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#1
02-20-2010, 05:13 AM
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2/20: GP (5th-11th); Magna 5; FG (6th-11th); OP (Southwest)
ANOTHER BIG WEEKEND:Wonderful afternoon in store for racing fans Saturday as Derby Trail action comes into focus with the Hutcheson, Fountain of Youth, Risen Star, rescheduled Southwest and El Camino Real Derby all on tap. Magna 5 opportunity should be a little more lucrative this week after a tiny payout in the opener, and all stakes P4's at New Orleans and Hallandale have potential to provide fireworks.
A SURE SIGN OF SPRING! The fun Road to the Roses contest starts today, and if you want to jump into a league, feel free to add your stable to the Derby Trail (and ATR) group. Prizes to the Top 5 finishers... DT/ATR RTTR League League Name: DerbyTrail.com League Identifier: 296565368 Activation Code: 3881894580 LLOYDOBLER STRETCHES OUT: Early part of the day will have Dee Tee Stables partners excited as Lloydobler makes his second career start at Aqueduct stretching out to a mile versus a nice group that have faced some well-regarded sophomores. Chucky Lopez rides back in the 2nd half of the opening Big A double, with the wide-blazed Smarty Jones colt the 6-1 fourth choice in the field of 8. Pace will be a key factor for the stalker-closer's potential in the event, as there isn't a clear indication of who in the group will be eager for the lead. Thanks to the partners, Gary Sciacca and Chuck Simon for making it possible, and to Gary's long time assistant Paul Barone and Lloyd's groom Javier who has been with the Sciacca barn nearly 15 years, for their tireless efforts. Here's to a safe trip for Lloyd & CC. GULFSTREAM PARK POST-SCRATCHES 5th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Rock America 6-1 3rd Most Likely: #7 Big Shot 3-1 2nd Next Best: #11 Michael Rules 8-1 6th Super Add: #10 Dreaming Blue 6-1 9th 6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 (POE) Scary Good 6-1 5th Best Value: #5 Unbridled Fury 10-1 WON Next Best: #9 Cavin Caden 4-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Farmer Jones 10-1 9th 7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Dreamed to Dream 15-1 5th Most Likely: #11 Caminadora 4-1 4th Next Best: #7 Charlotte Apples 5-2 WON Super Add: #3 Sun Pennies 8-1 3rd 8th: 57th Hutcheson (G2), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super) #1 Radiohead a likely SCR per DRF's Mike Welsch on ATR Friday.. Most Likely: #7 D' Funnybone 2-1 WON Best Value: #2 City Trooper 15-1 5th Next Best: #8 A Little Warm 3-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Hear Ye Hear Ye 8-1 4th 9th: 44th Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T @ 72' (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Courageous Cat 5-2 WON Best Value: #8 Rahy's Attorney 6-1 9th Next Best: #2 Mambo Meister 6-1 8th Super Add: #4 Jet Propulsion 4-1 4th 10th: 64th Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Will consider protecting #2 Buddy's Saint in Magna 5 and P4 but play against within race. Bruce Levine has lost a lot of NY business (Repole, Moss) bringing this dual G2 winning Derby Trail prospect to FL, so it's hard to believe he doesn't think Saint Liam bay is authentic. Still needs to prove something to me though having bested little and with one turn Nashua his only 'fast' race. Rooting for sake of hard-working Levine; leaning elsewhere with hard-earned money.. Most Likely: #8 Eskendereya (5-1): Sharp in one turn soph bow; Expect top effort.. WON Next Best: #5 Jackson Bend (5-2): LaPenta buy likely tighter now than in last.. 2nd Best Value: #1 Aikenite (6-1): Dogwood-Pletcher colt was too close to Holy Bull pace.. 3rd Super Add: #6 Prince Will I Am (30-1): Nihei striking while hot; 2nd to Drosselmeyer (Risen Star).. 8th 11th: 25th Honey Fox (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-T (Super) Best Value: #7 Bluegrass Princess 8-1 9th Most Likely: #13 Quiet Harbor 6-1 2nd Next Best: #8 Cherokee Queen 8-1 6th Super Add: #2 Backseat Rhythm 12-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 8: 2-3-6-7-8 9: 7-8 10: 1-5-8 11: 2-4-7-8-13 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 MAGNA 5 PRE-SCRATCHES LEG A-LRL 10th (4:53pm): OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 7f (Super) Most Likely: #4 Tidal Change 5-2 2nd Next Best: #1 Lady in the Money 4-1 5th Best Value: #5 Blue Diamond Allie 9-2 4th Super Add: #9 Halo's Rumble 3-1 WON LEG B-GP 9th: 44th Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T @ 72' (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Courageous Cat 5-2 WON Best Value: #8 Rahy's Attorney 6-1 9th Next Best: #2 Mambo Meister 6-1 8th Super Add: #4 Jet Propulsion 4-1 4th LEG C-SA 4th: S/ALW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Precious Duke 2-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Forthreeforeuclid 5-2 WON Best Value: #3 Good Turn 9-2 6th LEG D-GP 10th: 64th Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Will protect with #2 Buddy's Saint in Magna 5 and P4 but play against within race.. Most Likely: #8 Eskendereya (5-1): Sharp in one turn soph bow; Expect top effort.. WON Next Best: #5 Jackson Bend (5-2): LaPenta buy likely tighter now than in last.. 2nd Best Value: #1 Aikenite (6-1): Dogwood-Pletcher colt was too close to Holy Bull pace.. 3rd Super Add: #6 Prince Will I Am (30-1): Nihei striking while hot; 2nd to Drosselmeyer (Risen Star).. 