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#1
11-12-2009, 08:15 AM
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11/12: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill ($30k C/O)
Fun start to the week with good racing and some solid hits. P4's and Churchill carryover tries were short, but $300+ triple and $100+ saver P3 to close Louisville punts put the day right. The big opportunity on the afternoon was the Big A quad which paid a bulbous $2,100+. The singling of Mott-Dominguez feature flop Sky's the Limit (1-2!) was the culprit in the miss, and stung particularly when my Best Value second choice (Rodman) romped home at $12.
I pressed action at Churchill because there was a similar opening in the late stages at Aqueduct of which I didn't take advantage. I failed to bet Rodman straight, didn't have a late P3 play going ($187.50), and didn't play the selections in the nightcap tri ($112.50). Uggh... Got out OK for the day though as cited, and hope you did alright too. Carryover reached $30k+ at Churchill for today, and Aqueduct has a challenging sequence worth trying. AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Working Class Hero 6-5 4th Best Value: #9 Lion's Lair 5-1 8th Next Best: #4 Call Tiger 8-1 WON Super Add: #5 Trusting Heart 15-1 7th 7th: The Sabin, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Scratches allow prominent players Cable and Diamond Dina to get in.. Most Likely: #8 Sea Chanter 3-1 WON Next Best: #12 Cable 7-2 6th Best Value: #9 Always for Love 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #7 Sunshine for Life 5-1 8th 8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Base Commander 3-1 WON Next Best: #7 Gone Missing 6-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Mr. Madison 8-1 4th Super Add: #9 Mr. Unstoppable 10-1 3rd $2 Exacta (5-7) Paid $26.60 $2 Trifecta (5-7-9) Paid $158.50 $1 Superfecta (5-7-9-3) Paid $644.00 9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #7 Great Gracie Dane 7-2 WON Best Value: #1 Foof's Melody 12-1 5th Next Best: #12 Holy Moly 5-1 4th Super Add: #4 Every Little Thing 6-1 8th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-4-5-9 7: 8-9-12 8: 5-7 9: 1-7-12 4x3x2x3 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (4-8-5-7) Paid $414.50 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 5th: CLM, 2yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Proud Expression 5-1 8th Best Value: #6 Phil the Thrill 10-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Girl Bar 5-2 WON Super Add: #2 Mis Pardner Rules 5-1 6th 6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 The Right Face 4-1 Best Value: #4 Linebacker 8-1 4th Next Best: #10 Hidden Bay 5-1 WON Super Add: #1 Keepinonestepahead 6-1 2nd 7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Cosmic Transit 3-1 9th Best Value: #6 Nehru 12-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Sporty 10-1 4th Super Add: #7 Greytap 8-1 6th 8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Honchis'n Ponchis 10-1 WON Most Likely: #11 Film Charm 5-2 3rd Next Best: #1 Sweetest Song 3-1 4th Super Add: #5 Argyle Pink 3-1 7th 9th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Libor Lady 2-1 WON Best Value: #2 Don'ttalktome 5-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Taletobetold 4-1 Super Add: #9 Dee's Rose 15-1 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #3 Malibu Martini 5-2 2nd Best Value: #12 Chaffee John 15-1 3rd Next Best: #11 Snuck By 8-1 9th Exotics Use: #5 Crazy Coyote 9-2 6th High 5 Play: #13 Hyrule 10-1 4th <$200 P6 Play: 5: 6-9 6: 3-4 7: 1-4-6-7 8: 1-3-11 9: 2-5 10: 3 2x2x4x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-4-6-7 8: 1-3-11 9: 2-5-10 10: 3-5-11-12 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-12-2009 at 05:26 PM. 
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#2
11-12-2009, 12:25 PM
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AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp 7TH 2 Maddy's Heart Early 5 Dattts Our Girl Early 10 Little B Rosson Early 13 Wonderwho'sbest Early 14 Yet Again Early 8TH 1 (poe) Courting Wisdom Early 9TH 1A Count Her In Early 9 Precious Penny Early 11 Northern Warrior Early 13 Downtown Hottie Early 14 Freud's Notebook Early 15 Nurse Dolce Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
11-12-2009, 12:28 PM
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NOTE: #11 Diamond Dina (4-1) and #12 Cable (7-2) DRAW INTO Aqueduct 7th race...
Clement firster #12 Holy Moly (5-1) DRAWS INTO Aqueduct 9th race...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
11-12-2009, 12:43 PM
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CD SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS - SEVEN-DAY CARRYOVER $30,534 Jockey Change #1 Fair Oak - Israel Ocampo Overweight #2 Miss Pardner Rules +1 SCRATCH #4 Rib Mountain Overweight #5 Girl Bar +1 RACE 6 NO CHANGES RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER) SCRATCH #2 Donegal's Pride RACE 8 SCRATCH #2 Sweet Gladys SCRATCH #6 Embellished Gold RACE 9 SCRATCH AE #11 Ten Lil Indians (entered for main track only) RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5 - CARRYOVER $5,609 Late Workout #6 G Areyoukidding - Oct. 24, Turfway Park, 4F in :50 1/5, breezing SCRATCH #8 Extreme Warrior Late Workout #11 Snuck By - Nov. 7, Ellis Park, 4F in :49, breezing AE #13 Hyrule will run Jockey Change #13 Hyrule - Israel Ocampo Late Workout #13 Hyrule - Nov. 7, Turfway Park, 4F in :50, breezing SCRATCH AE #14 Joe Six Pack
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
11-12-2009, 03:24 PM
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The 4 in the 6th could prove very valuable in the pick 4. A ton of tickets hit the floor with that piece o' junk favorite- the double to Sea Chanter paid $92.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#7
11-12-2009, 05:28 PM
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Carryover Pool $51,506
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
11-12-2009, 05:51 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
11-12-2009, 09:12 PM
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Great job at the Big A today SB!!!!!!!!!Made threefold error by at the last moment excluding $98 horse @CD, costing me two juicy pk3s, and by not sending in my pk4 at Aqueduct which had many key components of your selections which obviously hit. I hate it when real work screws up my concentration!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Uggh
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#11
11-13-2009, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
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#12
11-13-2009, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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