott35]

any final on this, I can''t find the pool

[slotdirt]

THink the pool was around $116k, with the field the 9/5 favorite.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

So you go and start a thread to draw more attention to it?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So you go and start a thread to draw more attention to it?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

Winner... at $5.60. Handle was much, much higher than I guessed, at $117k.

Sniper and I discussed this after the Cup and we thought that it would be a lot more intriguing if they had the field as individuals, i.e. if Joe Talamo is part of the field and he wins 2 races and Pelsier is also part of the field and wins 1, the field score is 2- so the maximum number of wins for all the jockeys in the field. Therefore the individual wagering interests have a much better chance of actually winning (under this scenario Julien Leparoux would have been the winner this year.)

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

Winner... at $5.60. Handle was much, much higher than I guessed, at $117k.

Sniper and I discussed this after the Cup and we thought that it would be a lot more intriguing if they had the field as individuals, i.e. if Joe Talamo is part of the field and he wins 2 races and Pelsier is also part of the field and wins 1, the field score is 2- so the maximum number of wins for all the jockeys in the field. Therefore the individual wagering interests have a much better chance of actually winning (under this scenario Julien Leparoux would have been the winner this year.)

Thanks Philly. This was a great bet!