Oracle - Songster

[Scav]

He ran his number in his last race, not sure what the argument was with other people, I'll look it up later,just wanted to let you know

Originally Posted by Scav

He ran his number in his last race, not sure what the argument was with other people, I'll look it up later,just wanted to let you know

So you figure that Beyer is accurate huh? I highly doubt that Court Folly moved that far forward as compared to his most recent races. I also highly doubt that beating Too Much Bling gets you a one point slower number than losing to Court Folly. Its kind of far fetched. Unless you discount the fact that Court Folly was a complete nothing prior to his latest race. Which I simply cannot do.
Songster was on the track this morning. I didn't really see what he did though. I don't know if he breezed or if he just galloped.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

So you figure that Beyer is accurate huh? I highly doubt that Court Folly moved that far forward as compared to his most recent races. I also highly doubt that beating Too Much Bling gets you a one point slower number than losing to Court Folly. Its kind of far fetched. Unless you discount the fact that Court Folly was a complete nothing prior to his latest race. Which I simply cannot do.
Songster was on the track this morning. I didn't really see what he did though. I don't know if he breezed or if he just galloped.

I am talking about his TG number

Originally Posted by Scav

I am talking about his TG number

The only knock I have with any sheet numbers, and have always had, is that when there is a dead rail and you are wide like both of the top two finishers in the Amsterdam, you get credit for being wide when it is in fact a positive. Means you get credit for being wide even though it was indeed the place to be. The inverse is that if you are on a dead rail you don't get any path credit points even though you took the worst of it.
I would caution anyone betting the lats part of this meet and the early part of Belmont Fall to consult with charts and write down the days up here when the rail was no good and inside speed horses were compromised, you better have a lot of ink your pen because their were so damn many. And a few days where the bias was split because of rain that fell during the card or the inverse, when the track started wet and finished dry.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

The only knock I have with any sheet numbers, and have always had, is that when there is a dead rail and you are wide like both of the top two finishers in the Amsterdam, you get credit for being wide when it is in fact a positive. Means you get credit for being wide even though it was indeed the place to be. The inverse is that if you are on a dead rail you don't get any path credit points even though you took the worst of it.
I would caution anyone betting the lats part of this meet and the early part of Belmont Fall to consult with charts and write down the days up here when the rail was no good and inside speed horses were compromised, you better have a lot of ink your pen because their were so damn many. And a few days where the bias was split because of rain that fell during the card or the inverse, when the track started wet and finished dry.

This I agree with but TG is usually pretty dead on when the rail is dead, ESPECIALLY in NY, at least in my experience

Originally Posted by Scav

This I agree with but TG is usually pretty dead on when the rail is dead, ESPECIALLY in NY, at least in my experience

Whatever you say chief, all I know is that a horse who couldnt win allowance races beat a horse who beat Too Much Bling(who returned to another 500 grander in his next race). If you truly believe that Court Folly improved that much with no regression from the other horse, well good luck. So you must love Court Folly on Saturday then right? To at least get a piece of it?

I also think that Songster can upset Henny in the Kins Bishop. He was just dead short last time and if he fires his "a" race he can beat Henny. Hes kinda like the "Bluegrass Cat" of the King's Bishop.

[Scav]

"And I find it beyond incredible that anyone who claims to be an expert could say that the horse ran as well yesterday as he did in his prior races. I have no knowledge of his sheet numbers or Beyer from yesterday's race but its 1-9 that he takes a significant drop in figs on Rags, Thoro graph, and Beyer. To make it sound like he ran his typical race and simply got beaten to me is as far fetched as the tampa bay Devil rays winning the World Series this year.
"

"We simply disagree on that race. His opinion that Songster wasn't as good as advertised in general is one with merit that I happen to agree with. You may remember how gleeful I was when Bling got what I felt was a bad ride and I was lucky to have Songster get a perfect trip that day.
That certainly is a different issue however than the fact that the field he was facing yesterday was less than stellar to say the least. We disagree that he ran the same race as he had always run and I think that when the figs come out you will see that he droppewd severely on both sheet companies and on the beyers."

Ah and the one I was looking for

08-01-2006, 03:05 PM
oracle80
The Curragh Join Date: May 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 2,429

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

Originally Posted by Scav

"And I find it beyond incredible that anyone who claims to be an expert could say that the horse ran as well yesterday as he did in his prior races. I have no knowledge of his sheet numbers or Beyer from yesterday's race but its 1-9 that he takes a significant drop in figs on Rags, Thoro graph, and Beyer. To make it sound like he ran his typical race and simply got beaten to me is as far fetched as the tampa bay Devil rays winning the World Series this year.
"

"We simply disagree on that race. His opinion that Songster wasn't as good as advertised in general is one with merit that I happen to agree with. You may remember how gleeful I was when Bling got what I felt was a bad ride and I was lucky to have Songster get a perfect trip that day.
That certainly is a different issue however than the fact that the field he was facing yesterday was less than stellar to say the least. We disagree that he ran the same race as he had always run and I think that when the figs come out you will see that he droppewd severely on both sheet companies and on the beyers."