8th LEG E-SA 5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Fyvio 3-1 5th Best Value: #3 Fandino 6-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Face and an Ace 9-2 WON Super Add: #1 Rock Solid King 8-1 8th $36-$72-$144 Magna 5 Plays: A: 1-4-5 B: 7 (8) C: 4-5 D: 1-5-8 E: 3-8 (1-6) 3x1x2x3x2 = $36 3x2x2x3x2 = $72 3x2x2x3x4 = $144 FAIR GROUNDS POST-SCRATCHES 6th: 44th Pan Zareta, F&M-4+, 6f (P3) Most Likely: #5 Dubai Majesty 8-5 2nd Next Best: #1 Coy Cat 9-2 3rd 7th: 23rd Colonel Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #2 Chamberlain Bridge 9-5 WON Next Best: #5 Grand Traverse 4-1 7th Best Value: #9 Turfiste 8-1 9th Super Add: #1e Margolis entry 8-1 4th/8th 8th: 29th Silverbulletday (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3) Most Likely: #1 Quiet Temper 2-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Bella Medaglia 7-2 4th Next Best: #6 Devil May Care 8-5 5th 9th: 23rd Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, Super) DRF's Marcus Hersch indicates Giant Oak is more likely for the main track event.. Best Value: #4 Blues Street 6-1 WON Most Likely: #6 Acting Zippy 4-1 8th Next Best: #9 Get Rich Quick 10-1 7th Super Add: #1 Baltimore Bob 8-1 3rd 10th: 37th Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super) Best Value: #4 Discreetly Mine (5-1): Robsham Discreet Cat sib being under-estimated.. WON Most Likely: #6 Drosselmeyer (4-1): Like WinStar's Eskenderaya, found niche off turf.. 4th Next Best: #9 Stay Put (8-1): Improving for hot Margolis, but may not get set-up.. 5th Super Add: #11 Ron the Greek (3-1): Like Stay Put, Lecomte winner may lack pace to chase.. 6th <$50 P4 Play: 7: 2-5-9 8: 1-4-5-6-7 9: 4-6 10: 4-6-9 3x5x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45 $.50 Pick 4 (2/4-7-2/4-4) 4 Correct Paid $156.35 11th: 25th Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3) Best Value: #4 Stonehouse 12-1 WON Most Likely: #2 Friesan Fire 7-5 4th Next Best: #6 Good and Lucky 8-1 5th $1 Pick 3 (4-4-4) 3 Correct Paid $183.80 OAKLAWN PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 10th: 45th Southwest (G3), 3yo, 1m (Super) Most Likely: #3 Dublin (5-1): Lukas Hopeful winner seems set for return to form.. 2nd Next Best: #6 Cool Bullet (6-1): Wide throughout Lecomte in 2 turn debut.. 8th Best Value: #10 Mission Impazible (15-1): Redraw hurt; Stalks/goes on stretchout.. 4th Super Add: #2 Pleasant Storm (8-1): Closing Tap Okie developing; Gets a target.. 7th Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 02-21-2010 at 06:07 AM. 
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#2
02-20-2010, 07:21 AM
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I like Stay Put and Discreetly Mine too. (that could be a bad thing
 ) I really thought Quiet Temper was going to be a decent filly until her last...not sure what to do with her today. Most importantly, good luck to you all with Lloyd!
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#4
02-20-2010, 11:04 AM
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GP SCR/CHG's:
Race 5 #12 Marching Tune Race 6 #13 Bushwhacked, #14 Gothics Peak, #15 Walt's Whiz, #1A Miner's Reserve Race 7 #5 Tres Leches, #9 Itsagiantcauseway, #12 Future Heiress Race 8 #1 Radiohead (GB) Race 9 #10 Dream Maestro Race 11 #12 Afternoon Stroll, #15 Our Dahlia
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 02-20-2010 at 12:25 PM.
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#5
02-20-2010, 12:18 PM
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FG SCR'S
Race 6 #2 Juliet's Spirit, #3 Four Gifts Race 7 #4 Written in Stone Race 8 #2 The Rumor's True Race 9 #2 Giant Oak
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
02-20-2010, 12:52 PM
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really like #3 rock america in the 5th at gulf
late pick 4 $4.00 pick 4: 7 with 3,4 with 2 with 4,6,7 $24.00 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 7 with 2 with 4,6,7 $3.00 $3.00 pick 4: 7 with 3,4 with 8 with 4,6,7 $18.00 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 7 with 8 with 4,6,7 $3.00 Total: $48.00
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#8
02-21-2010, 03:05 PM
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Steve,
Hope you see this. The analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes on atr led to a riight on prediction. The negativity on Levines horse was just as important as the actual selections thanks for leading me in the right direction on that one. But please tell me this what led you to pick Stonehouse on top yesterday, a fanastic payoff in a short field but I would never have figured that out and I love longshots. I would love to hear about that one.
__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere "
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#9
02-21-2010, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Thanks for the note! Glad you benefited from the ATR conversation(s) and opinions. Anyone who listens regularly has cashed tickets with the kind of info Mike Welsch, Jay Privman, Rick Hammerle, Brad Free, et al, deliver on the Friday Preview Show (or any time guys like them visit)...
As for Stonehouse, he jumped off the page as a horse sitting on big effort at a track and distance where he's put up his best races; was sure to get an ideal stalking trip behind the potentially dueling favorites; got 5-6 pounds from the top choices; was certain to be overlaid in the short field. In essence, in what looked like an unbettable race, he was at 12-1 or more what you wanted in the P3, as a win bet, or exotic key. Have to admit that my reaction while watching the race in the tiny Gulfstream 'press box' was inappropriate.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 02-21-2010 at 04:21 PM.
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