Steve Davidowitz' Pool#1 Exacta Plays explained

[StevenLD]

Just to be clear after two prior discussions on the air, here are my $10 and $6 Exacta probables for Pool #1.

#10 = ESKENDERAYA. . .#24 = ALL OTHERS, (a loaded group this year; that includes CARACORTADO; SIDNEY'S CANDY, LENTENOR, SETSUKO, BLIND LUCK, D'FUNNYBONE, DISCREETLY MINE; plus many others still in the game at this point).
#6 = DAVE IN DIXIE;
#7 = DROSSELMEYER;
#12 = LOOKIN AT LUCKY

$10 units:
10-6 = $1,380.40 X 5 = $6902, (A very reasonable outcome, with extraordinary potential value.)
10-7 = $463.60 X 5 = $2318 (Not likely, but not impossible)
10-24= $162.60 X 5 = $813 (Very reasonable outcome)

24-6= $172.20 X 5 =$861 (Very reasonable outcome)
24-7 = $114.80 X 5 =$574 (Not impossible)
24-10 = $120.40X 5 = $602 (A reasonable outcome)

$6 saver units.
10-12 = $354.60 X 3 = $1063.80 (The most reasonable outcome of all at this point, with OK value)
24-12 =$51.20 X 3 = $153.60 (Very reasonable outcome, with modest 200+ % total return on $72 investment),
------------------------------------------------
Total cost for all eight exacta combinations = $72.

Win or lose, a very promising Futures Book investment.

Last year: I bet #24 'All Others' for $400 and on race day, among several exotic plays, I bet $600 on Pioneerofthe Nile. . . .As you know #24 (Mine That Bird) won and paid for the Pioneerof the Nile win bet. . .'Bird' was a horse I could not have bet with your money in any win pool whatsoever.
----------------------------------------------------- ------------------
Bottom line after Saturday, Feb. 20 prep races:
The natural 10 furlong router ESKENDEREYA (who posted even fractions all the way through the nine furlongs Saturday and looked like a 2:01-type-1-1/4 mile horse), has all the talent he needs to win the Kentucky Derby.
But, Todd Pletcher must back off a touch while training this colt for the Florida Derby. He must not follow his historic pattern of winning prep races; he should study how Nafzger did it. TWICE. Pletcher must leave some room for improvement during the final few weeks.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

Just to be clear after two prior discussions on the air, here are my $10 and $6 Exacta probables for Pool #1.

#10 = ESKENDERAYA. . .#24 = ALL OTHERS, (a loaded group this year; that includes CARACORTADO; SIDNEY'S CANDY, LENTENOR, SETSUKO, BLIND LUCK, D'FUNNYBONE, DISCREETLY MINE; plus many others still in the game at this point).
#6 = DAVE IN DIXIE;
#7 = DROSSELMEYER;
#12 = LOOKIN AT LUCKY

$10 units:
10-6 = $1,380.40 X 5 = $6902, (A very reasonable outcome, with extraordinary potential value.)
10-7 = $463.60 X 5 = $2318 (Not likely, but not impossible)
10-24= $162.60 X 5 = $813 (Very reasonable outcome)

24-6= $172.20 X 5 =$861 (Very reasonable outcome)
24-7 = $114.80 X 5 =$574 (Not impossible)
24-10 = $120.40X 5 = $602 (A reasonable outcome)

$6 saver units.
10-12 = $354.60 X 3 = $1063.80 (The most reasonable outcome of all at this point, with OK value)
24-12 =$51.20 X 3 = $153.60 (Very reasonable outcome, with modest 200+ % total return on $72 investment),
------------------------------------------------
Total cost for all eight exacta combinations = $72.

Win or lose, a very promising Futures Book investment.

Last year: I bet #24 'All Others' for $400 and on race day, among several exotic plays, I bet $600 on Pioneerofthe Nile. . . .As you know #24 (Mine That Bird) won and paid for the Pioneerof the Nile win bet. . .'Bird' was a horse I could not have bet with your money in any win pool whatsoever.
----------------------------------------------------- ------------------
Bottom line after Saturday, Feb. 20 prep races:
The natural 10 furlong router ESKENDEREYA (who posted even fractions all the way through the nine furlongs Saturday and looked like a 2:01-type-1-1/4 mile horse), has all the talent he needs to win the Kentucky Derby.
But, Todd Pletcher must back off a touch while training this colt for the Florida Derby. He must not follow his historic pattern of winning prep races; he should study how Nafzger did it. TWICE. Pletcher must leave some room for improvement during the final few weeks.

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

noone uses vale of york but does use lentenor..

[StevenLD]

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

you have to have thick skin to post on any internet site. Especially a horse racing site as its all based on opinions on races. Everyone thinks they know best.. and are only proven correct at the windows.

I didnt think the post you quoted was a personal shot.. it was a shot about your opinion. If your bet hits you get the last laugh. Everyone disagree's with each other.. human nature.

I'm sure your opinions on here will have value.. You have proven to be a solid handicapper.. but everyone gets a little heat here or there.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

Beyond mild Steve, but thicker skin is required to post here in general (See Vic). I very much like the approach you take to making tickets. It is interesting...I'm simply saying I got a vibe in your post that Esken has a better opportunity in the Derby than I think he does. 9 panels at a track like GP which Esken is obviously likes is far different from 10 at CD without a dream trip like the other day....Besides, Pletcher's problems in the Derby and at CD in general in graded stakes has been well documented by DrugS and others.

[StevenLD]

Thick skin certainly is required, I am sure. And make no mistake, this is not my first ride around the park. But, when someone tells me to "calm down" that was a personal shot that had nothing to do with the content of the post. If someone disagrees with the way I layed out the tickets, by all means say so. If someone doubts the quality of Eskenderaya's performance so be it. But "calm down" does not fit that bill. Again, I spelled out my misgivings about posting here and we'll see how it all works out.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

I, for one, greatly appreciate your insight. I think you'll find this site to be one of the best for informed and intelligent opinions and discussions once you cut through the abundant sarcasm.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

what do you expect? its a web site, with all kinds posting. half the time all they do is throw crap. (like monkeys) but who cares, don't let it bother you. what makes you think anythings changed in 15 years????? Hint: you can learn, "how not to handicap from half of the clowns, on here." it builds my confidence......lol

[chucklestheclown]

Golden. It is, however, a long wait at the window to cash the ticket before the train comes .