Ah and the one I was looking for

08-01-2006, 03:05 PM
oracle80
The Curragh Join Date: May 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 2,429

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

Hey Scav, the horse was short. A clocker I talked to told me as much the day after the race. Now if you want his number you can feel free to tell a guy who has trained grade one winners and watches every horses work every day that you know more sitting in your house in Chicago, pardon me while I trust in the other guy more ok?

[Scav]

Just saying, these were things that you said and I said I would note when we got the sheet number, that is all, he paired exactly, three in a row now actually

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

"And I find it beyond incredible that anyone who claims to be an expert could say that the horse ran as well yesterday as he did in his prior races. I have no knowledge of his sheet numbers or Beyer from yesterday's race but its 1-9 that he takes a significant drop in figs on Rags, Thoro graph, and Beyer. To make it sound like he ran his typical race and simply got beaten to me is as far fetched as the tampa bay Devil rays winning the World Series this year.
"

"We simply disagree on that race. His opinion that Songster wasn't as good as advertised in general is one with merit that I happen to agree with. You may remember how gleeful I was when Bling got what I felt was a bad ride and I was lucky to have Songster get a perfect trip that day.
That certainly is a different issue however than the fact that the field he was facing yesterday was less than stellar to say the least. We disagree that he ran the same race as he had always run and I think that when the figs come out you will see that he droppewd severely on both sheet companies and on the beyers."

Ah and the one I was looking for

08-01-2006, 03:05 PM
oracle80
The Curragh Join Date: May 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 2,429

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

I'm still waiting for oracle to "retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas". I suspect I will have a long wait.

Oracle spent an entire thread calling Albertrani a liar. Let me see. A guy says he's going to do something ("offer Mea Culpas"), but then doesn't do it. Who's the liar?

Just to be clear, I have nothing against oracle. I think oracle is one of the most knowledgeable people on Derby Trail--there's no question about that, IMO. But he has more than a little problem admitting he was wrong.

--Dunbar

[Nostradamus]

I don't think Songster or Bluegrass Cat is what people think they are. In my opinion they are both nice horses running against two monsters. I don't see either race being close. HH and Bernardini walk in both. I could see HH and Bernardini both challenging stakes records.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

You guys are nuts(to try and predict what is coming in there.)It's like trying to write a letter while on a spinning tea cup ride.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm still waiting for oracle to "retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas". I suspect I will have a long wait.

Oracle spent an entire thread calling Albertrani a liar. Let me see. A guy says he's going to do something ("offer Mea Culpas"), but then doesn't do it. Who's the liar?

Just to be clear, I have nothing against oracle. I think oracle is one of the most knowledgeable people on Derby Trail--there's no question about that, IMO. But he has more than a little problem admitting he was wrong.

--Dunbar

I am not wrong. And the fact that the guy can't get arrested at the biggest meet in the world, that everyone points for, bears that out.
Lemme ask you Dunbar, how many people here were waiting for him to win a race since I ranted about him to say I told you so. You pathetic swines, not one win since then. Guys 1- for the meet with a zillion dollars in horseflesh under his barn. Hes had a horrible meet, horrible.
Many trainers have had similiar slumps when they get their first "big horse". I guess the theory is that so much worry and time and stress go into the big horse that perhaps the others aren't quite as important. Whatever it is, you swines have been waiting four weeks to say I told you so, and he hasn't won one yet at THE MEET that matters more than any other.
Court Folly couldn't get close to lesser horses in his prior efforts, and you want me to concede that all of a sudden he has the talent and moreso, of Too Much Bling. Sorry, I just can't do so. Its not probable or logical.
I hope TA turns it around, hope he does well with his horses, but his meet has been an abject disaster and while you all have been waiting to say "I told you so" after a winner, you have failed.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I also think that Songster can upset Henny in the Kins Bishop. He was just dead short last time and if he fires his "a" race he can beat Henny.

Henny Hughes is far too scary as a betting proposition.

He's enormously talented ... but has had only one race in 10 months ... has never won a stakes race beyond 6f ... and is a serious candidate for a bounce or a breakdown.

Songster is not as brilliant ... but has far more depth ... and the needed experience and conditioning to succeed in a trying test.

If Henny pulls this one off ... he's truly special.

[LARHAGE]

I see Songster and Henny going at it early, with this size of a field I would think the possibility of an upset is far more likely here than in the Travers. I'm not sure yet who I like to nail the top two, but I surely envision that scenario.