Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[Kasept]

AQU-Wood Memorial S (G1): Eskendereya 109 (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
AQU-Carter H (G1): Warrior's Reward 103 (I. Wilkes/J. Leparoux)
AQU-Bay Shore S (G3): Eightyfiveinafifty 100 (G. Contessa/R. Dominguez)
AQU-Excelsior S (G3): Goldsville 96 (M. Hushion/R. Dominguez)

SA-Santa Anita Derby (G1): Sidney's Candy 100 (J. Sadler/J. Talamo)
SA-Potrero Grande H (G2): Ventana 92 (B. Baffert/G. Gomez)
SA-Arcadia H (G2): Compari 95 (M. Jones/G. Gomez)
SA-Providencia S (G2): City to City 86 (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)
SA-Las Flores H (G3): Mona de Momma (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)

HAW-Illinois Derby (G3): American Lion 98 (E. Harty/D. Flores)
HAW-Cryptoclearance: Shadowbdancing 92 (T. Gore/E. Razo)

OP-Oaklawn H (G2): Duke of Mischief 107 (D. Fawkes/E. Coa)
OP-Fantasy S (G2): Blind Luck 104 (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano)

KEE-Central Bank Ashland S (G1): Evening Jewel 88 (J. Cassidy/K. Desormeaux)
KEE-Transylvania S (G3): Nordic Truce 90 (C. Clement/J. Leparoux)

GP-Skip Away S (G3): Arson Squad 101 (R. Dutrow/P. Lopez)
GP-Harmony Lodge H: Cassidys Pride 96 (M. Estevez/J. Lezcano)

WO-Debut S: Grazettes Landing 92 (M. Casse/P. Husbands)

TAM-OBS Sophomore S: Thank U Philippe 90 (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo)
TAM-L and D Farm Turf Distaff S: Closeout 91 (T. Proctor/J. Castanon)
TAM-Hilton Garden Inn Sprint S: Tommy's Memory 90 (A. Ryan/D. Amiss)
TAM Stonehedge Farm S. Soph Fillies S: Dances With Ashley 81 (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo)
TAM-Kinsman Turf Classic S: Picou 98 (C. Brown/E. Trujillo)
TAM-Sophomore Turf S: Thunder Brew 86 (A. Pecoraro/V. Lebron)

LRL-Primonetta S: All Giving 87 (F. Stites/H. Karamanos)

[tector]

So the Ashland graded out as horrible as it looked visually.

Blind Luck might be able to pull a Rachael on April 30.

[the_fat_man]

I'm as big a fan of Blink Luck as there is. And there's no denying that she's better than Evening Jewel (even though she was all out to beat that one last they met). But 16 Beyer points better? Now, there's a system that makes sense.

Question: what did these two run in terms of Beyer # last time they met?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm as big a fan of Blink Luck as there is. And there's no denying that she's better than Evening Jewel (even though she was all out to beat that one last they met). But 16 Beyer points better? Now, there's a system that makes sense.

Question: what did these two run in terms of Beyer # last time they met?

88's.

The Fantasy number appears to have been very easy to make.

Using Tidal Pool's 101 last out as the stick, Blind Luck's 2.5+ advantage is +4 points so a 104-105 makes perfect sense.

6.5 lengths from Tidal Pool back to No Such Word (92 in the Honeybee last) = 11 points, so the margins back up the last race and the current.

Is the difference in Blind Luck Friday at OP versus Blind Luck at DMR, SA and HOL all that tough to figure? There was a slight surface switch involved..

[the_fat_man]

So, she got that ridiculous setup last out and comes back to run what I'm assuming to be a significant new top, running the same type of race?

[tector]

Umm...Oaklawn has dirt. IWR, etc.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

88's.

The Fantasy number appears to have been very easy to make.

Using Tidal Pool's 101 last out as the stick, Blind Luck's 2.5+ advantage is +4 points so a 104-105 makes perfect sense.

6.5 lengths from Tidal Pool back to No Such Word (92 in the Honeybee last) = 11 points, so the margins back up the last race and the current.

Is the difference in Blind Luck Friday at OP versus Blind Luck at DMR, SA and HOL all that tough to figure? There was a slight surface switch involved..

Then, the 'reasonable' conclusion is that Blind Luck is 15 or so points FASTER on dirt than she is on POLY. Even though, once again, she ran the same type of race. Maybe it has something to do with BEYERS on POLY being USELESS. Think that might come into play at all?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Is the difference in Blind Luck Friday at OP versus Blind Luck at DMR, SA and HOL all that tough to figure? There was a slight surface switch involved..

I think the HOL#(93) versus the OP#(104) has a ton of personal bias involved. That 93 he gave out should of made him totally useless as a figure maker for racing west of the Rockies. He just can't do it. They're both huge efforts, and not 11 points apart. He just has no credibility when synthetics are involved. I don't agree with Fathead about her Anita races (she just doesn't like Pro-ride much,) but the Hollywood race is not 11 points worse than that Fantasy effort. That's just some common Eastern Bullsht. He has zero reason to change, because his friends will bend over backwards to destroy any opposition.